What state will be the biggest surprise on election night?

[DFLofMN]

Since most of us seem to look for and slice any poll we can what state could be the surprise Bush or Kerry that was not expected by the polls for Bush or Kerry??  There are quite a few here and I don't discount the possibility of my own being one of them. 

NH, ME, PA, NJ, OH, DE, WV, VA, NC, FL, AR, TN, MN, IA, WI, MO, NM, CO, NV, AZ, WA, OR??? 

Hell, I am will to listen to anything somewhat reasonable.

[TheWildCard]

Months ago during the primaries I said Wisconsin would be the surprise state that'd swing to Bush! I'll stick with that.

[Sam Spade]

I'll go away from the normal states and pick a weird one:

I don't think it'll change status, but it will be much closer than people are looking at and is one of the few places that historically has what I call "incumbent bias".

Hawaii

[J. J.]

NJ wouldn't really surprise me, but PA sure would.

[Giant Saguaro]

PA - yeah, Bush is going to edge out Kerry! There's my surprise and what a shocker it would be.

[Akno21]

Kerry will carry Nevada, Bush will carry Maine.

[Alcon]

I think that in a sweeping upstate, John Kerry will surge only to fall to a grand defeat, picking up only 7 electoral votes, which shockingly will come from the states of Idaho and Wyoming.

Well, in reality, this is sort of hard to answer - after all, if I say, it wouldn't be a surprise, would it? But I'll say that the margin in Virginia and North Carolina will be surprisingly close, and Nevada will be closer than many expect.

[A18]

In a close race, I predict that Virginia will be 54% for Bush.

[Dave from Michigan]

Michigan for Bush

[lidaker]

Arkansas for Kerry?

[Horus]

Alaska closer than expected?

Colorado for Kerry?

[The Vorlon]

Florida by a much larger margin than expected

[jacob_101]

Probably PA for Bush.....although I bet there won't any big surprises the way we track things...lol

[Giant Saguaro]

For Kerry, Nevada would surprise me. To recap, PA for Bush and NV for Kerry, which I don't think he'll get. But of the realistic surprises, that's it.

[agcatter]

If you believe the Washington Post, I guess Florida and Ohio for Kerry.

[Shira]

Florida to Kerry by 3% margin.

[Shira]

Florida by a much larger margin than expected

Margin to whom?

[Rococo4]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

[TheOldLine]

Months ago during the primaries I said Wisconsin would be the surprise state that'd swing to Bush! I'll stick with that.

At this point, I think that Bush is the favorite in WI....

TheOldLine

[TheOldLine]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

I like Vorlon's prediction of FL being not particularly close....although the networks are going to be so reluctant to call FL, we may not realize that it was what it was until later.

While WV was the surprise of the last election, that was because Bush was campaigning hard there while Gore was "refusing to take the bait" and send resources to what he viewed as a safe state.   Its hard for me to see Kerry taking WV unless Kerry suddenly ups his ad buys there and sends himself or Edwards to make a visit or two.

If there is a big surprise to be had on election day, I think that it might be Minnesota.   Most of the MSM isn't taking MN as a battlegroun all-that-seriously, but I think that it may be trending culturally conservative faster than people think, and might produce a similar WV-style surprise this year, producing a solid Bush win *ahead* of his national number, rather than 2 or 3 spots behind it....

Then again, there may not be any surprises, or I could just totally be wrong and Bush takes OR or Kerry takes NV or something like that.

TheOldLine

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Since most of us seem to look for and slice any poll we can what state could be the surprise Bush or Kerry that was not expected by the polls for Bush or Kerry??  There are quite a few here and I don't discount the possibility of my own being one of them. 

NH, ME, PA, NJ, OH, DE, WV, VA, NC, FL, AR, TN, MN, IA, WI, MO, NM, CO, NV, AZ, WA, OR??? 

Hell, I am will to listen to anything somewhat reasonable.

The biggest surprise outcomes that are within the realm of possibility are Kerry in AR, AZ, CO, or VA, or Bush in PA or WA (OR, MN, NH, and ME would not be shockers).

But I don't think any of those are going to happen.

I think the surprise of the night is that Bush will win big (around +7) in Florida.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'll go away from the normal states and pick a weird one:

I don't think it'll change status, but it will be much closer than people are looking at and is one of the few places that historically has what I call "incumbent bias".

Hawaii

Oh, that reminds me of my outrageous prediction: Kerry gets within 15 of Bush in Idaho. :-)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Michigan for Bush

Ooooh, good one!  I forgot about that.  It's polling tantalizingly close.

If all the stuffy western MI folks come out, they could certainly win it for Bush.

Do hardcore Calvinists believe in voting, since the outcome is predestined anyway?

[The Vorlon]

Florida by a much larger margin than expected

Margin to whom?

Not telling

[A18]

My election night surprise...

I predict that Bush will get roughly the same % of the vote in Florida as Virginia.