What state will be the biggest surprise on election night?

[Gabu]

Just you wait!  Electoral-vote.com said so!

[RN]

Bush will easily win Florida.  That will be the biggest suprise.  Also Bush winning Wisconsin, which may be or may not really be a suprise since it was close in 2000.

[Reds4]

WV goes to Kerry

IA and WI to Bush

[Rococo4]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

I like Vorlon's prediction of FL being not particularly close....although the networks are going to be so reluctant to call FL, we may not realize that it was what it was until later.

While WV was the surprise of the last election, that was because Bush was campaigning hard there while Gore was "refusing to take the bait" and send resources to what he viewed as a safe state.   Its hard for me to see Kerry taking WV unless Kerry suddenly ups his ad buys there and sends himself or Edwards to make a visit or two.

If there is a big surprise to be had on election day, I think that it might be Minnesota.   Most of the MSM isn't taking MN as a battlegroun all-that-seriously, but I think that it may be trending culturally conservative faster than people think, and might produce a similar WV-style surprise this year, producing a solid Bush win *ahead* of his national number, rather than 2 or 3 spots behind it....

Then again, there may not be any surprises, or I could just totally be wrong and Bush takes OR or Kerry takes NV or something like that.

TheOldLine

Dems outnumbering registered Repubs in WV by 2 to 1 just makes me a little uneasy......I dont think Bush winning there in 00 means that the state turned Red (or in the case of this board, blue)  gun issues killed gore there in 00 (no pun intended) i dont see that issue helping bush as much there this time.  one plus for bush is that WV is a patriotic state, so that could aid him

[James46]

PA for Bush; election will be decided by 11:00 PM.  (Of course, the lawyers might have something to say about this!)

[James46]

PA for Bush; election will be decided in time for 11:00 PM news (EST)  (Of course, lawyers may have something to say about this)

[??????????]

NJ to Bush.

[No more McShame]

Florida to Bush by a sizable margin, same with Ohio.  Bush also takes Wisc. & Iowa.  Kerry wins Nevada and New Hampshire.

[Citizen James]

VA goes to Kerry on high turnout in the NoVa suburbs.

Kerry edges by in CO, just to have the electorial amendment pass.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Arkansas to Kerry

[Gustaf]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

I like Vorlon's prediction of FL being not particularly close....although the networks are going to be so reluctant to call FL, we may not realize that it was what it was until later.

While WV was the surprise of the last election, that was because Bush was campaigning hard there while Gore was "refusing to take the bait" and send resources to what he viewed as a safe state.   Its hard for me to see Kerry taking WV unless Kerry suddenly ups his ad buys there and sends himself or Edwards to make a visit or two.

If there is a big surprise to be had on election day, I think that it might be Minnesota.   Most of the MSM isn't taking MN as a battlegroun all-that-seriously, but I think that it may be trending culturally conservative faster than people think, and might produce a similar WV-style surprise this year, producing a solid Bush win *ahead* of his national number, rather than 2 or 3 spots behind it....

Then again, there may not be any surprises, or I could just totally be wrong and Bush takes OR or Kerry takes NV or something like that.

TheOldLine

Dems outnumbering registered Repubs in WV by 2 to 1 just makes me a little uneasy......I dont think Bush winning there in 00 means that the state turned Red (or in the case of this board, blue)  gun issues killed gore there in 00 (no pun intended) i dont see that issue helping bush as much there this time.  one plus for bush is that WV is a patriotic state, so that could aid him

Guns don't kill people, they kill Democrats?

I concur with Alkon in that surprises aren't surprises if we predict them...I don't really see PA for Bush as that much of a surprise. I would say that Bush winning Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey or Oregon would be surprising. It would also be surprising if Kerry wins Arkansas, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Missouri, West Virginia..........

[Huckleberry Finn]

I think there won't be a real big surprise, but Nevada or Colorado to Kerry or Mighigan, Pennsylvania or Minnesota to Bush are most likely surprises.

[Light Touch]

Bush wins ME or MN.
No (good) surprises for Kerry.

[elcorazon]

I don't think any of these will happen, but I think the surprise could be Kerry carrying the southwest (NM, AZ, CO, NV) or Bush carrying the upper midwest (less surprising, but still- MN, WI & IA); OR for Bush or ME for Bush could also happen fairly easily.  The only other states that I think could surprise for Kerry are WV & VA, but they are clearly longshots... I guess Missouri is possible, but I suspect MO's days as a swing state are over.

[Wakie]

I think VA will be much closer than expected but Bush will still get it.  On the other hand MI and NJ will be closer than expected but will both be Kerry wins.

The shocking switch states ... NV and WI.

[HoopsCubs]

If Kerry won Missouri, that would really surprise me.
If Bush won Michigan, that would really surprise me.

Hoops

[Redefeatbush04]

Colorado amendment gets passed: Colorado for ......both

[ThePrezMex]

This is my surprise scenario, which would yield a 269-269 tie by the way:



Or this other one:

[TheOldLine]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

I like Vorlon's prediction of FL being not particularly close....although the networks are going to be so reluctant to call FL, we may not realize that it was what it was until later.

While WV was the surprise of the last election, that was because Bush was campaigning hard there while Gore was "refusing to take the bait" and send resources to what he viewed as a safe state.   Its hard for me to see Kerry taking WV unless Kerry suddenly ups his ad buys there and sends himself or Edwards to make a visit or two.

If there is a big surprise to be had on election day, I think that it might be Minnesota.   Most of the MSM isn't taking MN as a battlegroun all-that-seriously, but I think that it may be trending culturally conservative faster than people think, and might produce a similar WV-style surprise this year, producing a solid Bush win *ahead* of his national number, rather than 2 or 3 spots behind it....

Then again, there may not be any surprises, or I could just totally be wrong and Bush takes OR or Kerry takes NV or something like that.

TheOldLine

Dems outnumbering registered Repubs in WV by 2 to 1 just makes me a little uneasy......I dont think Bush winning there in 00 means that the state turned Red (or in the case of this board, blue)  gun issues killed gore there in 00 (no pun intended) i dont see that issue helping bush as much there this time.  one plus for bush is that WV is a patriotic state, so that could aid him

The question is "what produces an upset?"   To me, the upset formula is a candidate spending precious advertising dollars, staffing assignments, and most especially, candidate visits on a State that appears to be a longshot, while the opponent does not reciprocate - believing it to simply be a diversionary tactic.   Its nearly inconceivable to me that Kerry could produce an upset without him nor Edwards visiting WV once before election day. 

On the other hand, we have a situation right now where Bush is travelling to Minnesota, but MN is *not* getting visits from Kerry or Edwards.   That's the first part of the formula.   

TheOldLine

[dougrhess]

Real fun surprise: tie in the EC with no defections. Bush is prez and Edwards is V-P.  Turns out Bush is a robot, Cheney kills Bush before the EC meets so that he is Prez and Edwards decides that trial lawyering is more lucrative and quits.

I got this out of a Lynn Cheney novel.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

For people who play close attention to this stuff, the likeliest big surprise would be Bush taking Minnesota.

For the general public, the biggest surprise is likely to be a split Maine EV, since many of them think that it is winner-take-all in every State.

[bushforever]

I would be really surprised if Bush got either Washington or Oregon.  I would also be surprised and very sad if Kerry wins period.

[classical liberal]

I say NV is the surprise.

Nobody in NE-02 knows that the district could break with the rest of the state => no chance of an upset CD split so my old prediction is shot.

However in NV, there has been only 1 poll since the debates started and it was a SUSA where the sample blew up, reweighting the sample to 2000 turnout (which will in all likelyhood closely mirror turnout this time) moves the spread from Bush +4 to Kerry +0.4.  That lines up with a Mason-Dixon showing the race at Bush +5 when the nation was Bush +5-6 (pre-debate).  While the poll average on this site says Bush +5, it is an average over data as old as mid-September (a completely different race from today).

[painted_black]

Big surprises would be any two of these states going to Kerry:

Arkansas
Colorado
New Mexico
Iowa
Nevada

The REALLY  big surprises, however,  could well be any or all of the Virginias and/or the Carolinas going to Kerry. From what I've seen, it looks like Bush's lead is slipping a bit in these states....dare we hope?

[Alcon]

South Carolina is definitely NOT in play, so it's Carolina signular.