If Clinton was the nominee, how would have Oklahoma voted?

[President Mitt]

Obviously probably still for McCain, but by what margin?

[tmthforu94]

Well, the one poll I saw for Oklahoma showed McCain up by 8 or so. With Palin as the VP nominee, and guessing Clinton chose Bayh, it would be something like...

McCain/Palin: 54.76%
Clinton/Bayh: 45:24%

[Joe Republic]

Texaslefty told me so.

[Nym90]

McCain would've won by at least 20, probably more like 25. Clinton wouldn't have done as differently from Obama as some people like to believe in most states.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Probably 60-40, give or take a couple points.

[Mechaman]

McCain would've won by at least 20, probably more like 25. Clinton wouldn't have done as differently from Obama as some people like to believe in most states.

Yes,

George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 65.6%-34.4%, which was only minisculely less than McCain's 65.65%-34.35% victory over Barack Obama. I bet my left nut that the total wouldn'tve increased that much in a bad year for Republicans if it weren't for Sarah Palin being on the Republican ticket. The sudden appearance of Crazy Hockey Mom Palin gave the GOP more votes than any race motivated reason could have. That and rumors that Obama is an evil socialist (the rumor of which is almost universally accepted among the general Okie populace).

Now let us say that Hillary Clinton did win the nomination and chose Evan Bayh as her VP choice. In a perfect world where the Lewinsky Affair never happened, Hillary would've done pretty damn good (losing by only 5% maybe, I doubt if events like 9/11 happened she would be able to win). But this is no perfect world, Bill Clinton liked em chubby and that destroyed both his and Hillary's reputation among Okies. Many saw Hillary not just flat out saying "screw you Bill" and leaving the White House with her bags as a sign of weakness. That plus rumors that she is a closet socialist lesbian (not joking). With Evan Bayh on the ticket it would help Hillary a little, but nowhere as near as much as Palin helps McCain. In fact Hillary being a woman running for president would probably hurt her just as much (if not worse) than Obama being black did (which was actually quite minute in the grand scheme of things). Expect the same uber spin game done on Obama done on Hillary (that she will tax you to death blah blah blah), except with a greater focus on a potential Universal Healthcare Plan (which was one of the defining parts of Hillary's campaign) instead of increased taxes.

With all the above stated, I believe at best Hillary wins a few counties in southeast Oklahoma and McCain beats her with around 58.5% (I think this may actually be too generous) of the vote (the Bayh Factor as well as closeness to Arkansas and some Okies remembering the Clinton Age would lessen the blow of the GOP's merciless campaigning). She would also win a bit more of the populist vote (ie ObamaOklahoma type voters) than Obama did. Most likely McCain wins with 61% of the vote.

[Mechaman]

Texaslefty told me so.

Goldmined

[RIP Robert H Bork]

About twenty points (probably a bit higher actually).

[Sasquatch]

McCain - 61%
Clinton - 39%



Why is Oklahoma so anti-3rd party?

[Meeker]

McCain - 61%
Clinton - 39%



Why is Oklahoma so anti-3rd party?

Restrictive ballot access backlash due to the Socialist Party doing so well there decades ago.

[Mechaman]

McCain - 61%
Clinton - 39%



Why is Oklahoma so anti-3rd party?

Because of our insane ballot access laws only far right wing crazies and DINOs of T-Rex proportions can run (congressional race wise).

That and Oklahoma is UnMurican!

Restrictive ballot access backlash due to the Socialist Party doing so well there decades ago.

BTW, good percentages.

[Husker]

McCain would've won by at least 20, probably more like 25. Clinton wouldn't have done as differently from Obama as some people like to believe in most states.

Yes,

George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 65.6%-34.4%, which was only minisculely less than McCain's 65.65%-34.35% victory over Barack Obama. I bet my left nut that the total wouldn'tve increased that much in a bad year for Republicans if it weren't for Sarah Palin being on the Republican ticket. The sudden appearance of Crazy Hockey Mom Palin gave the GOP more votes than any race motivated reason could have. That and rumors that Obama is an evil socialist (the rumor of which is almost universally accepted among the general Okie populace).

Now let us say that Hillary Clinton did win the nomination and chose Evan Bayh as her VP choice. In a perfect world where the Lewinsky Affair never happened, Hillary would've done pretty damn good (losing by only 5% maybe, I doubt if events like 9/11 happened she would be able to win). But this is no perfect world, Bill Clinton liked em chubby and that destroyed both his and Hillary's reputation among Okies. Many saw Hillary not just flat out saying "screw you Bill" and leaving the White House with her bags as a sign of weakness. That plus rumors that she is a closet socialist lesbian (not joking). With Evan Bayh on the ticket it would help Hillary a little, but nowhere as near as much as Palin helps McCain. In fact Hillary being a woman running for president would probably hurt her just as much (if not worse) than Obama being black did (which was actually quite minute in the grand scheme of things). Expect the same uber spin game done on Obama done on Hillary (that she will tax you to death blah blah blah), except with a greater focus on a potential Universal Healthcare Plan (which was one of the defining parts of Hillary's campaign) instead of increased taxes.

With all the above stated, I believe at best Hillary wins a few counties in southeast Oklahoma and McCain beats her with around 58.5% (I think this may actually be too generous) of the vote (the Bayh Factor as well as closeness to Arkansas and some Okies remembering the Clinton Age would lessen the blow of the GOP's merciless campaigning). She would also win a bit more of the populist vote (ie ObamaOklahoma type voters) than Obama did. Most likely McCain wins with 64% of the vote.

Having spent a fair amount of time in Oklahoma I'd agree with most of this. Hillary would have done better but not by much... 

[phk]

McCain would've won by at least 20, probably more like 25. Clinton wouldn't have done as differently from Obama as some people like to believe in most states.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

McCain - 61%
Clinton - 39%



Why is Oklahoma so anti-3rd party?

Restrictive ballot access backlash due to the Socialist Party doing so well there decades ago.

Getting on for a century ago, now.

[Mechaman]

McCain - 61%
Clinton - 39%



Why is Oklahoma so anti-3rd party?

Restrictive ballot access backlash due to the Socialist Party doing so well there decades ago.

Getting on for a century ago, now.

Those were the days.......

Oklahoma vote percentages:
1908:
Bryan (D): 47.99%
Taft (R): 43.33%
Debbs (S): 8.52%

1912:
Wilson (D): 46.95%
Taft (R): 35.77%
Debbs (S): 16.42%

1916:
Wilson (D): 50.59%
Hughes (R): 33.21%
Benson (S): 15.55%

1920:
Harding (R): 50.11%
Cox (D): 44.61%
Debbs (S): 5.29%

The Socialists were really good at selling themselves to the minorities in the state and were the only political party in Oklahoma who continued to resist the Jim Crow Laws. As you can see the Socialists took a good chunk of the GOP vote in the earlier elections (won't say they cost them the election since some people who usually vote Democrat probably went Socialist during these elections). They would start to lose power after the 1917 after the Green Corn Rebellion (which they received the blame for although it was a spontaneous rebellion).

One of the very few interesting parts of Oklahoma History.

[DariusNJ]

I'd say 38% or so.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

McCain - 61%
Clinton - 39%



Why is Oklahoma so anti-3rd party?

Restrictive ballot access backlash due to the Socialist Party doing so well there decades ago.

Getting on for a century ago, now.

They kept Strom Thurmond off the ballot as well.

[RI]

McCain - 61%
Clinton - 39%



Why is Oklahoma so anti-3rd party?

Restrictive ballot access backlash due to the Socialist Party doing so well there decades ago.

Getting on for a century ago, now.

They kept Strom Thurmond off the ballot as well.

Not Wallace, Anderson, or Perot, though.

[afrowall]

I would most definitely chose clinton ahead of maccain

[Beet]

I say 57 to 43.

[Hash]

I would most definitely chose clinton ahead of maccain

rofl

[Ebowed]

My best estimate...
John McCain - 65.65%
Hillary Clinton - 34.35%

Sexism "would be the wrong word for it," but there would be a general sense of, well, uneasiness with the concept of a woman being the President of the United States.  There "would be concerns with some of Clinton's associations, too", such as her relationship with former President Bill Clinton, a noted adulterer and proponent of such socialist policies as a public health care option.  And while some of the decent folk of Oklahoma may have voted for Democrats in the past, even as recently as 1996 and 2000, these days concerns over abortion and same-sex marriage would likely outweigh any general agreement with Democratic economic policies.

Anyone who thinks that the difference between Obama and Clinton would have been that great in an area of the country like this is thinking wishfully.

[Mechaman]

My best estimate...
John McCain - 65.65%
Hillary Clinton - 34.35%

Sexism "would be the wrong word for it," but there would be a general sense of, well, uneasiness with the concept of a woman being the President of the United States.  There "would be concerns with some of Clinton's associations, too", such as her relationship with former President Bill Clinton, a noted adulterer and proponent of such socialist policies as a public health care option.  And while some of the decent folk of Oklahoma may have voted for Democrats in the past, even as recently as 1996 and 2000, these days concerns over abortion and same-sex marriage would likely outweigh any general agreement with Democratic economic policies.

Anyone who thinks that the difference between Obama and Clinton would have been that great in an area of the country like this is thinking wishfully.

Exactly.