Albuquerque elects Republican Mayor
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  Albuquerque elects Republican Mayor
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Author Topic: Albuquerque elects Republican Mayor  (Read 1520 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: October 07, 2009, 05:58:08 AM »

R.J.Berry: 32,273 (43.22%)
M.Chavez*: 26,289 (35.21%)
R.Romero: 15,967 (21.38%)

40% is needed to avoid a runoff. Berry is a Republican (and a State Rep), Chavez is a Democrat, was the incumbent Mayor and is a former candidate for Governor (1998), Romero is a Democrat, a former State Senator, PPT and former candidate (2002, 2004) for the NM-1 House seat.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2009, 10:14:16 AM »

Vote splitting... lucky. Well, good for him I guess.
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2009, 11:56:35 AM »

Of perhaps greater importance...the Republicans gained a majority on the Albuquerque City Council. They did this by unseating the left-leaning Democratic candidate on the Upper West Side/District 5, Michael Cadigan. I will admit that I am very happy over that, since I've thought Cadigan didn't represent his constituents well at all and have thought that since shortly after he was initially elected. I also thought his incumbency would give him yet another win, though. And yes, I got to vote in the District 5 race. Wink Not that I'm ecstatic about Lewis - too far right for me - but he IS an improvement on Cadigan.

The City Council, WMS' view:

District 1 - Ken Sanchez, centrist Democrat, close to Chavez and backed him
District 2 - Debbie O'Malley, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 3 - Isaac Benton, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 4 - Brad Winter, center-right Republican, backed Berry
District 5 - *NEW* Dan Lewis, rightist Republican, backed Berry, unseated (as said above) leftist Democrat Michael Cadigan
District 6 - Rey Garduno, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 7 - *NEW* Michael Cook, rightist? Republican, backed Berry? This race was odd because the incumbent, center-right Republican Sally Mayer (who was a staunch advocate for animals) who would likely have won, dropped out to move to Chicago to care for her elderly parents. The lefty opponent forgot to file his candidacy properly. So Cook strolls into this one.
District 8 - Trudy Jones, rightist Republican, backed Berry
District 9 - Don Harris, rightist? Republican, backed Berry

Now, it isn't this simple - most of the past several years the split has been between Pro-Chavez and Anti-Chavez Councillors, and THAT split varied by issue, because sometimes, but not always, the ideology counted. For example, both Mayer and Harris sometimes voted with Chavez more often than The Leftist Bloc (O'Malley, Benton, Garduno, and Cadigan) did. But that varied as well.

So I'm very curious how this new arrangement will work out, since both the dominant aspects of the City Council have changed - Chavez is no longer Mayor, and the Democrats no longer have a majority. The dynamics may be very, very, different than before...it's possible, but not certain, that the Republicans will get their own way there. Then again, Sanchez, White, and Harris have all been known to not vote in party lockstep. This could be entertaining. Smiley

I'll give you all the Major's Race From My Perspective:

Berry - Right
Chavez - Center
Romero - Left

But with plenty of additional local elements, mainly Chavez fatigue after all these years plus various local scandals, issues of interest, and so on and so forth. Although I don't have access to precinct totals and all that, apparently the media and others had general areas hammered out and from what they said there were some big shifts.

The Big Swingy Area, the Northeast Heights (not counting the Republican Far Northeast Heights) swung from Chavez to Berry. Chavez' Stronghold, the West Side, in a surprise to me swung toward Berry as well (I do not know who WON the area, however). And from what the paper is saying, Berry even did well in some places in Central Albuquerque that are usually reliably Democratic. Perhaps it was a broad-based feeling that it was time for a change? It's going to be a while before better data comes out on this.

Ideologically, it seems (from this story and that over the months) that Berry: 1. Took back the Republican votes Chavez had gained in past elections. 2. Won over the Independents. 3. Even dug into the Democratic voters.

Now, I suspect that Berry would've lost a runoff, although I'm not 100% on that because there are odd tactical voters like me that voted for Chavez but would've voted for Berry over Romero in a runoff (yes, I voted for Chavez, for all his flaws - I feel he's a mayor that actually DOES things for the city) so extrapolating meaning outside of Albuquerque is a very iffy measure. Still, I was surprised at how well-organized the Republicans were this time - the NM Reps are not exactly known for their competence in campaigning.

The lefties did not have a good night. Tongue Not only did their cherished candidate poll third (enjoy your 21%! Nyah!) but the Fall of Cadigan hurt them a lot on the City Council. I suspect they thought that Romero would poll first or second and win the runoff, thus leading to Leftist Rule. Instead, they opened the doors for Rightist Rule by splitting the Democratic vote. Whoops. Cheesy

Annoyingly, Proposition 2 passed - up until now, Councilor pay raises had to be approved by the voters, and very rarely were. Wink Now, some damn commission will determine if their salaries will be raised, and of course they will be. A lot. Repeatedly. Roll Eyes There were other propositions, some I backed, some I didn't, but all passed. Oh well.

The transportation tax and the road bonds passed, but I voted for all of them (even though I now own a townhouse and am directly affected by them for once) so yay there.

Well, time to wait to eventually find out the precinct results and see if any good patterns developed...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2009, 12:11:10 PM »

Perhaps the loss of the house seat galvanised Albuquerque Republicans somewhat?
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WMS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2009, 12:18:34 PM »

Perhaps the loss of the house seat galvanised Albuquerque Republicans somewhat?

It could be. The Republicans DID make it a point to try and mobilize their voters for both the Mayoral race and the District 5 race; they had BOTH Heather Wilson AND Stevan Pearce make statements supporting Berry and Lewis, and even campaign a bit for them. The state party wasn't sleeping on this one.

A comment on a blog somewhere or other by the state Dems pointed out that, roughly, 'the Reps were united and the Dems were not', with moderate and leftist Dems splitting badly over this race. Another factor, to be sure.
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