Neal Patel's 2010 US Senate Analysis.

[nkpatel1279]

The following US Senate Seats up for grabs in 2010 are safe due to their homestate popularity and lack of credible challengers.
DEMS-(7) HI(Inouye-D),IN(Bayh-D),MD(Mikulski-D),NY(Schumer-D),ND(Dorgan-D),OR(Wyden-D),and VT(Leahy-D)
REPS-(5) AL(Shelby-R),AZ(McCain-R),ID(Crapo-R),IA(Grassley-R)and UT(Bennett-R).
The following US Senate Seats up for grabs in 2010 are safe due to Partisan demographics and lack of credible challengers.
DEMs-(4) CA(Boxer-D),NY(Gillibrand-D),WA(Murray-D),and WI(Feingold-D).
REPS- (6)AK(Murkowski-R),GA(Isakson-R),KS(OPEN-Brownback-R),OK(Coburn-R),SC(DeMint)and SD(Thune-R).
The following US Senate Seats are competitive but one party has an advantage due to Top Tier candidate recruit or weak opposition from the other candidate or partisan demographics.
DEMS- (4)IL(OPEN-Burris-D),MO(OPEN-Bond-R),OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R),and PA(Specter-D).
REPS- (4)FL(OPEN-LeMeiux-R),KY(OPEN-Bunning-R),LA(Vitter-R),and NC(Burr-R).
The following US Senate Seats are pure Tossups- (No Clear Favorite).
AR(Lincoln-D),CO(Bennett-D),CT(Dodd-D),DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D),NV(Reid-D),and NH(OPEN-Gregg-R).
AR(Lincoln-D) is vulnerable because she represents a State that is becoming increasingly Conservative at the Federal Level and she has mediocre approval ratings. If 2010 becomes a neutral but Republican leaning year- Lincoln loses. Lincoln will need the Clintons,Pryors,and Dale Bumpers out on the trail campaigning for her in order for her to have a fighting chance.
CO(Bennett-D)-is not that well known. He was appointed to that seat. He is facing a tough primary challenge against a Speaker of House and General Election challenge against a former
Lt Governor. This race will be determined on how Bennett performs on the campaign trail.
CT(Dodd-D)-vulnerable due to personal scandals but CT is a blue state- It is unlikely they will send a Republican who will vote against the Obama agenda 75% of the time.
DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)-This race is going down the wire. It will be tough to predict. Both candidates are well liked and well known. Biden-D and Castle-R campaign and debate performance will determine the outcome. Castle-R has the incumbency advantage-being a third US Senator from DE and a former Governor. Biden-D will have to prove to the voters in DE he has the same strengths as his father.
NV-Reid was never that popular in NV and being in the leadership role makes him more vulnerable. NV is a purple state and Republicans don't have any top tier candidates plus Gibbons,Ensign,and Krolicki-R are making the Republican brand in NV unpopular.
NH-(OPEN-Gregg-R)- similar to CO- Candidates campaign and debate performance will determine the outcome.

[nkpatel1279]

Regarding the 2010 US Senate Election cycle.
The following Seats are going to be safe.
1)AL-Shelby-R
2)AK-Murkowski-R
3)AZ-McCain-R
4)CA-Boxer-D
5)GA-Isakson-R
6)HI-Inouye-D
7)ID-Crapo-R
8)IN-Bayh-D
9)IA-Grassley-R
10)KS-OPEN-Brownback-R(Jerry Moran-R).
11)MD-Mikulski-D
12)NY-A Schumer-D
13)NY-B Gillibrand-D- unless if Pataki-runs- race will be competitve but Democrat Favored.
14)ND- Dorgan-D
15)OK-Coburn-R
16)OR-Wyden-D
17)SC-DeMint-R
18)SD-Thune-R
19)UT-Bennett-R
20)VT-Leahy-D
21)WA-Murray-D
22)WI-Feingold-D

That leaves us 14 Competive US Senate Seats up for grabs in 2010.

[nkpatel1279]

The Competitive Seats plus Democratic Favored seats are
1)IL-OPEN-Burris-D- (Alexi Giannoulis-D)
2)MO-OPEN-Bond-R-(Robin Carnahan-D) +1D
3)OH-OPEN-Voinovich-R-(Lee Fisher-D)+1D
4)PA-Specter-D

The Competitive Seats plus Republican Favored seats are
1)FL-OPEN-LeMeiux-R- (Charlie Crist-R)
2)KY-OPEN-Bunning-R (Trey Grayson-R)
3)LA-Vitter-R
4)NC-Burr-R

The remaining 6 seats are in the pure Tossup category.

[nkpatel1279]

5 Seats in the Tossup category are held by Democrats(AR,CO,CT,DE,and NV) 1 is held by Republican (NH).
Republicans will probally hold onto NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)based on polling which shows Ayotte-R leading Hodes-D by a high single digit margin.
That leaves us Tossup Democratic held seats in AR,CO,CT,DE,and NV.
DE-(OPEN-Kaufman-D)is a pure tossup seat- Both sides have popular top tier Statewide elected officials- Republicans have Mike Castle-R who is basically the third US Senator from DE- He served 9 terms as an At Large US House Member from DE. and prior to that serve 2 terms as Governor and one term as Lt Governor. Castle-R is a moderate in the mold of Olympia Snowe. Democrats have Beau Biden-D son of VP President and popular former US Senator Joe Biden. Beau Biden-D is also the current Attorney General of DE- elected in 2006. Castle has an early advantage based on high name recognition,moderate voting record and electoral experience. Biden-D has a great potential of overcoming Castle's early lead due to help from the Obama Biden Whitehouse. DSCC,DNC,and Biden has the ability of turning Castle into an old crank who is out of touch. Biden's campaign and debate ability will determine the outcome of this race.
CT(Dodd-D) and NV(Reid-D) are very unpopular due to scandals or national dissatisfaction. Dodd-CT and Reid-NV are able to win if economy recovers and health care passes. if not- they need to go higly negative on their Republican challengers-

[nkpatel1279]

AR(Lincoln-D) represents a state that is trending Republican and the liberal base is unhappy with Lincoln-D. Lincoln will win once the sane voters of AR realize whoever the Republicans nominate will be another James Inhofe/Jim Bunning/or David Vitter.
CO-(Bennett-D)-is probally going to lose- since- he has low name recognition prior to getting appointed to the seat. He is facing a tough primary against Former House Speaker Andy Romanoff and has a top tier Republican challenger- Lt Governor Jane Norton.