Poll: Bush – Kerry gap on 10/17/2004

[Shira]

In the three days rolling Rasmussen’s polls the differences between Bush and Kerry were:

2.2% on 10/14/2004

3.5% on 10/15/2004

2.1% on 10/16/2004 (today)

What will be tomorrow’s gap?

[The Vorlon]

In the three days rolling Rasmussen’s polls the differences between Bush and Kerry were:

2.2% on 10/14/2004

3.5% on 10/15/2004

2.1% on 10/16/2004 (today)

What will be tomorrow’s gap?

I'll take "weekend effect" for 1.8% Alex

Monday morning will be tied +/-

[CARLHAYDEN]

Bush up by 2.5 in the polls.

You're right that the weekend polls underestimate Bush's real strength.

[Whacker77]

I'm surprised by the Rasmussen numbers.  It looks like Bush is starting to slip.  Weekends are always volitile, but Kerry looks to be gaining.

[agcatter]

Once and for all, is there or is there not a weekend effect with Rasmussen?  I've heard both views.  What do the stats say?

[Reds4]

AgCat, the last two weekends have definitely had a weekend effect on Bush in Rasmussen polls, I believe other non-weighted polls have more effect, but it still has some.
Vorlon, Can you tell what the numbers were for last night in rasmussen? Did Kerry have a good night or did a strong bush sample roll off?

[The Vorlon]

Once and for all, is there or is there not a weekend effect with Rasmussen?  I've heard both views.  What do the stats say?

He gets way more Dems in his samples on weekends.

He weights a good chunk of it away.

It is still there.

because he weights over a 3 day roll, bush typically loses about 1% by Sunday, but gets it back by Wednesday or so.

[Shira]

AgCat, the last two weekends have definitely had a weekend effect on Bush in Rasmussen polls, I believe other non-weighted polls have more effect, but it still has some.
Vorlon, Can you tell what the numbers were for last night in rasmussen? Did Kerry have a good night or did a strong bush sample roll off?

According to my assumptions/calculations the daily gaps were:
10/09 +5.6
10/10 +3.4
10/11 +1.8
10/12 -0.4
10/13 +2.8
10/14 +4.2
10/15 +3.5
10/16 -1.4 (today)