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  Assuming Hoffman wins in NY-23- NY-23 will be eliminated in redistricting.
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Author Topic: Assuming Hoffman wins in NY-23- NY-23 will be eliminated in redistricting.  (Read 5434 times)
nkpatel1279
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« on: October 31, 2009, 02:26:20 pm »

I took the GOP areas of the current NY-26(Lee)-Orleans,Genessee,Wyoming,Livingston and Monroe plus the GOP areas of the current NY-23- (Hamilton,Fulton,Onieda,Madison,Lewis,plus Herkimer- Northern Cortland, Cayuhaga and Wayne county.
I put Monroe County entirely in Slaughter(NY-28) District.
I gave Maffei(NY-25)Oswego,Jefferson,and portion of St Lawrence from the old NY-23 plus Onandago(Syracuse) base. Maffei's Syracuse base is great to survive.
The remaining areas of the old NY-23 was given to NY-20(Murphy-D).
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Sensei
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2009, 05:53:07 pm »

You don't say
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2009, 07:03:09 pm »

I didn't read the topic post [and likely neither did the author] but the title is true.

What's actually relevant is whoever wins in 2010.  Hoffman could lose next week but still win in 2010 and have his district be eliminated.  I think his campaign has been intentionally self-conscious about this from day one, and thus was willing to let either the Democrat of the liberal Republican win for precisely that reason.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2009, 07:03:40 pm »

There's no feasible way to fuse NY-26 and NY-23.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2009, 07:06:52 pm »

I've never thought about this, but who actually controls which individual district/representative is booted out when a state loses representation?
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2009, 07:23:46 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2009, 07:26:12 pm by Lunar »

I've never thought about this, but who actually controls which individual district/representative is booted out when a state loses representation?


it changes state by state, some states have gerrymanders and some states have incumbent protection systems.

Typically the worst gerrymanders occur when one side [state legislature, usually] gerrymanders it and then loses power by the next decade and the otherside gerrymanders it back further.

In this case, New York's redistricting is going to be controlled by Democrats who will be trying their damnedest to eliminate either NY-23 or King's district in Long Island [much harder].  The Democrats really don't technically lose too much in the long-term by losing NY-23, it's mostly just symbolic and kinda funny how bad the GOP is in the Northeast.

and if your state is trying to protect majority-minority districts, you can even get an odd coalition of African-American Democrats and Republicans, or Democrats doing stuff like this to fellow Democrats Smiley

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muon2
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2009, 07:29:59 pm »

I've never thought about this, but who actually controls which individual district/representative is booted out when a state loses representation?


NY uses an advisory commission appointed by the legislature, but in the end the vote on a specific plan is by the legislature. The Gov in NY has the ability to veto a plan from the legislature.
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muon2
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2009, 07:38:12 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2009, 07:40:00 pm by muon2 »

I've never thought about this, but who actually controls which individual district/representative is booted out when a state loses representation?


it changes state by state, some states have gerrymanders and some states have incumbent protection systems.

Typically the worst gerrymanders occur when one side [state legislature, usually] gerrymanders it and then loses power by the next decade and the otherside gerrymanders it back further.

In this case, New York's redistricting is going to be controlled by Democrats who will be trying their damnedest to eliminate either NY-23 or King's district in Long Island [much harder].  The Democrats really don't technically lose too much in the long-term by losing NY-23, it's mostly just symbolic and kinda funny how bad the GOP is in the Northeast.

and if your state is trying to protect majority-minority districts, you can even get an odd coalition of African-American Democrats and Republicans, or Democrats doing stuff like this to fellow Democrats Smiley



Interestingly, IL-4 was legitimately created in 1991 to be the state's first Hispanic district. In order to preserve three black-majority districts the district had to connect by a thread around the the western end of IL-7.

In 2001 the district was maintained as a case of incumbent protection. The district survived court challege on the incumbency factor and was not considered a gerrymander based solely on race.

A critical question for 2011 will be whether to split the district into NW and SW pieces and create two 60% Hispanic districts in place of one 75% Hispanic district.

PS. It would sure help if nkpatel posted maps to go with these threads. I have serious questions about population and contiguity, but can't really tell from the description alone.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2009, 05:28:41 am »

PS. It would sure help if nkpatel posted maps to go with these threads. I have serious questions about population and contiguity, but can't really tell from the description alone.

Feel free to ask nkpatel any question you like, but you might find a more worthwhile activity in conversing with a deaf-blind-mute through a brick wall.
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2009, 07:55:03 am »

PS. It would sure help if nkpatel posted maps to go with these threads. I have serious questions about population and contiguity, but can't really tell from the description alone.

Feel free to ask nkpatel any question you like, but you might find a more worthwhile activity in conversing with a deaf-blind-mute through a brick wall.

I've noticed that nkpatel never directly responds. However, I did point out an error in one of his posts and when the post was reiterated it was changed to reflect what I had said. I would conclude that replies are read, so I can always hope that this one is as well.
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2009, 11:39:49 am »

http://www.personalityforge.com/dynachat.php?BotID=24007&MID=23957

he reads what you write too, but he has about five hundred times the personality
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2009, 01:37:21 pm »

I just finished playing with the Daves Redistricting Software trying to redraw the IL US House Districts for 2010. Here is what I got.
IL-1(Rush-D)- I removed the Northwestern portion of the current IL-1 and added the Cook County and East Will County portion of the old IL-13 and Northern portion of the current IL-2- Remains a CBC majority District.
IL-2(Jackson-D)- I expanded it down south taking the Eastern Will and Kankakee portion of the current IL-11.
IL-3(Lipinski-D)- I removed the northern portion of the current IL-3 and added the Northwestern portion of the current IL-1 and East DuPage portion of the current IL-13 and Southern portion of the current IL-6- Remains a Safe DEM Seat.
IL-4(Guiteriez-D)- I removed the northern part of the current IL-4 and added the Northern portion of the current IL-3 and Southeastern portion of the current IL-6. Remains a Hispanic majority District.
IL-5(Quigley-D)- I removed the Southern portions of the current IL-5 and added the Northern DuPage portion of the current IL-6. remains a Safe DEM District.

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2009, 01:50:46 pm »

IL-6(new-D)- The new IL-6 is designed as a 2nd Hispanic Majority District- It includes the Northern part of the current IL-4 the Southern Part of the current IL-5, the South Eastern part of the current IL-9 and the Eastern portion of the current IL-6.
IL-7(OPEN-Davis-D)- The new IL-7 moves west taking the western loop of the current IL-4 and the Eastern portion of the current IL-6- Remains a CBC majority District.
IL-8(Bean-D)- Some parts of Cook County was removed and the NorthEast Kane County from the current IL-14 was added. Bean-D is safe regardless.
IL-9(Schakowsky-D)- The SouthEast portion along with some Communities in the North was removed from the current IL-9 and added the Cook County portions of the current IL-6 and the some Cook County portions from the current IL-8- Remains a Safe DEM seat.
IL-10(OPEN-Seals or Hamos-D)- I added some communities in the northern part of the current IL-9 to the new IL-10-giving whoever wins in 2010 a Safe DEM seat.
IL-11(Halverson-D)- The Eastern Will and Kankakee County along with the NorthWestern Joliet portion of the current IL-11 was removed and the Putnam,Bureau,Marshall,Stark,Knox,Peoria,from the current IL-18 and some communities in Bloomington from the current IL-15 was added. giving Halverson a competitive but Democratic favored seat.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2009, 02:01:54 pm »

IL-12(Costello-D)- I expanded the IL-12 up North taking all of Western Madison County and Jersey and Greene County portions of the current IL-19. Safe Dem seat.
IL-13(Roskam-R vs Biggert-R)- This includes the DuPage and Kendall portions of the current IL-14, The Western Will and DuPage portion of the current IL-13 and Western DuPage portion of the current IL-6. The demographics are similar to current IL-6 and IL-13.
IL-14(Foster-D)- While DuPage and Kendall was removed, I added DeKalb and Eastern Ogle County portion of the current IL-16 and the Henry and Knox County portion of the current IL-17. Remains a Democratic Favored seat for Foster-D.
IL-15(Johnson-R vs Schimkus-R)- It includes Counties in the Eastern portion of the current IL-15th and the current IL-19. However their homes are not in the current IL-15. The district is home to former US Rep David Phelps.
IL-16(Manzullo-R)- DeKalb and Eastern portions of the current IL-16 was removed and the Whiteside and Northern Rock Island portion of the current IL-17th was added. IL-16 is more Democratic than its current form. Seat is likely to go Democratic if Manzullo retires.
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2009, 02:09:15 pm »

In this case, New York's redistricting is going to be controlled by Democrats who will be trying their damnedest to eliminate either NY-23 or King's district in Long Island [much harder].  The Democrats really don't technically lose too much in the long-term by losing NY-23, it's mostly just symbolic and kinda funny how bad the GOP is in the Northeast.

You're assuming- perhaps wrongly - that the Democrats will control the NYS Assembly, Senate and Governorship after the 2010 elections.  They almost certainly will control the Assembly and probably the governorship (assuming Paterson doesn't somehow survive a primary), but the NYS Senate is still closely contested.  Republicans could retake control in 2010, even if a Democrat or two doesn't try to stage another leadership coup in between now and then.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2009, 02:13:44 pm »

IL-17(Hare-D)- Whiteside,Knox,Henry,and Northern Rock Island portion of the current IL-17th was removed - Sangamon portions of the current IL-18 and IL-19 was added along with Mason and Schuyler county portion of the current IL-18 and Montgomery and Bond County portions of the current IL-19 was added. Safe Dem seat.
IL-18(Schrock-R vs Johnson-R vs Schimkus-R)- This is a safe GOP District which includes the remaining areas of the current IL-18. (Democratic Areas of the current IL-18 was given to the IL-11 and IL-17). plus the Macon,DeWitt,Piatt,Moultrie,Douglas,Cumberland,and Southern Champaign portion of the current IL-15(includes Johnson's home) plus the Christian,Shelby,Fayette,Clinton,and Madison County portion of the current IL-19 including Schimkus's home in Collinsville.
This plan makes the IL-US House Delegation 17-1 favoring the Democrats. We replace Roskam-R with a Hispanic Democrat. Biggert and Manzullo's seats are similar to Bean,Halverson,and Foster's seat at the current form. Democrats can win those seats in 2012 with Obama on the ballot. 1 or 2 of the Southern IL US House Members will have their seats eliminated.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2009, 02:34:43 pm »

The 2011 Redistricting in NY is going to be very difficult for Dems because they are alot of DEMs in competitive Districts that were originally designed for Republicans in 2000. Since the last redistricting - NY Republicans held NY-1(Grucci-R-who lost in 2002 to Bishop-D). NY-3(King-R), NY-13(Fosella-R-retired in 2008 due to scandal- replaced by Democrat Mike McMahon by a landslide margin). NY-19(Kelly-R-narrowly lost in the 2006 wave to John Hall-D), NY-20(Sweeney-R lost to Gillibrand-D in 2006, won by Murphy-D in Special Election.). NY-24(Boehlert-R-retired in 2006- won by Arcuri-D in 2006- Arcuri-D faced a close race in 2008-and will expect another close race in 2010. NY-25(Walsh-R- retired in 2008-won by Dan Maffei-D by a wide margin. NY-26(Reynolds/Lee-R),NY-27(Quinn-R-retired in 2004 won by Brian Higgins-D)- and NY-29(Hougton/Kuhl-R- Houghton-R retired in 2004-replaced by Shotgun Randy Kuhl-Kuhl lost in a 2008 rematch to Eric Massa-D).  Bishop(NY-1), Higgins(NY-27),Maffei(NY-25) and Hall(NY-19) had no problem getting re-elected since their initial victories. McMahon(NY-13) won by a landslide during his initial race- will have no problem getting re-elected as long as we give him some Democratic areas in Brooklyn or Manhattan. The 3 Districts DEMs have to really worry about is Arcuri(NY-24),Murphy(NY-20) and Massa(NY-29). Murphy(NY-20) is a freshman-the question is can he win in 2010 by a landslide margin like Gillibrand did in 2008 or will he face another close than expected race like Arcuri did in 2008. Can Massa-D win his current District in a neutral year against Chris Lee as his opponent in a Incumbency vs Incumbency matchup. Arcuri-D is the seat Dems had to worry about-since the 2008 results- 
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2009, 05:55:56 pm »

The North country would be easy to split up among more liberal districts, such as Albany area ones. If there was one gerrymandered Republican district, the place for it would be the area west and SW of the finger lakes. Take the more conservative areas of NY-26 and NY-29 and combine them into one ultra-Republican district.
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Lunar
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2009, 02:23:47 am »

It's kind of funny that a state as big as NY could legitimately be gerrymandered to have all but one district be Democratic
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cannonia
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2009, 10:26:25 am »

It's kind of funny that a state as big as NY could legitimately be gerrymandered to have all but one district be Democratic

We just need moar districts!!!
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2009, 12:21:53 pm »

We all can agree that an Upstate NY District is going to be removed.
Lowey(NY-18) and Engel(NY-17) represent portions of NYC so they are exempted.
Tonko(NY-21)-represents Albany area- so he is exempted.
The Democratic Districts in upstate NY are- NY-22(Hinchey-D),NY-25(Maffei-D),NY-27(Higgins-D),and NY-28(Slaughter-D). Hinchey-D will trade some areas with Arcuri-D to give Arcuri a safer seat. Maffei-D will trade some areas with Owens-(NY-23) to make Owens seat more Democratic.
If NY-26(Lee-R) seat gets eliminated. the heavily Republican areas are given to Slaughter-D The Buffalo area is given to Higgins, and the Rochester Area is given to Kuhl-D.
Another Scenario is Slaughter-D is going to be sacrificed due to her old age.
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