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  Vulnerable US Senate Seats in 2010. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Vulnerable US Senate Seats in 2010.  (Read 4562 times)
nkpatel1279
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« on: October 20, 2009, 09:48:58 am »

On the Democratic side- 7 Democratic held US Senate Seats are vulnerable-
AR-Lincoln,CO-Bennett,CT-Dodd,DE-OPEN,IL-OPEN,NV-Reid,and PA-Specter.
On the Republican side- 5 Republican held US Senate Seats are vulnerable. KY-OPEN,MO-OPEN,NH-OPEN,OH-OPEN,and NC-Burr.
Democrats are going to hold onto AR(Lincoln-D) and NV(Reid-D) due to weak GOP bench. CT(Dodd-D)-due to Dodd's seniority status. DE-OPEN- and IL-OPEN- due to the Obama/Biden Whitehouse influence. Beau Biden-DE and Alexi Giannoulias-IL will get alot help from the national and Statewide dems. Specter-PA is more likely to lose in the primary than in the general election- seat stays Democratic. The Colorado Seat(Bennett) is the only Democratic seat that will flip Republican.
Republicans will lose MO-OPEN and OH-OPEN- due to unpopular GOP candidates. KY and NH are tossups. and Burr-NC can be a surprise loss.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2009, 09:36:38 am »

I highly doubt Dodd, Bennett, and Reid all keep their seats.
Chris Dodd-CT is vulnerable because of the scandals that occured during his recent term as US Senator- Mortgage Scandals- His role as Banking chairman during the financial meltdown, his decision to move to Iowa during his failed presidential run, has caused his popularity to be at a low point. Dodd-CT is an established figure in CT and he keeps his seat if economy recovers, and health care legislation passes- plus all the bad stuff that occured with Dodd becomes old news.
Harry Reid-NV always faced and won close races during his US Senate careers except for 2004 due to his seniority status and ability to deliver for the casino industry- In CT and NV- the incumbents- Dodd and Reid can deliver for their states than Simmons or Lowden- who will be backbench Republican house members.

Bennett-CO is more likely to lose because he does not have the seniority clout that Dodd and Reid has.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2009, 10:08:52 am »

Harry Reid-NV has won a close race against John Ensign in 1998- before Ensign committed adultery- Ensign was then a US Congressman from NV-1(The Democratic district of the state.) when the Republican party was pretty strong in Nevada. Now the Republican party is in shambles in Nevada is in shambles due to Gibbons and Ensign.
Bennett-CO is a tossup but once he wins the primary - he will have a decent chance of getting elected to a first full term 
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2009, 02:40:57 pm »

Dodd-CT and Reid-NV. are politically unpopular in their home states and Nationally. Bennett-CO is unknown. The results of the 2009 NJ Governors race can help predict the outcome in CT. Reid-NV is in a more difficult situation than Dodd is. NV-is less Democratic than CT and Reid is not popular in his home state like Dodd was before Countrywide. With Bennett-CO we can get DSCC support or let him fend for him self.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2009, 12:32:35 pm »

I am surprised that he is predicting that Dems are going to lose MO but win OH and NH.
Carnahan(MO) is a much stronger candidate than Fisher(OH) and Hodes(NH). and Blunt(MO) is more unpopular than Portman(OH) and Ayotte(NH). MO is a purplish Republican leaning state but Carnahan can appeal to the Skelton Democrats. Ayotte(NH) is facing a primary-if she loses in the primary- Hodes-NH automaticly wins. OH-will be a close race. Portman does not sound like an extremist like Blackwell or Schmidt, He does not have any corruption issues like Taft or Ney. but he has ties with Bush-43 which is a liability in Ohio. Fisher-needs to rely on the coalition that helped Obama in Ohio in 2008 and Brown in 2006.
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