Partisan makeup of local government after the next election (Britain)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More of a random thought than anything else... and obviously this is assuming a Tory government of some sort by this time next year.

At a very basic level we already know what will happen - the Tories will lose seats and councils, Labour will gain seats and councils, the LibDems will do both at the same time. But that's not exactly interesting (or rather; it's only interesting in the Sun Rises In The East sense). What I'm wondering is whether the pattern of local government elections will be more like 1970-1978 or 1980-2009 (I'm not enough of a hack to suggest that the pattern of 1965-1969 is even possible, let alone worth discussing).

The pattern of local government elections in the 1970's was marked by extreme swings against the government despite the fact that both the Heath and Wilson/Callaghan governments never reached a [proper] second term. But since 1980 things have been different; both Thatcher and Blair governments were able to resist massive losses in places where their parties had no business suffering massive losses until quite late into their premierships. You could, I guess, argue that the volatility of local government elections in the '70's was just a by-product of a new (and much less local) system of local government, and that when things settled down again, the volatility ceased. If that's the case then the presumptive Cameron government will not start losing councils in its natural backyard until its second term (if it gets one), if that. But if there were other causes to the volatility of local elections in the '70's, and if these causes have contemporary echoes, then serious losses* could start becoming a problem very quickly.
The question matters not only in terms of local politics, but because local election results and government policy towards centralisation, devolution and so on are often linked - Governments suddely become much keener on keeping power at the centre when power outside is in the hands of the Opposition.

*That is "losses in natural Tory areas/severe losses in swingy areas" not "large numbers of councillors defeated/councils lost". The latter is inevitable given their now very high base and won't be a sign of, well, anything.

[Verily]

Hard to say, really. Thatcher and Blair of course retained their popularity for quite a long time--although Thatcher would not have were it not for the Falklands War. Heath, Callaghan and Wilson did not. Cameron could become very unpopular very quickly or he could remain popular for a decade. It's hard to predict that sort of thing.

Maybe more interesting vis-a-vis local council elections is the question of whether Labour will lose ground in 2010 or not. After all, these are the seats that were up in 2006, when Labour already had a really dreadful result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe more interesting vis-a-vis local council elections is the question of whether Labour will lose ground in 2010 or not. After all, these are the seats that were up in 2006, when Labour already had a really dreadful result.

If the local elections are on the same day as the General Election probably - certainly being an independent in a Labour area (and there are a lot more of those than there used to be) up for re-election on a General Election day won't be much fun. In more general terms, again presuming that the local elections will be on the same day as the GE, we can probably expect Labour gains (though not large ones) in the so-called Mets and in the dodgy parts of London mostly because of increased turnout. Elsewhere... not so sure. 2006 wasn't that bad.

There will be some weird results though - the London boroughs have never been up on the same day as a General Election and the (laughably named) Mets haven't since 1979. Ticket splitting in Birmingham in '79 was hilarious - probably won't be quite so funny with the Liberals no longer strong in the inner city, but there's potential for amusement in places.

[JoeBrayson]

I think we would see a recovery in Labour's electoral fortunes. They could gain several councils such as Coventry, Bolton and/or Islington. The reason why Labour would recover as voters would vote for them as they know that they would be a Conservative Government and therefore to generate some meaningful opposition to the Conservatives.

[k-onmmunist]

Yes, I think the best chances Labour have of cementing some power and the grounds for a return to power lies in the local elections. I somehow doubt they'll lose much more, considering the thrashing they recieved last year.