Suffolk U.: Corzine up 9 in real headscratcher
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  Suffolk U.: Corzine up 9 in real headscratcher
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Author Topic: Suffolk U.: Corzine up 9 in real headscratcher  (Read 3390 times)
Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2009, 02:20:32 PM »

I didn't even notice, but Corzine only losing 8% of Dems? That's laughable.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2009, 02:47:21 PM »


Thats not the only problem of this poll. Looking through the crosstabs:

Corzine also leads 35-31-10 among Independents, while in almost every other poll Christie was ahead among Independents by 15-25.

So that poll is probably a crazy outlier.

Well, it may not be the 1-in-20 outlier so much as it may be a bad methodology outlier.  Or it could just be the inflated number of "undecideds" will vote Republican in disproportionate number and that a more aggressive poll would have moved them toward Christie.

Whatever.  It's probably not worth wasting too much time on this poll when there will be plenty of more reputable ones (including the intriguingly even-handed PPP) in the coming days.

PS: I'm still very interested in finding the best way to poll a race with a solid third-party candidate in it such as this one.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2009, 04:29:00 PM »

dear god! No!
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2009, 04:33:40 PM »

Solved the mystery: This poll assumes turnout at a healthy 93% of registered voters!

Actual turnout will be 50%.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2009, 06:30:48 PM »

The mystery is this is a uni poll. Duh. The end.
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