Republican Primary Campaign - tmthforu94 wins!

[Joe Republic]

 

R E P U B L I C A N
P R I M A R I E S

Welcome to the official campaign thread for the forum Republican presidential nomination!

This thread will begin with instructions on how the game is played, and will follow with nineteen stages each focused on one or several primaries in the campaign.

But first, let's take a look at the candidates as we enter the primary season:

     


      


    

Table of Contents:

1. Overview
2. Contesting a primary
3. Primary schedule
4. Candidate advantages

[Joe Republic]

OVERVIEW

As in real life, the objective of a successful primary campaign is to win a majority of delegates at the party convention.  As you know, the more primaries you win, the more delegates you will accumulate.

In this game, we’ll be using an artificial currency of 'credits'.  These can be earned and spent in various ways, and will be essential to your success.


EARNING CREDITS

Each candidate will begin with 10 credits, to get the ball rolling.  Additional credits are earned in two different ways:

The first method is already underway; forum members are able to donate 'endorsement points' to their favored candidates, which equate directly with credits for their campaign.  The thread where this happens is here.  Forum members who haven’t done so already may endorse candidates at any point in the campaign, and credits will be added to their campaign war chest before the start of the next primary.  If forum members decide to switch their endorsements, credits will be deducted from one candidate (if available) and added to the other.

The second method is by winning primaries.  The number of credits earned is determined by the winner’s margin of victory.  This will be explained in further detail in the next post.


SPENDING CREDITS

There are three varieties of ‘token’ that you can buy for one credit each, and all of them will prove essential to victory.

Firstly, there are campaign tokens.  Each of these tokens will generate a random number between 1-1000.  These numbers are added up, and whichever candidate has the highest score wins the primary.  For the first four primary stages (i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina), there is a limit of five campaign tokens that a candidate may invest.  It may be possible to exchange campaign tokens back into credits after the primary, but this will depend on how well your candidate performs.

Secondly, there are bonus tokens.  Each bonus token adds 25% to your score produced by your campaign tokens.  There is no limit to the number of bonus tokens you can invest in a primary, but these cannot be redeemed as credits afterwards.

Thirdly, there are attack tokens.  Each attack token reduces a specific opponent’s total campaign score in a single primary by 25%.  There is also no limit to the number of attack tokens you can invest in a primary, but these also cannot be redeemed as credits afterwards.  Furthermore, each candidate is guaranteed at least 25% of their campaign token score, so any attack tokens inflicted on an opponent once this threshold has been reached will be ineffective.  Finally, attack tokens are ineffective against an opponent in their home state.


ENDING THE GAME

The game will end either when only one candidate remains in the game after their opponents have dropped out, or if one candidate clinches the nomination by achieving a majority of convention delegates.  If no candidate has achieved a majority of delegates after the final primary stage, then... well... we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. 

The presumptive Republican nominee will then face the presumptive Democratic nominee in a general election campaign.

It’s important to note that credits will roll over to the general election campaign.  So if you’re a candidate who has just lost out on the nomination but you still have a decent war chest, you may want to consider endorsing your opponent to help them in the next stage.  (Or not. )  Furthermore, the number of delegates you have accumulated as a runner up will affect your value as a prospective running mate.....

[Joe Republic]

CONTESTING A PRIMARY

It’s important to understand how to enter a primary contest, particularly if you want to win one.  Some of the basics were covered in the last post, but here there will be more detail.

For the purposes of the game, there will be no effective difference between a caucus and a primary.  Whenever I describe ‘a primary’, you can take that to include the caucuses too.


ENTERING A PRIMARY

To win a primary, you will need to spend at least one credit to buy a campaign token.  Unless you decide to opt out of a particular primary state entirely, I will automatically enter you in with one campaign token, thus deducting one credit from your balance.  If there are more primaries in one stage than you have credits for, I’ll randomly decide which states to opt you in to.

As I described in the previous post, you can purchase campaign tokens, bonus tokens, and attack tokens.  The best way I can demonstrate how these work is as follows:

Example

• Candidate A buys 4 campaign tokens, 2 bonus tokens, and 1 attack token to be used against Candidate C.  A total of 7 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

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• Candidate B buys 5 campaign tokens, 3 bonus tokens, 2 attack tokens to be used against Candidate C, and 1 attack token to be used against Candidate D.  A total of 11 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

`

• Candidate C buys 3 campaign tokens, no bonus tokens, and 1 attack token to be used against Candidate A.  A total of 4 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

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• Candidate D buys 4 campaign tokens, 4 bonus tokens, and no attack tokens.  A total of 8 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

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WINNING A PRIMARY

Once I have received instructions from all candidates, or the designated time limit has run out, I will temporarily lock this thread and calculate the results.  As I described in the previous post, each campaign token produces a randomly generated number between 1-1000, which are then added up.  This score will then be increased and/or reduced by the number of bonus tokens and attack tokens that have been employed on it.

Continuing the previous example:

• Candidate A’s four campaign tokens produce the following results:
  299  496  163  481
  This produces a subtotal of 1439.
  Candidate A’s two bonus tokens add a further 25% each, which adds 720 to the subtotal.
  Candidate C has employed one attack token (25% of the subtotal), and thus deducting 360 from the subtotal.
  Therefore, Candidate A’s final score in this primary is 1799.

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• Candidate B’s five campaign tokens produce the following results:
  402  553  675  686  909
  This produces a subtotal of 3225.
  Candidate B’s three bonus tokens add a further 25% each, which adds 2419 to the subtotal.
  No attack tokens were employed against Candidate B.
  Therefore, Candidate B’s final score in this primary is 5644.

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• Candidate C’s three campaign tokens produce the following results:
  79  685  646
  This produces a subtotal of 1410.
  Candidate C has no bonus tokens.
  Candidates A and B have employed three attack tokens (25% for each token; 75% in total), thus deducting 1056 from the subtotal.
  Therefore, Candidate C’s final score in this primary is 354.

`

• Candidate D’s four campaign tokens produce the following results:
  905 644  763  575
  This produces a subtotal of 2887.
  Candidate D’s four bonus tokens add a further 25% each, which adds 2887 to the subtotal.
  Candidate B has employed one attack token (25% of the subtotal), and thus deducting 722 from the subtotal.
  Therefore, Candidate B’s final score in this primary is 5052.

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• The final results of this primary are as follows:
  Candidate A:  1799;  14.0%
  Candidate B:  5644;  43.9%
  Candidate C:  354;  2.8%
  Candidate D:  5052;  39.3%
  
  Candidate B has won the primary with a margin of 4.6%.

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RETURN ON INVESTMENT

As mentioned earlier, candidates are able to redeem some of the credits they invested in the primary (and more if they win).  This is calculated as follows:

The winner receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, plus a number of credits equal to their percentage margin of victory (rounded to the nearest whole number, at a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 5).

The second place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought.

The third place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, minus 1.

The fourth place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, minus 2 if available.

The fifth place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, minus 3 if available.

…and so on.

When a primary stage is over, if your candidate has no remaining credits, and you have not received any additional endorsements from fellow forum members during this stage, you will be forced to withdraw from the campaign.


DELEGATES

As these are the Republican primaries, the winner of each primary will take all of the delegates available.  I realize that this is not entirely comparable to reality, but some creative license has been used here.

The number of delegates available in each primary is summarized in the primary schedule in the next post, and also before each primary itself.

[Joe Republic]

PRIMARY SCHEDULE

The schedule roughly matches that of the 2008 Democratic primaries; for the sake of simplicity, the same schedule is being used for both parties.  There will be no primaries held for Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, or the Northern Marianas Islands.

The Super Tuesday primaries of 2008 have been divided in two in the hope of making it more manageable.

The chronological list of primaries is as follows, with the number of delegates in brackets:

Stage 1	Iowa (37)
Stage 2	New Hampshire (24)
Stage 3	Nevada (31)
Stage 4	South Carolina (47)
Stage 5	Florida (114) Michigan (60)
Stage 6	Alabama (45) Arizona (50) California (170) Connecticut (27) Georgia (72) Illinois (67) Massachusetts (40) Missouri (58) New Mexico (29) North Dakota (26) Tennessee (52)
Stage 7	Alaska (26) Arkansas (31) Colorado (43) Delaware (18) Idaho (32) Kansas (36) Minnesota (38) New Jersey (52) New York (98) Oklahoma (38) Utah (36)
Stage 8	Louisiana (44) Nebraska (33) Washington (37)
Stage 9	Maine (18)
Stage 10	District of Columbia (16) Maryland (37) Virginia (60)
Stage 11	Hawaii (20) Wisconsin (40)
Stage 12	Ohio (85) Rhode Island (17) Texas (137) Vermont (17)
Stage 13	Wyoming (28)
Stage 14	Mississippi (36)
Stage 15	Pennsylvania (71)
Stage 16	Indiana (54) North Carolina (69)
Stage 17	West Virginia (27)
Stage 18	Kentucky (45) Oregon (30)
Stage 19	Montana (25) South Dakota (24)



Total Delegates:  2,367

[Joe Republic]

CANDIDATE
ADVANTAGES

HOME STATE ADVANTAGES

As in real life, candidates often receive an advantage in particular primaries based on the proximity of their home state.  This element will be simulated in this game too.

The following map displays the various regions in which home state advantages are grouped:

The following series of questions will help explain how candidates' advantages in each primary are calculated:


[1]  Is the primary in your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 200% bonus and proceed to Q5.
• No - proceed to Q2.

[2]  Does the primary state share a border with your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 75% bonus and proceed to Q3.
• No - proceed to Q3.

[3]  Is the primary state in the same color group (e.g. red, green, etc.) as your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 25% bonus and proceed to Q4.
• No - proceed to Q4.

[4]  Is the primary state in the same color shade group (e.g. bright orange, dark orange, etc.) as your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 50% bonus and proceed to Q5.
• No - proceed to Q5.

[5]  Is the primary state in the blue region (i.e. the South)?

• Yes - double your accumulated bonus(es), if any.*
• No - end.

Any bonuses are added to the score subtotal produced by each candidate's campaign tokens.

N.B.  Each of the states at the Four Corners share borders with each other; i.e. New Mexico borders Utah, and Arizona borders Colorado.


* I realize that this may seem unfair on candidates from outside the South, but this intra-regional bias is pretty well based in reality, alas.



MOMENTUM BONUSES

In each primary state, each candidate will receive a bonus equal to the average vote percentage they have won over the previous three stages.  This will include stages with multi-state primaries.

[Joe Republic]

STAGE 1

The credit balances of the candidates are as follows:

Andrew Atkins	10
Clay Cooper	24
Eric Emerson	16
Helen Hudson	25
Jim Jessop	18
Kevin Kessler	15
Pamela Pickering	22
Rick Romano	22
Steve Spencer	24
Victor Vasquez	14
Wyatt Williams	16

IOWA

There are 37 delegates available.  The winner will take all of these.


Home State Advantages

(Bonuses will be added to candidates' campaign token scores.)

• Kevin Kessler (MN) has a 150% bonus.
• Rick Romano (OH) has a 25% bonus.
• Steve Spencer (SD) has a 75% bonus.
• Victor Vasquez (IL) has a 100% bonus.

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N.B.  In this stage, you may buy no more than 5 campaign tokens.  There is no limit to the number of bonus tokens and attack tokens you can buy.




Please post your instructions for what tokens you would like to buy to compete in this stage.  You may edit your post as many times as you like if necessary.

The thread will be temporarily locked three days from now so that the results can be calculated.

In the mean time, please don't be afraid to ask any questions.  

[Devilman88]

5 campaign tokens, and 4 bonus tokens, please.

[Vepres]

Fascinating way of doing this, kudos to you, Joe.

Do bonus tokens build on themselves? i.e.: 3 bonus tokens = 1.25^3
Or are they added together? i.e.: 3 bonus tokens = 1.75

[Joe Republic]

Fascinating way of doing this, kudos to you, Joe.

Do bonus tokens build on themselves? i.e.: 3 bonus tokens = 1.25^3
Or are they added together? i.e.: 3 bonus tokens = 1.75

The latter.  Bonus tokens and attack tokens are each worth 25%, so if three of them are used at once for example, then they would collectively be worth 75%.

[Vepres]

Fascinating way of doing this, kudos to you, Joe.

Do bonus tokens build on themselves? i.e.: 3 bonus tokens = 1.25^3
Or are they added together? i.e.: 3 bonus tokens = 1.75

The latter.  Bonus tokens and attack tokens are each worth 25%, so if three of them are used at once for example, then they would collectively be worth 75%.

Ok, that's what I thought. Thanks!

[Vepres]

Is there any way to "invest" credits in future states now?

[Joe Republic]

Is there any way to "invest" credits in future states now?

Sorry, we're just focusing on one stage at a time. 

[Vepres]

Is there any way to "invest" credits in future states now?

Sorry, we're just focusing on one stage at a time. 

Ok, that's fine.

[tmthforu94]

I'll use 5 campaign tokens and 8 bonus tokens.

[Vepres]

I'll use 5 campaign tokens.

[Historia Crux]

For now, I'll use 2 campaign tokens.

[Vepres]

So the thread will be locked Wednesday morning?

[Joe Republic]

So the thread will be locked Wednesday morning?

Tuesday morning actually.  I'll close it as soon after 8.48am Eastern as I'm able to.  Or if every candidate has submitted before then, I'll close it sooner.

[Vepres]

So the thread will be locked Wednesday morning?

Tuesday morning actually.  I'll close it as soon after 8.48am Eastern as I'm able to.  Or if every candidate has submitted before then, I'll close it sooner.

Ah, ok.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'll use 5 campaign tokens, 2 bonus tokens. and 1 attack token each and Kessler and Romano, and 2 attack tokens on Vasquez

[Vepres]

So, will you designate the color for each candidate on the map for states won as they win, Joe? (Sorry for being so inquisitive)

[Joe Republic]

So, will you designate the color for each candidate on the map for states won as they win, Joe? (Sorry for being so inquisitive)

I hadn't really thought of that.  The current map with Iowa highlighted in green will develop as we progress, but only using shades of green to represent the states we've covered in the past.  I guess as the race develops I could put together a map showing which candidates have won where.

And I don't mind the inquisition. 

[Vepres]

So, will you designate the color for each candidate on the map for states won as they win, Joe? (Sorry for being so inquisitive)

I hadn't really thought of that.  The current map with Iowa highlighted in green will develop as we progress, but only using shades of green to represent the states we've covered in the past.  I guess as the race develops I could put together a map showing which candidates have won where.

And I don't mind the inquisition. 

I think it'd be interesting to watch the map fills out as time goes on. Perhaps only give a candidate a color when the win a state, so we don't have a ridiculous amount of colors.

[tmthforu94]

Also, will you make up numbers to go with the percentages, like "Helen Hudson - 45,204 votes in Iowa." Or will you just leave it at percentages?

[Vepres]

Also, will you make up numbers to go with the percentages, like "Helen Hudson - 45,204 votes in Iowa." Or will you just leave it at percentages?

Also, I expect you to do an in-depth analysis county by county