French presidential election 2012

[Umengus]

A new topic because the first poll is come out:

ifop poll

Sarkozy: 28 %
Aubry: 20 %
Bayrou: 14 %
Marine Le Pen: 11%

Besancenot: 9 %
Villepin: 8 %

Duflot (green): 5 %
Buffet (communist): 3%

Arthaud (Laguiller): 1 %
Dupont-Aignan (souverenist): 1%

No big surprises, except the result of bayrou and Besanceot, higher than predicted. Greens are low and it's not a surprise: when election counts, greens are nowhere.

Not sure that Sarkozy will do 28 %.

This poll is very favorable to the right: lots of center-left voters vote probably for bayrou.

2 big unknows: Villepin candidate ? probably  (he wants to make lose sarkozy). and quid of segolene royal ? she must win the socialist nomination and it's not done...

[Hash]

Too fast. Polls out in 2009 for a race in 2012 mean nothing. Start this thread in 2011.

[big bad fab]

Too fast. Polls out in 2009 for a race in 2012 mean nothing. Start this thread in 2011.

Hash is right.

What we can say about this poll is that:
- Duflot is low; Aubry is low (because Besancenot is high and because Villepin grasps some socialist voters.... !!!)
- Le Pen is high and disturbingly so both for the PS and for Sarkozy, since, in the poll, it's a blue-collar support
- Villepin may well be a "plus" for the right, because he contributes to steal voters out of Bayrou...

All of this is amazing and means only one thing: the mainstream right is currently (and for the years to come...) in bad shape, but Sarkozy may well win anyway, because of the exploded landscape and the inability for someone to gather all the oppositions, from a part of the far-left to a part of the MoDem.
A sad political future.

[Hash]

Anyways, can we merge this thread with France General Discussion, lock it or delete it? Since a thread about an election in three years is stupid. If not, allow me to start the thread for the Quebec election in 2013.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can move it to the international general discussion board and then one of the mods there can merge it into the france thread.

[minionofmidas]

Or we could actually use it as a discussion of the 2012 election.

Only problem, really, is that it'll drop to the 10th page before anyone posts here again.

[Hash]

I can move it to the international general discussion board and then one of the mods there can merge it into the france thread.

Please do so.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Trying to make conclusions with such a poll today is a pure heresy.

The only interest of this poll is to make some approval ratings...

Oh, and, if this thread stays as an only thread, it would be better in 'International elections'. Though this poll alone should have been posted in FGD.

[Хahar 🤔]

The 2007 election thread was created in 2004, IIRC.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Too fast. Polls out in 2009 for a race in 2012 mean nothing. Start this thread in 2011.

Right, this doesn't help us to know what will be the 2012 results. Anyways, still interesting to see how people feel right now (and it makes me fear a lot).

But Aubry won't be the 2012, fortunately.

[Hash]

Also, this isn't the first poll on the topic. The first poll came out in 2007, as a matter of fact. Most of these stupid joke polls assume candidacies, which is clearly wrong, given how nothing is certain. Knowing the nature of French politics, it's unlikely that the choice of the 2007 pundits for 2012 will be nominee. Just like little points to an Aubry candidacy. Or a Buffet candidacy for that matter.

These polls are stupid and shouldn't warrant much discussion, which is why I want it merged with FGD.