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  2010 dead pool: one year out.
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Author Topic: 2010 dead pool: one year out.  (Read 5453 times)
Brittain33
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« on: November 04, 2009, 05:36:09 pm »

Which members of Congress have a new reason to hope that the unemployment rate drops by next fall? Who needs to polish off their resumes? Who leaned a little too heavily on college kids, very infrequent voters, and total revulsion at Bush to get into Congress?

It's early yet, but that's all part of the fun. No editing before next year! In no particular order:

1. Bobby Bright (total fluke)
2. Betsy Markey (too many colleges, had weak opponent, and D hit their high water mark in Colorado)
3. Travis Childers (past his sell-by date in this district)
4. Tom Perriello (all the stars aligned in '08. Look at '09.)
5. Frank Kratovil (lucky in '08)
6. Walt Minnick (duh)
7. Steve Driehaus (I've flipped my view on this one; I was too sanguine about the D base here)
8. Mary Jo Kilroy (weak incumbent, strong opponent, transient voters)
9. Larry Kissell (bad fundraiser in a volatile district)
10. Harry Teague (district too R against solid challenger)
11. Eric Massa (district too R in general, defeated a weirdo)
12. Carol Shea-Porter (no good challenger on the horizon, but NH is volatile and she's going to flame out spectacularly some day)
13. Harry Mitchell (good guy in a tough district, university based, not seeing the appeal for him in the new environment)
14. Ciro Rodriguez (if a good challenger materializes, he's low-hanging fruit in a district with a high R floor and an unreliable D base)
15. Suzanne Kosmas (district not good enough for her to survive a party-backed opponent)
16. one entrenched D from among TN-6, TN-8, AR-1, and AR-2, but no more than one; leaning toward Bart Gordon

So I'm predicting R+16 on incumbents, which is historically high, but that's in part because there are few open seats ready to go R. I make no predictions on open seats today, but PA-7 looks a lot dicier today than it did two days ago. My count seems too high for me, but the Rs are too far oversold from '06 and '08, so my mind overrules my heart and says to score high.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2009, 06:12:59 pm »

House rankings are almost done, bucko, on my end.  Be patient.  Tongue

Minor point, but you missed Melancon's CD, if it's still open.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2009, 06:13:53 pm »

Sounds about right to me.  I also see Republicans picking up the open LA-03 seat.  If things get bad enough for Democrats, I could see Nye(VA-02), Grayson(FL-08), and maybe some other going Republican, although they dont have top tier challengers there.  I actually think Kissell is OK in NC-08.  Democrats did well in that area last night, picking up seats on Charlotte City Council and winning the Mayor's office for the first time since the 80's.  
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2009, 06:15:37 pm »

House rankings are almost done, bucko, on my end.  Be patient.  Tongue

Minor point, but you missed Melancon's CD, if it's still open.

Are you implying that you think Melancon may not even bother running against Vitter and get back into his House seat?  I actually think that that would be his best option at this point. 
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2009, 06:21:59 pm »

In the House- Democrats will lose LA-3(OPEN-Melancon-R). ID-1(Minnick-R)-the most Republican District in the nation. Perreillo-VA-5,and Mary Jo Kilroy(OH-15) due to their narrow 2008 election wins. Bright(AL-5),Childers(MS-1),and Kravitol(MD-1) are locally popular in their districts similar to AR Democratic US House members- they will survive.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2009, 07:02:29 pm »

I don't feel like making a list, because honestly I'm not well educated on Congresional races. But my early prediction for 2010 is that Republicans pick up 19 seats in all.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2009, 05:23:15 pm »

House rankings are almost done, bucko, on my end.  Be patient.  Tongue

I can't match the rankings and updates you do, so I thought it was ok to do this one shot.

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I wasn't doing open seats. If Melancon decides to run for the House again, I still wouldn't put him on the list.

17. Chris Carney was an big oversight.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2009, 06:07:39 pm »

17. Chris Carney was an big oversight.

Carney will be fine this time around so long as he doesn't have a credible opponent or a wave (and I see neither right this moment).

My list is up, btw - if you have any questions I'll be happy to answer.
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2009, 06:58:38 pm »

Sounds about right to me.  I also see Republicans picking up the open LA-03 seat.  If things get bad enough for Democrats, I could see Nye(VA-02), Grayson(FL-08), and maybe some other going Republican, although they dont have top tier challengers there.  I actually think Kissell is OK in NC-08.  Democrats did well in that area last night, picking up seats on Charlotte City Council and winning the Mayor's office for the first time since the 80's.  

As much as people talk about Grayson's verbal pyrotechnics putting himself in danger of reelection, the fact is major potential GOP candidates have taken themselves out of the race since his national notoriety has grown. The FL Republicans are last reported to be shopping two teabagger candidates from outside the district, including one from Coral Gables a few hundred miles to the south.

But hey, running a carpetteabagger almost worked in NY-23, right?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2009, 07:22:07 pm »

Sounds about right to me.  I also see Republicans picking up the open LA-03 seat.  If things get bad enough for Democrats, I could see Nye(VA-02), Grayson(FL-08), and maybe some other going Republican, although they dont have top tier challengers there.  I actually think Kissell is OK in NC-08.  Democrats did well in that area last night, picking up seats on Charlotte City Council and winning the Mayor's office for the first time since the 80's.  

As much as people talk about Grayson's verbal pyrotechnics putting himself in danger of reelection, the fact is major potential GOP candidates have taken themselves out of the race since his national notoriety has grown. The FL Republicans are last reported to be shopping two teabagger candidates from outside the district, including one from Coral Gables a few hundred miles to the south.

But hey, running a carpetteabagger almost worked in NY-23, right?

The thing is with Grayson's antics - you've got to consider that this CD is pretty much in the political center of things.

You know that one day those moderate voters, especially in this area of the world, will tire of this crap and just get rid of him without asking questions.  Obviously, it'll occur if there's a wave or a good candidate runs, but it may well occur without both of them.

The trick is figuring out when their tolerance ends - all in all, he's skating on thin ice, but it'll break at some point.  May not be 2010, of course.
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2009, 07:32:55 pm »

Grayson is going to keep escalating things to keep getting the media spotlight, have a tough campaign, and probably lose, but might not, and although he doesn't need it, will have a sufficient media or grassroots organizing career to keep things going as long as he wants...people really overestimate how much Grayson even wants to win this next election IMO
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2009, 07:35:14 pm »

Grayson is going to keep escalating things to keep getting the media spotlight, have a tough campaign, and probably lose, but might not, and although he doesn't need it, will have a sufficient media or grassroots organizing career to keep things going as long as he wants...people really overestimate how much Grayson even wants to win this next election IMO

Oh, I don't even pretend to understand his motives (or anyone else's for that matter most of the time).  I just noted what tends to happen to those types of politicians in those CDs.
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2009, 07:36:29 pm »

I do pretend to understand his motives though.  my general impression from what I've heard of the guy is that he's very smart but difficult to deal with Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2009, 07:37:11 pm »

Grayson is going to keep escalating things to keep getting the media spotlight, have a tough campaign, and probably lose, but might not, and although he doesn't need it, will have a sufficient media or grassroots organizing career to keep things going as long as he wants...people really overestimate how much Grayson even wants to win this next election IMO

Oh, I don't even pretend to understand his motives (or anyone else's for that matter most of the time).  I just noted what tends to happen to those types of politicians in those CDs.

"Twinkle, twinkle, Kenneth Starr"
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ajc0918
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2009, 07:57:45 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2009, 08:00:14 pm by ajc0918 »

Sounds about right to me.  I also see Republicans picking up the open LA-03 seat.  If things get bad enough for Democrats, I could see Nye(VA-02), Grayson(FL-08), and maybe some other going Republican, although they dont have top tier challengers there.  I actually think Kissell is OK in NC-08.  Democrats did well in that area last night, picking up seats on Charlotte City Council and winning the Mayor's office for the first time since the 80's.  

As much as people talk about Grayson's verbal pyrotechnics putting himself in danger of reelection, the fact is major potential GOP candidates have taken themselves out of the race since his national notoriety has grown. The FL Republicans are last reported to be shopping two teabagger candidates from outside the district, including one from Coral Gables a few hundred miles to the south.

But hey, running a carpetteabagger almost worked in NY-23, right?

The 'frontrunner' was from Coral Gables, he moved her earlier in the year. I belive he will be the nominee and has already gotten endorsement from a lot of GOP officials.
He's hispanic: Armando Gutierrez
http://GoGutierrez.com/

Oh and FL-8 is about 18% hispanic, so it could help him.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2009, 08:01:32 pm »

I doubt Grayson will run a localized campaign like we saw in those examples like NY-23.  puh-lease.  he's gonna stay on the left and run a progressive campaign towards a progressive audience.  it may work out for him but it may just as easily not.

he's not going to be the one arguing about local issues against an opponent who doesn't know them,c'mon

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2009, 08:24:22 pm »

Who is going to be the 2010 version of
Karan English(AZ)-
Dan Hamburg(CA)
Lynn Shenk(CA)
Buddy Darden(GA)
Don Johnson(GA)
Larry LoRocco(ID)- Minnick
Neal Smith(IA)- Boswell
Dan Glickman(KS)-
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2009, 08:43:28 pm »

Sounds about right to me.  I also see Republicans picking up the open LA-03 seat.  If things get bad enough for Democrats, I could see Nye(VA-02), Grayson(FL-08), and maybe some other going Republican, although they dont have top tier challengers there.  I actually think Kissell is OK in NC-08.  Democrats did well in that area last night, picking up seats on Charlotte City Council and winning the Mayor's office for the first time since the 80's.  

As much as people talk about Grayson's verbal pyrotechnics putting himself in danger of reelection, the fact is major potential GOP candidates have taken themselves out of the race since his national notoriety has grown. The FL Republicans are last reported to be shopping two teabagger candidates from outside the district, including one from Coral Gables a few hundred miles to the south.

But hey, running a carpetteabagger almost worked in NY-23, right?

The thing is with Grayson's antics - you've got to consider that this CD is pretty much in the political center of things.

You know that one day those moderate voters, especially in this area of the world, will tire of this crap and just get rid of him without asking questions.  Obviously, it'll occur if there's a wave or a good candidate runs, but it may well occur without both of them.

The trick is figuring out when their tolerance ends - all in all, he's skating on thin ice, but it'll break at some point.  May not be 2010, of course.

I'll buy that. As amusing as it is to the base, Greyson's got to back it up with some actual legislati ve accomplishments or this, indeed, very middle of the road district will send him packing. Though it doesn't look likely to happen next year short of a wave at this point. (emphasis on those last 3 words).

His rhetoric right now is at about a 9, and he needs to turn it down to about a 6.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2009, 08:46:31 pm »

Sounds about right to me.  I also see Republicans picking up the open LA-03 seat.  If things get bad enough for Democrats, I could see Nye(VA-02), Grayson(FL-08), and maybe some other going Republican, although they dont have top tier challengers there.  I actually think Kissell is OK in NC-08.  Democrats did well in that area last night, picking up seats on Charlotte City Council and winning the Mayor's office for the first time since the 80's.  

As much as people talk about Grayson's verbal pyrotechnics putting himself in danger of reelection, the fact is major potential GOP candidates have taken themselves out of the race since his national notoriety has grown. The FL Republicans are last reported to be shopping two teabagger candidates from outside the district, including one from Coral Gables a few hundred miles to the south.

But hey, running a carpetteabagger almost worked in NY-23, right?

The 'frontrunner' was from Coral Gables, he moved her earlier in the year. I belive he will be the nominee and has already gotten endorsement from a lot of GOP officials.
He's hispanic: Armando Gutierrez
http://GoGutierrez.com/

Oh and FL-8 is about 18% hispanic, so it could help him.
Yes, because Hispanic voters in Central Florida will gravitate to a candidate that just moved from Metro Miami within the year.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2009, 09:21:38 pm »

Who is going to be the 2010 version of
Karan English(AZ)-
Dan Hamburg(CA)
Lynn Shenk(CA)
Buddy Darden(GA)
Don Johnson(GA)
Larry LoRocco(ID)- Minnick
Neal Smith(IA)- Boswell
Dan Glickman(KS)-

Most of the candidates had been expected to lose reelection pretty early on with the exception of Glickman and Smith. 
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