What if the Nationalists Had Won?

[Frodo]

Let's suppose that the Mukden Incident had never occurred, and the Japanese had never invaded Manchuria (and thus, invaded the rest of China).

Could the Nationalists (or Kuomintang) had annhilated the Communists and ended the civil war once and for all between the two parties?  And if so, what sort of China do you think could have emerged had it been dominated by the KMT -and not the CCP? 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well see Taiwan. Probably would've democraticized somewhere around that time (maybe sooner as the lack of an enemy would've weakened the regime), and today it would probably somewhat similar to India.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm doubtful that a lack of a Japanese invasion of Manchuria and all that followed would result in a Nationalist victory, at least not directly.  The chaos that was China would have inevitably led someone to invade, and if not the Japanese, most likely the Soviets, though probably not until the mid 30's at the earliest.

[2952-0-0]

Let's suppose that the Mukden Incident had never occurred, and the Japanese had never invaded Manchuria (and thus, invaded the rest of China).

Could the Nationalists (or Kuomintang) had annhilated the Communists and ended the civil war once and for all between the two parties?  And if so, what sort of China do you think could have emerged had it been dominated by the KMT -and not the CCP? 

In all honesty, not that much different as the China under CCP. There would still have been a Japanese invasion (since they were itching to take control of Manchuria's resources), the KMT would still be fighting off the Japanese *and* rival warlords at the same time, and the post-war KMT may have aligned itself with the Russians (out of pragmatism more than ideology), only to break off during the Destalinization.

Chiang Kai Shek would still be a megalomaniac who rules to his death (though a more benign one than Mao). By now the country is so impoverished and backward that his successors decide to open up to foreign trade and investment.

Perhaps a crowd of students occupy Tiananmen Square, causing the leadership and military to blink.  But 5000 years of reigning emperors/foreign invasions/civil war won't change to a stable and healthy democracy overnight.

[angus green]

Disagree. Under a nominally free market economy China grows strongly up until the mid 1970s before stagnating under corruption.  Further economic reforms increase the growth rate rapidlly in the 1990s. Although lower birth rates mean that the population is 1bn (as opposed to 1.3bn) PPP adjusted per capita GDP is $18,000 (rather than $6,000), making China the largest economy in the mid 90s.

China is far less interested in propping up dictatorships and takes a 'non-aligned' stance on foreign affairs so there is no Korean war, no Chinese support for Northern Vietnam (Vietnam never becomes a major conflict) and no current support for Iran, Venezuela, Zimbabwe (no Chavez, Mugabe etc).

[Lief 🗽]

You could have something like a Communist North China (in Manchuria) with the rest of China (including Taiwan) under a Nationalist government. That would be interesting.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The Nationalists would probably have defeated the Communists eventually and taken control over most if not all of China. On the one hand, the Nationalists were extremely corrupt, inefficient, and slow to reform, but on the other hand they won't kill millions of people in the name of dubious socioeconomic theories.

Well see Taiwan. Probably would've democraticized somewhere around that time (maybe sooner as the lack of an enemy would've weakened the regime), and today it would probably somewhat similar to India.

Taiwan wasn't a true democracy until the mid-90s, though economic reforms and economic prosperity ensured that few people complained.

China under the KMT would probably look a lot like China today, but with a very different path leading to the same destination.

[pragmatic liberal]

You could have something like a Communist North China (in Manchuria) with the rest of China (including Taiwan) under a Nationalist government. That would be interesting.

There was an essay in the book "What If?" that theorized precisely that outcome. They argued that a complete defeat of the Communists was impossible, but a division into two Chinas - a North China in Manchuria and a much larger South China in the rest - was feasible.

[Psychic Octopus]

You could have something like a Communist North China (in Manchuria) with the rest of China (including Taiwan) under a Nationalist government. That would be interesting.

There was an essay in the book "What If?" that theorized precisely that outcome. They argued that a complete defeat of the Communists was impossible, but a division into two Chinas - a North China in Manchuria and a much larger South China in the rest - was feasible.

Yeah, I've read that book, It was pretty good. They also say that the Nationalist Chinese (South China), woulde eventually absorb Manchuria much like the reunification of Germany, and that the Chinese would have joined in the global growth like Germany and Japan.