2010 Indiana Senate and Congressional Elections

[nhmagic]

Carson almost lost IN7 a couple of times prior to her death, i think 2004 was one of those.  It's kind of hard though, 40% of that CD is republican (the west side, Broadripple) 60% of the CD is black and democrat (the east side, 38th st, Tibbs, et. al).  JSojourner, correct me if those elements are not in the district, it looks like it is though on the map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Julia Carson had trouble holding the district because she was ill for most of her tenure in Congress, so she didn't really campaign.

Edit: Also, Kerry won 58% there while losing the state 60-39. It's the most Democratic district in the state. It'd be easier to defeat Visclosky, given his ethical problems.

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

How much of a democrat is Ellsworth.  I mean he was the former sherrif right?  I don't necessarily think his vote was principled - he needs big money to win as a democrat in Indiana, and the dems would hang him out to dry if he didnt vote for it.  I feel like both these guys jumped in only because they had a chance to win as a democrat.  The other question is which are most likely to switch to the republican party?  I know Indiana (my family for one) dems, and they are about as moderate of dems as you can get.  Bayh for all intents and purposes has been the only moderate democrat outside of Lieberman.

You're pretty close to being correct, I think.  We have a saying..."Come to Indiana, where our Democrats are Republicans and our Republicans are Constitution Party Members."

Bayh is still pro-choice, but barely.  I would say there are many more moderate Democrats than Lieberman.  Even if you want to factor in his attention-whore campaigning for every Tom, Dick and Sarah with an R by their name, Lieberman still votes pro-choice, pro-gay (for the most part) and pro-environment.  Not sure if he remains anti-gun.  He does seem to be moderating fiscally.  And his foreign policy has been simple -- "Whatever the IDF wants."

But taken as a whole, I would suggest that Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor and quite probably Mark Begich and Kay Hagan are more conservative than Bayh.  Definitely more than Lieberman.  

Still, Bayh is about as far from the liberal warrior his father was. And you're spot-on.  There are hardly any liberal Democrats in Indiana.  They just don't win election.  Pete Visclosky does, but he gets elected largely based on the suburban Chicago and inner-city Gary votes.  The one inner city CD in Indianapolis tends to elect liberals.  But we'll never have a liberal Governor or Senator again.  At least not in my lifetime.

Frankly, though that makes me sad, I am relieved to have a Senator Lugar and a Senator Bayh.  As opposed to a Senator Quayle and Senator Coats.  Or a Senator Pence and Senator Souder.

I remember the last dem Indiana governor, O'Bannon, who caused my poor (as in monetarily poor) grandmother incredible pain when he raised property taxes and sent his minions out to collect.  Old people, left and right, were losing their homes.  Suffice to say, she and the rest of the state are very happy with Daniels.  Mark Begich and Kay Hagan have not shown me at all that they are anything but liberals.  Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor sure.  Landrieu sneaks by.  The downtown district could elect a republican in a wave - we got close a couple of times.

That's odd.  My wife and I paid far less in taxes under Bayh, O'Bannon and Kernan that we did under Governor Orr.  The old Republican excise tax on vehicles was crushingly oppressive.  

And Daniels has hardly cut taxes, but he has resisted raising them.  I am not sure why people are terribly enamored with him, though, unless they happen to live in an area where some major infrastructure project received a big shot in the arm from his sale of the Indiana Toll Road.

As to IN-07, it's the district I know the very least about.  Representative Carson did struggle and I think that can only partly be blamed on her struggle with terminal illness.  If the GOP managed to field an African-American candidate who had some gravitas, I could see the district flipping in a Republican year.  It really is a largely black area with a growing Hispanic population, as well. 

[Sam Spade]

Indiana can act weirdly, but I haven't seen any evidence yet that it will do so in 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

Carson almost lost IN7 a couple of times prior to her death, i think 2004 was one of those.  It's kind of hard though, 40% of that CD is republican (the west side, Broadripple) 60% of the CD is black and democrat (the east side, 38th st, Tibbs, et. al).  JSojourner, correct me if those elements are not in the district, it looks like it is though on the map.

The closest Carson came to losing was her last election in 2006 when she won by 54%-46%.  In 2004 she won by 54%-44%. 

[nhmagic]

JSoj: Where do you live in Indiana?  Are you rural, or Chicago/Michigan area?  I was born and raised in Indianapolis, moved to Phoenix when I was 11.  Dad still lives there.  It's changed a lot and has probably the cleanest downtown I've seen out of any city I've been to.  I lived in both the westside and the "ring around the ring" or the slum suburb ghetto right outside of city center .

Phips, thanks for the percentages...I can't remember where I got the idea that Carson's races were close...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The NRSC has basically said that this race is off their radar, which is saying something because they have California on their radar.  I don't see the Democrats coming close to losing this race unless they are already in the realm of losing 6+ seats.

Bayh will need to avoid the Deeds mistake of ignoring his base while appealing to the center, but Bayh is pretty experienced at that tightrope walk.

Hey, the more money they waste in California, the less money they'll have where it would actually make a difference. Bush's arrogance of spending millions in California cost him the election until he stole it. There was only one state that Gore outspent Bush in: Florida.

[tmthforu94]

Now that Indiana is offering some interesting races, I thought I should bump this up.

[tmthforu94]

Well, after some thought, I support Larry Buschon, a heart surgeon from Evansville, to be my next Congressman. My second preference is Kristi Risk. Things should be looking good for Republicans in IN-08, but you never really know for sure. I can't wait for some polling!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What do you think about IN-09? Hill versus Sodrel again? or will that new cat with money get the GOP nomination?

[tmthforu94]

What do you think about IN-09? Hill versus Sodrel again? or will that new cat with money get the GOP nomination?

I'd put my money on good ole' Sodrel. That being said, I think Todd Young would be stronger in the General Election.

[tmthforu94]

With the primary just a few days away, I'll go ahead and give my outlook...

Indiana Senate Race: This race originally was a two-man race between Hostetller and Coats, with Stutzman 5-10 points behind. However, Stutzman has a good grassroots campaign going. I live in the Southern portion of the state, the same portion Hostetller lived in, and I've seen nothing but Stutzman signs. I have no clue what Coat's or Hostetller's yard sign looks like. That being said, I'd give a slight edge to Coats for now. However, I think Stutzman has a great chance to pull off the upset.

Indiana 8th district: Though Buschon has been the frontrunner for most of the race, I haven't been especially impressed with his fundraising abilities. In my portion of the district, Krisit Risk has been running the best campaign, and looking at Terre Haute, I think she could win that crucial city. It's hard to make predictions on primaries, but I'm going to guess that Kristi Risk will win.

[tmthforu94]

Although I don't think this has made it big yet...

Mike Huckabee has endorsed Marlin Stutzman for Senator. Should be a nice little boost for Stutzman. More importantly, it will give him news coverage.

[Conservative frontier]

I'm supporting Coats,but if I am considering supporting Marlin Stutzman.

[tmthforu94]

I'm supporting Coats,but if I am considering supporting Marlin Stutzman.

I thought you were conservative? Stutzman is the most socially conservative candidate in this race. He is also the only leading candidate who voted for McCain in Indiana in 2008. Unlike Coats, he hasn't spent the last 8+ years of his life in Virginia, working in Washington. Anyone who wants new people in Washington would be a hyprocrite if they supported him.

[Conservative frontier]

I'm supporting Coats,but if I am considering supporting Marlin Stutzman.

I thought you were conservative? Stutzman is the most socially conservative candidate in this race. He is also the only leading candidate who voted for McCain in Indiana in 2008. Unlike Coats, he hasn't spent the last 8+ years of his life in Virginia, working in Washington. Anyone who wants new people in Washington would be a hyprocrite if they supported him.

I'm only supporting Coats, because I don't know what Marlin's chances are.

[tmthforu94]

I'm supporting Coats,but if I am considering supporting Marlin Stutzman.

I thought you were conservative? Stutzman is the most socially conservative candidate in this race. He is also the only leading candidate who voted for McCain in Indiana in 2008. Unlike Coats, he hasn't spent the last 8+ years of his life in Virginia, working in Washington. Anyone who wants new people in Washington would be a hyprocrite if they supported him.

I'm only supporting Coats, because I don't know what Marlin's chances are.

Marlin has been gaining momentum more than any other candidate in this race. I think he'll do extremely well in northern Indiana, as well as western Indiana. I can't really comment though on central Indiana or eastern Indiana, as I haven't been there. But Stutzman has been running ads statewide, and they're fairly impressive. Marlin also has a great grassroots campaign going. For example, here in Clay county, we'll have volunteer's working the polls for Marlin in almost every precint.

[tmthforu94]

Tomorrow is primary day in Indiana!
Post your Indiana Republican Senate primary predictions here. Here is mine:

Stutzman: 30.4%
Coats: 28.6%
Hostetller: 25.6%
Bates: 9.5%
Behney: 5.9%

[SvenssonRS]

Tomorrow is primary day in Indiana!

Holy hell, already? That thing snuck up on me, then...

With a lack of recent polling, I'll make a hopeful shot in the dark.

Stutzman: 29.1%
Coats: 28.8%
Hostettler: 22.2%
Bates: 12.1%
Behney: 7.8%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Coats - 42
Hostettler - 29
Stutzman - 25
Other - 4

[xavier110]

Coats will win pretty easily, I think.

[Badlands17]

As a TH (Terre Haute) resident in the central-western part of the state, I have been seeing a lot of ads for Larry Bucshon and expect him to sweep the floor with the R primary for the IN-8. The Senate primary is a little tougher to tell; I think everyone is overestimating the appeal of Coats. No one here supports him, and I would expect the wealthy people in the Indy metro are the only people he could still really appeal to. With the lack of polling it's really anyone's game, but I wouldn't be as sure about Coats as some people are. With the anti-incumbent, anti-lobbyist political climate (and whenever that happens, IN's political climate is at least twice as anti-incumbent and anti-lobbyist), he's probably the least electable compared to Stutzman and even Hostettler and would give Ellsworth a good chance right off the bat.

[tmthforu94]

As a TH (Terre Haute) resident in the central-western part of the state, I have been seeing a lot of ads for Larry Bucshon and expect him to sweep the floor with the R primary for the IN-8. The Senate primary is a little tougher to tell; I think everyone is overestimating the appeal of Coats. No one here supports him, and I would expect the wealthy people in the Indy metro are the only people he could still really appeal to. With the lack of polling it's really anyone's game, but I wouldn't be as sure about Coats as some people are. With the anti-incumbent, anti-lobbyist political climate (and whenever that happens, IN's political climate is at least twice as anti-incumbent and anti-lobbyist), he's probably the least electable compared to Stutzman and even Hostettler and would give Ellsworth a good chance right off the bat.

I completely agree on your Senatorial prediction. Living down in Clay City, I have not seen 1 Coats or Hostetller sign, so I think this area could be won by Stutzman.
As to the 8th district, I think Kristi Risk could throw him a curveball. I don't know how she stacks up down south, but I see a lot of signs for her, if that tells y'all anything...

Well, now I'm headed to the polls, at just past 6. Then it looks like I'll be heading to his victory rally in Indianapolis. Go Marlin!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Stutzman wins with 104% of the vote. Coats and Hostettler both get –2% each.

[tmthforu94]

Stutzman wins with 104% of the vote. Coats and Hostettler both get –2% each.

Was this your lame attempt to be humorous?