Who has the momentum?

[kelpie]

Kerry did well out of at least debate 1, and the polls tightened.  Now at least some polls suggest Bush is pulling away again slightly.

Has Bush got momentum back, or is Kerry on track? 

Place your bets.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prediction: Dems will say Kerry, Reps will say Bush

[kelpie]

Prediction: Dems will say Kerry, Reps will say Bush

At least try to be objective.

[ATFFL]

Lieberman!  He has Joe-mentum!

[TheCommentator]

Bush opened up a lead during the convention, and the convention ended. But Bush's lead just kept on going.

Kerry tightened it against during the debates, and the debates ended. But Bush now looks to be building up his leads again less than a week after the end of the last debate.

On the other hand, Kerry leads has regained his lead on electoral-vote.com. Kerry is barely up in New Jersey and his margins in California and other blue states are relatively weak, while Bush's margins in his safe states are astronomical. That probably explains why the electoral college is closer than the national matchup polls. In the end, Kerry could end up winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote. Bush would call for a recount, but by the precedent set in Bush v. Gore (2000), the Supreme Court would have to stop it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prediction: Dems will say Kerry, Reps will say Bush

At least try to be objective.

Being cynical is more fun

[Alcon]

Honestly, with polls recently, I have no living idea.

[YRABNNRM]

I think Kerry has gained some momentum from the first debate, it's begining to wear off but I think he still has it.

[Pollwatch99]

Bush here is why.  We had 4-5 point lead going into first debate.  Going into 3rd debate, more like 1-2 point lead.  Current RCP poll average is below.  Even if we don't have +4 because some polls are questionable, we at least have the media perception which is part of gaining momentum.

                                               Bush    Kerry  Nader  Lead
RCP Average     10/13-10/16  49.0%  45.0% 1.7   Bush+4.0
ABC/Wash Post 10/14-10/16  50%     46%   2%    Bush+4
CNN/USAT/Gall  10/14-10/16   52%     44%   1%    Bush +8
Zogby                10/14-10/16  46%     44%   1%     Bush +2
TIPP                   10/13-10/16  48%     45%   2%     Bush +3
Time                   10/14-10/15  48%     47%   3%    Bush +1
Newsweek         10/14 - 10/15 50%    44%   1%    Bush +6

[TheCommentator]

Probably the past 4 days of non-stop "Mary Cheney raped by Kerry" coverage has done something somehow.

On the other hand Bush seems to have gotten away with his "I don't care about bin Laden... I never said that" statement. Someone made a poll about which was more important.

An informal CNN poll found that 52% think Bush benefits more from spin, 30% think Kerry, and 18% think Martha Stewart.

[Pollwatch99]

Probably the past 4 days of non-stop "Mary Cheney raped by Kerry" coverage has done something somehow.

On the other hand Bush seems to have gotten away with his "I don't care about bin Laden... I never said that" statement. Someone made a poll about which was more important.

An informal CNN poll found that 52% think Bush benefits more from spin, 30% think Kerry, and 18% think Martha Stewart.

This will get some blood going but the greatest of political spin came from Clinton in the 1992 election getting the country to believe the economy was in trouble.  The republicans learned well how to play it back and how important it is

[TheCommentator]

Probably the past 4 days of non-stop "Mary Cheney raped by Kerry" coverage has done something somehow.

On the other hand Bush seems to have gotten away with his "I don't care about bin Laden... I never said that" statement. Someone made a poll about which was more important.

An informal CNN poll found that 52% think Bush benefits more from spin, 30% think Kerry, and 18% think Martha Stewart.

This will get some blood going but the greatest of political spin came from Clinton in the 1992 election getting the country to believe the economy was in trouble.  The republicans learned well how to play it back and how important it is

I think you're probably right. But from the summer to now, I'm not sure 1992 tops 2004.

[J. J.]

Bush.  What you see here is the Kerry debate bounce, which was never strong and is beginning to evaporate.  The Friday, we'll start getting clearer of poll numbers.

Kerry "won" the debates, but it wasn't a big enough to push him into the lead for mover than a few days.

[MODU]

I think Bush has had the momentum since September.  Kerry cooled the momentum over the past two weeks, but never ended Bush's momentum. 

[Shira]

Most new figures today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

[Sam Spade]

It's getting to the point in the race where I just start to pay attention to the campaigns, what they're doing, where they're going, what they're saying.

The last couple of days actions by both campaigns pretty much convince me that Bush has the momentum right at this moment and has since the final debate.

Time will tell, however.

[Shira]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

[J. J.]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

Gee, do you really think it will come out after 4.5 years?

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

Gee, do you really think it will come out after 4.5 years?

He has not passed anything yet. He has a January surprise.

[Shira]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

I and you know that the Cons would like to gradually get rid of SC. My feeling is that most of the people are going in the dark on this issue and are badly misinformed.

PS: FDR - the initiator of SC is the Democratic president whom the Cons hate the most.

[Pollwatch99]

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Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'll bet this is related to CNN reporting today about a Bush comment on social security privitization.  Wolf Blitzer kept pushing it

Okay, I'm sure this will get some blood flowing but it is time for John Scary to start up.  No, I don't mean his policies but my democratic friends on this board (all 0 of them) all know the democratic scare book

   - For our African American's & Minorities
         Republicans will burn down black churches(1996), lynch you(2000)
         and steal your vote again(2004)
   - For our Senior Citizens
         Republicans will privitize social security and you will lose your life's
         work in a risky stock market scheme(1996, 2000, 2004)
   - For our Young Citizens
         Republicans will reinstate the draft(2004)
   - For our Disabled and sick
         Republicans will not get Aids cured (1980's-1990's).  By the way
         it was private industry that discovered AIDS medicine not federal
         Govt.
         Republicans will leave you disabled because of stem cell ban(
         Republicans were the only ones to federally fund).  Vote for me
        and you shall walk
   - For women
         You will be forced to have back alley abortions again( every
         election)

It's time for John Scary




        

[J. J.]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

I and you know that the Cons would like to gradually get rid of SC. My feeling is that most of the people are going in the dark on this issue and are badly misinformed.

PS: FDR - the initiator of SC is the Democratic president whom the Cons hate the most.

Ever hear of "lock box?"

[Giant Saguaro]

I'm surprised Bush has so many votes here. I voted neither, and might be one of the few blue avatars to have done so. What I think has happened is Kerry's momentum began to slow just on its own, because of gravity, and now that momentum has been stopped. Brought to a sliding screeching halt. That's what I think has happened.