Who has the momentum?

[TheCommentator]

Bush opened up a lead during the convention, and the convention ended. But Bush's lead just kept on going.

Kerry tightened it against during the debates, and the debates ended. But Bush now looks to be building up his leads again less than a week after the end of the last debate.

On the other hand, Kerry leads has regained his lead on electoral-vote.com. Kerry is barely up in New Jersey and his margins in California and other blue states are relatively weak, while Bush's margins in his safe states are astronomical. That probably explains why the electoral college is closer than the national matchup polls. In the end, Kerry could end up winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote. Bush would call for a recount, but by the precedent set in Bush v. Gore (2000), the Supreme Court would have to stop it.

[TheCommentator]

Probably the past 4 days of non-stop "Mary Cheney raped by Kerry" coverage has done something somehow.

On the other hand Bush seems to have gotten away with his "I don't care about bin Laden... I never said that" statement. Someone made a poll about which was more important.

An informal CNN poll found that 52% think Bush benefits more from spin, 30% think Kerry, and 18% think Martha Stewart.

[TheCommentator]

Probably the past 4 days of non-stop "Mary Cheney raped by Kerry" coverage has done something somehow.

On the other hand Bush seems to have gotten away with his "I don't care about bin Laden... I never said that" statement. Someone made a poll about which was more important.

An informal CNN poll found that 52% think Bush benefits more from spin, 30% think Kerry, and 18% think Martha Stewart.

This will get some blood going but the greatest of political spin came from Clinton in the 1992 election getting the country to believe the economy was in trouble.  The republicans learned well how to play it back and how important it is

I think you're probably right. But from the summer to now, I'm not sure 1992 tops 2004.

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

Gee, do you really think it will come out after 4.5 years?

He has not passed anything yet. He has a January surprise.

[TheCommentator]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

Gee, do you really think it will come out after 4.5 years?

He has not passed anything yet. He has a January surprise.

Told you so.