Vulnerable Democratic US Senate Seats in 2010.

[nkpatel1279]

Chris Dodd(CT) and Harry Reid(NV) are both personally unpopular in their home states. A guarenteed Democratic victory for the 2010 CT governors race will help Dodd win a narrow victory.
Blanche Lincoln(AR) is a backbencher from from a state that has a lot of teabaggers and she is unpopular with the Liberal Democratic base- Lincoln-D will benifit from Mike Beebe's coattails.
Mike Bennett(CO) is an appointed US Senator with 0 political experience.
Dems in PA(Specter and Sestak-D) face a tough primary- Will the Dems be united after the primary to defeat Toomey.
Democrats will hold on to IL(Giannoulias-D will benifit from Pat Quinn/Dan Hynes coattails in the IL Governors race and Dems will every statewide election in IL. DE- Castle-R will get destroyed by the teabaggers.
Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH. MO is a definite, NH-if Ayotte loses in the primary to Lamongte,and OH is 50-50 race. 

[nkpatel1279]

Looking at the states Obama is popular- CT,DE,and IL. CT is similar to the 2009 NJ Governors Race- the Democratic incumbent- Chris Dodd is highly unpopular ie Corzine and the Republican nominee- Rob Simmons-is a moderate Republican ie Christie. If Dodd wins- it will be due to Barack Obama's help. If Dodd loses- it will due to the issues facing Dodd. In DE- Beau Biden-D is a household name in DE. He is a much stronger candidate than Mike Castle-R who is unpopular with the Teabagger wing of the Republican party who will stay home in the General election. In IL- Giannoulias is a generic Democratic candidate and Mark Kirk is moving to the right which will hurt him in the general.
Regarding PA,NV,AR,and CO. Lincoln(AR) will have rely on Mike Beebe's coattails and rely on local issues. Make this race between the AR Democratic Party vs the National Republican Party. In PA Democrats will have to portray Toomey as a nutcase.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Looking at the states Obama is popular- CT,DE,and IL. CT is similar to the 2009 NJ Governors Race- the Democratic incumbent- Chris Dodd is highly unpopular ie Corzine and the Republican nominee- Rob Simmons-is a moderate Republican ie Christie. If Dodd wins- it will be due to Barack Obama's help. If Dodd loses- it will due to the issues facing Dodd. In DE- Beau Biden-D is a household name in DE. He is a much stronger candidate than Mike Castle-R who is unpopular with the Teabagger wing of the Republican party who will stay home in the General election. In IL- Giannoulias is a generic Democratic candidate and Mark Kirk is moving to the right which will hurt him in the general.
Regarding PA,NV,AR,and CO. Lincoln(AR) will have rely on Mike Beebe's coattails and rely on local issues. Make this race between the AR Democratic Party vs the National Republican Party. In PA Democrats will have to portray Toomey as a nutcase.

And by the time they get around to that it may be too late. Toomey has been doing an excellent job at moving to the center and the fact that there is another even more conservative candidate in running helps him do that.

[nkpatel1279]

PA,NV,and CO have competitive Governors Races. In NV- Jim Gibbons-R is going to lose in the primary to Brian Sandavol. Brian Sandoval will defeat Rory Reid in the general. In CO- Bill Ritter-D will lose in the general election to Scott McInnis. Republicans are favored to win the PA Governors Race which will help Toomey in the general.

[nkpatel1279]

Regarding the PA US Senate Race. If Specter is the Democratic Nominee and Jack Wagner is the Democratic Nominee for Governorship- Then Pat Toomey wins due to low Democratic Turnout in the Philadelphia Burbs. If Specter or Sestak  is the Democratic Nominee and Joe Hoefell or Dan Onorato is the Democratic Nominee for Governorship- Then Specter or Sestak will have a shot.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looking at the states Obama is popular- CT,DE,and IL. CT is similar to the 2009 NJ Governors Race- the Democratic incumbent- Chris Dodd is highly unpopular ie Corzine and the Republican nominee- Rob Simmons-is a moderate Republican ie Christie. If Dodd wins- it will be due to Barack Obama's help. If Dodd loses- it will due to the issues facing Dodd. In DE- Beau Biden-D is a household name in DE. He is a much stronger candidate than Mike Castle-R who is unpopular with the Teabagger wing of the Republican party who will stay home in the General election. In IL- Giannoulias is a generic Democratic candidate and Mark Kirk is moving to the right which will hurt him in the general.
Regarding PA,NV,AR,and CO. Lincoln(AR) will have rely on Mike Beebe's coattails and rely on local issues. Make this race between the AR Democratic Party vs the National Republican Party. In PA Democrats will have to portray Toomey as a nutcase.

And by the time they get around to that it may be too late. Toomey has been doing an excellent job at moving to the center and the fact that there is another even more conservative candidate in running helps him do that.

Toomey isn't my favorite in the world, but take it from someone who lived in his district: He certainly does not come across as a nutcase.  Santorum, that guy was a nutcase.  Toomey is a well spoken fiscal conservative with mainline social conservative cred who easily picked up and held a Democratic swing district.

[nkpatel1279]

A recent Republican poll in DE has Biden-D leading Castle-R by a 5 points.
Democrats will hold on to DE(Biden),IL(Giannoulias),and NY(Gillibrand).
The seats Democrats will have trouble holding on is AR(Lincoln),CO(Bennet),CT(Dodd),NV(Reid),and PA(Specter). Lincoln(AR) and Reid(NV) will benifit from weak GOP challengers. Obama's popularity helps Dodd(CT). PA stays Democratic assuming Specter is the nominee if Joe Hoeffel is the Democratic nominee for Governor.
Democrats will pick up MO. NH if Republicans nominate Ovide Lamongte. OH is a 50-50 race.

[nkpatel1279]

2010 is going to be similar to 1998 or 2002. It will be a +1 or +2 seat either side.
Democrats will hold on to their open or appointed seats in DE,IL,and NY. DE and IL will be 10-15 point races favoring the Democratic nominee.
Looking at the vulnerable Democratic incumbents- Lincoln(AR) and Reid(NV) will hold on due to the weakness of the Republican party- the Republican nominee in AR and NV are unknown and too extreme. Dodd(CT),Bennett(CO),and Specter(PA) are in tossup races. Obama and Biden can help Dodd(CT) and Specter(PA). Bennett(CO) will need to rely on high Hispanic turnout. If a Democratic seat were to go Republican- I would say Bennett(CO).
Looking at the Republican seats Democrats will pick up. I would say MO is a likely pickup due to Robin Carnahan-D being a household name and Roy Blunt-R being unpopular with independents. Regarding OH- Fisher ran for Statewide Office in 1990- it was a neutral year nationally- but Republican statewide in OH. Fisher won by a 50-50 margin(State AG), In 1994- A major GOP year nationally and statewide- Fisher lost re-election by a 51-49. In 1998-neutral year- GOP year statewide. Fisher lost the OH Governors race to Bob Taft- before he became a disaster by a 50-45 percent margin. 2010 is going to be a neutral year nationally and statewide in OH. The Republican nominee Portman is more popular than Taft. He is not nutty as Ken Blackwell. He is in a much better situation than Mike DeWine was in 2006. The downside with Portman is his close ties with George W. Bush. Regarding NH- if KellyAyotte is the GOP nominee- Republicans have a 50-50 chance of keeping NH. otherwise- DEM pickup.

[East Coast Republican]

Chris Dodd(CT) and Harry Reid(NV) are both personally unpopular in their home states. A guarenteed Democratic victory for the 2010 CT governors race will help Dodd win a narrow victory.
Blanche Lincoln(AR) is a backbencher from from a state that has a lot of teabaggers and she is unpopular with the Liberal Democratic base- Lincoln-D will benifit from Mike Beebe's coattails.
Mike Bennett(CO) is an appointed US Senator with 0 political experience.
Dems in PA(Specter and Sestak-D) face a tough primary- Will the Dems be united after the primary to defeat Toomey.
Democrats will hold on to IL(Giannoulias-D will benifit from Pat Quinn/Dan Hynes coattails in the IL Governors race and Dems will every statewide election in IL. DE- Castle-R will get destroyed by the teabaggers.
Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH. MO is a definite, NH-if Ayotte loses in the primary to Lamongte,and OH is 50-50 race. 

Don't quit your day job.  Put this garbage back on your diary at Daily Kos where it belongs.

I can't believe people here are taking this guy seriously. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Chris Dodd(CT) and Harry Reid(NV) are both personally unpopular in their home states. A guarenteed Democratic victory for the 2010 CT governors race will help Dodd win a narrow victory.
Blanche Lincoln(AR) is a backbencher from from a state that has a lot of teabaggers and she is unpopular with the Liberal Democratic base- Lincoln-D will benifit from Mike Beebe's coattails.
Mike Bennett(CO) is an appointed US Senator with 0 political experience.
Dems in PA(Specter and Sestak-D) face a tough primary- Will the Dems be united after the primary to defeat Toomey.
Democrats will hold on to IL(Giannoulias-D will benifit from Pat Quinn/Dan Hynes coattails in the IL Governors race and Dems will every statewide election in IL. DE- Castle-R will get destroyed by the teabaggers.
Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH. MO is a definite, NH-if Ayotte loses in the primary to Lamongte,and OH is 50-50 race. 

Don't quit your day job.  Put this garbage back on your diary at Daily Kos where it belongs.

I can't believe people here are taking this guy seriously. 

Uh... no, they aren't.

[DemocratsVictory2008]

Dems hold: DE, IL, CO, CA, PA, ND

Dems Gain: MO

GOP holds: OH, KY, NC

GOP Gains: CT, AR, NV