New "Battleground" - Bush +3/+4

[The Vorlon]

http://www.tarrance.com/files/Week%205%20charts.pdf

[J-Mann]

Thanks Vorlon!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Interesting....tied or Kerry +1 for most of the week, with Bush bouncing ahead on the last day, Thursday.

I assume dates indicate the last day of the sample; meaning they are sampling Sun-Thurs as opposed to Sat-Wed.
If so, this pretty much matches the other tracking polls.

[J. J.]

This is not a bump.

[J-Mann]

So let me get this straight.  With an unaided ballot (which I assume is just asking "who would you vote for") there are 13% undecideds, and only 5% with a ballot that includes names?  Are there really that many people who would respond "I don't know" if they weren't given a "cheat sheet" with the candidates' names on it!?

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right.  Battleground is a good poll.

[Whacker77]

This poll seems to show what we saw in the ABC and WAPO polls.  Kerry entered the week with some momentum, but it quickly swung back to Bush.  If you look at the trend lines for each topic, they all moved strongly in Bush favor on the last day of polling.  That seems to fit what we have seen this weekend, but we won't know what Battleground found until next week.  Crap!

[Shira]

Is this a rolling poll?
Does it include battleground states only?
What do you think happened that in most polls Bush gained between 2% to 5% in two days ?

Was the third debate a success story for Bush?

[Sam Spade]

At least the polls seem to be saying the same thing right now.  It will be curious to see how this affects the state polls in the upcoming weeks.

[agcatter]

That is my question.  Is this a rolling poll?  If so, does it roll for 5 days?

[MODU]

The third debate was a "success" for Bush since Kerry had to nail it.  With Bush polling even with Kerry on the results of the third debate, on DOMESTIC issues at that, showed that Kerry performed poorly.  I think the Mary Cheney issue also plays into this.

[lonestar]

The "Who do you think would be better at...." questions all seem pretty strong for Bush.  Bush's Job approval number is great news! 

Its hard to believe that John Kerry has higher unfavorables than President Bush.......

[Sam Spade]

Battleground only polls Sun-Thurs.  

In the South especially, Friday and Saturday are bad days to poll in the fall because of high school and college football.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Is this a rolling poll?
Does it include battleground states only?
What do you think happened that in most polls Bush gained between 2% to 5% in two days ?

Was the third debate a success story for Bush?

It looks like Bush may have gained about 1% following the third debate, in terms or tracking poll averages.  Comparing today's samples (the first totally post-debate samples) to Thursday (the last totally pre-debate), Bush is even in TIPP and Rasmussen, gained 1% in Zogby, and gained 4% in WP.

[A18]

http://www.tarrance.com/files/Week%205%20charts.pdf

What's +3/+4?

4 LV, 3 RV?

[The Vorlon]

http://www.tarrance.com/files/Week%205%20charts.pdf

What's +3/+4?

4 LV, 3 RV?

+4 unaided ballot (equates roughly to "core support")
+3 aided ballot

[Shira]

Is this a rolling poll?
Does it include battleground states only?
What do you think happened that in most polls Bush gained between 2% to 5% in two days ?

Was the third debate a success story for Bush?

It looks like Bush may have gained about 1% following the third debate, in terms or tracking poll averages.  Comparing today's samples (the first totally post-debate samples) to Thursday (the last totally pre-debate), Bush is even in TIPP and Rasmussen, gained 1% in Zogby, and gained 4% in WP.

Zogby poll today is very good for Kerry. Kerry apparently had 2% advantage in the 10/16 poll. Except for Zogby all other polls are Kerry killers.

[ATFFL]

Looking at the internal questions almost everything is back where it was before the dabates.  The exceptions are John Kerry's strong favorable (up 8 points) and the strong leader question (gap closed from Bush +11 to Bush +6.)

[Whacker77]

The interesting thing about the Battleground numbers come from the internals.  On the last day polling was conducted, each of the underlying questions were back to levels Bush had when he enjoyed an eight point lead in the poll.  Thursday must have been a dynamite day for Bush.  Maybe these were the numbers Charlie Cook was refering to on "Hardboiled" Friday.  I wish they would release these numbers daily now that there are 16 days to go.

[John]

I Think The Next two Weeks for John Kerry is Trouble for Him

[No more McShame]

Is this a rolling poll?
Does it include battleground states only?
What do you think happened that in most polls Bush gained between 2% to 5% in two days ?

Was the third debate a success story for Bush?

It looks like Bush may have gained about 1% following the third debate, in terms or tracking poll averages.  Comparing today's samples (the first totally post-debate samples) to Thursday (the last totally pre-debate), Bush is even in TIPP and Rasmussen, gained 1% in Zogby, and gained 4% in WP.

Zogby poll today is very good for Kerry. Kerry apparently had 2% advantage in the 10/16 poll. Except for Zogby all other polls are Kerry killers.

That should tell you something about Zogby's bias.  He seems to root a little too much for the Democrat for me to take his polls too seriously.