Georgia Megathread

Bacon King
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	Georgia Megathread « on: November 17, 2009, 01:16:39 PM »
	« edited: November 17, 2009, 01:20:09 PM by Bacon Veep »

This will be my thread for everything Georgia-related, specifically the 2010 statewide elections but I'll be touching on other things as well.

I'll start by providing an overview of the big races.

The Race for Governor

The fight to replace Sonny Perdue will be long and bloody, in both primaries as well as the general election. Look especially for the Republican race to be extremely negative.

The Republican Primary

Nathan Deal: United States Congressman from Gainesville, Hall County who represents northern Georgia outside of most of the Atlanta suburbs. He entered the race in late May, and as of June 30th had already raised $1.2 million. He's largely unknown outside of his district but has a huge following inside it. He's also the only candidate currently serving in Washington, and I don't know how that will play. He's not running for reelection to his House seat so presumably this race is all-or-nothing for him.

Eric Johnson: He was the President Pro Tempore of the Georgia State Senate who recently resigned from his Savannah-area district to run for Governor full-time. Georgia's PPT is term limited, so had he stayed in the Senate he would have faced a demotion. He was originally planning on a run for Lt. Governor but when Cagle decided to run for reelection, Johnson decided to go for the Governorship. While he's unknown outside of Savannah he managed to raise almost a million dollars in the month after his announcement, demonstrating that he'll be giving this race his all.

Karen Handel: Current Georgia Secretary of State and said to be Sonny Perdue's chosen successor. Indeed, she was his Deputy Chief of Staff before she got elected as Chairman of the Fulton County (Atlanta) Board of Commissioners. She's got a bit of a political base in the suburbs of north Fulton County, which certainly helped her raise the half-million dollars she did by June 30th before she really even began actively campaigning. Conspiracy theorists point out that she's the person in charge of operating the electronic voting machines the election will be held on.

John Oxendine: Current Georgia Insurance Commissioner who's considered the front runner because he's been in the race much longer than anyone else. He's raised almost $1.5 million to date and has $1 million cash on hand. He's got a bit of a political base in Gwinnett County though because he's been campaigning for almost two years he's developed much more statewide campaign infrastructure. He's gotten in some trouble lately over illegal donations from insurance companies via fake PACs in Alabama; if that scandal becomes a big deal and/or has it's day in court, Oxendine's campaign would basically be over. Also, his campaign released this hilarious video which you should definitely see if you haven't. Still, the guy's trying really hard here and has been working on it for a while.

Austin Scott: State Representative from rural southern Georgia who's running a smaller campaign but will probably win the counties in his area. He's chairman of the State House's Governmental Affairs Committee so presumably he's got some influence. He raised $180,000 by June 30th, over half of which he immediately invested in his campaign. Still, I doubt he has much of a chance unless all the big-name candidates tear each other to pieces.

Jeff Chapman: State Senator from Brunswick, Glynn County, on the coast. His website is interesting and unorthodox; if you've got the time take a glance at it. He's a new entrant to the race and thus no fundraising data is available. He'll have to raise some big money to play catch-up with the other candidates if he wants a shot at winning this race. I'd assume, though, he's mainly running next year to make the contacts for a later campaign in a lesser office.

There's also Ray McBerry, a non-factor protest candidate who's run before without gaining any traction and who's raised practically no money. Might get a couple of percentage points at most, but even that is a big deal in this big of a race.

There's really no clear favorite between Deal, Handel, Johnson, and Oxendine; all four have a strong ability to fund raise, a hold on their own geographic political base, and a complete commitment to winning this race. It will be long, bloody, and make for spectacular political drama. The other two/three candidates are wildcards, who hold the balance in what is otherwise a four-way split. This race will definitely be going to a run-off. Between who, it's impossible to tell.

The map itself will also be exciting (for us pol junkies anyway), in some ways strongly resembling an old "friends-and-neighbors" primary- each candidate besides McBerry has their own area they're basically guaranteed to win.

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tmthforu94
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