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  2010 NKP US Senate Prediction Thread.
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Author Topic: 2010 NKP US Senate Prediction Thread.  (Read 1239 times)
nkpatel1279
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« on: November 23, 2009, 09:56:21 am »

Safe Democratic.
1)Hawaii-(Inouye-D)
2)Indiana-(Bayh-D)
3)Maryland-(Mikulski-D)
4)Massachusetts Special 1/2010- (OPEN-Kirk-D)- Coakley-D.
5)New York-A (Schumer-D)
6)New York-B (Gillibrand-D) if Rudy or Pataki does not run.
7)North Dakota- (Dorgan-D)-if Hoeven-R does not run.
8)Oregon-(Wyden-D)
9)Vermont-(Leahy-D)
10)Washington-(Murray-D)
11)Wisconsin-(Feingold-D) if Tommy Thompson does not run.

Safe Republican.
1)Alabama-(Shelby-R)
2)Alaska-(Murkowski-R)
3)Arizona-(McCAin-R)-if McCain wins the GOP primary.
4)Georgia-(Isakson-R)
5)Idaho-(Crapo-R)
6)Iowa-(Grassley-R)
7)Kansas-(OPEN-Brownback-R)-Jerry Moran-R.
8)Oklahoma-(Coburn-R)
9)South Carolina-(DeMint-R)
10)South Dakota-(Thune-R)
11)Utah-(Bennett-R)

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2009, 10:08:10 am »

Likely Democratic.
1)California-(Boxer-D).

Likely Republican.
1)Florida-(OPEN-LeMieux-R)-if Crist-R is the GOP nominee.
2)Louisiana-(Vitter-R)

Leans Democratic.
Arkansas-(Blanche Lincoln-D)-if she votes for cloture on HCR but votes against the actual bill itself.
Delaware-(OPEN-Kaufman-D)- Beau Biden-D will get alot of help from Papa Biden and President Obama- Mike Castle will get destroyed by the wingnuts in his party.
Illinios-(OPEN-Burris-D)- Alexi Giannoulias-D will get help from Obama,the Madigans,and the Daley's. Kirk-R is alienating Moderates by reaching out to Palin.
Nevada-(Reid-D)-if HCR passes.
New Hampshire-(OPEN-Gregg-R)- If GOP frontrunner- Kelly Ayotte gets Scaffozed.
New York-B(Gillibrand-D)-if Rudy or Pataki runs.
Pennsylvania-(Specter-D)-if Sestak is the DEM Nominee or if Specter-votes for Cloture and the HCR w/out Stupak language.
Wisconsin-(Feingold-D)-if Tommy Thompson-R runs.

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2009, 10:23:54 am »

Leans Republican.
1)North Carolina-(Burr-R)

Tossup.
1)Arizona- if McCain loses in the GOP primary.
2)Arkansas-if Lincoln votes against Cloture on HCR.
3)Colorado-Bennett-D.
4)Connecticut-Dodd-D.
5)Florida- if Crist loses the GOP primary.
6)Kentucky- OPEN-Bunning-R
7)Missouri-OPEN-Bond-R.
8)Nevada- if HCR does not pass.
9)New Hampshire- if Ayotte-R is the GOP nominee.
10)North Dakota- if Hoeven-R runs.
11)Ohio-OPEN-Voinovich-R.

Democratic pickup will be MO,NH,and OH. MO is greater than 50-50 chance. NH is 50-50 if Ayotte is the GOP nominee but greater than 50-50 if Ayotte loses the GOP primary. OH is a 50-50 chance.

Democratic loss in the US Senate will be
Colorado and Connecticut.  CO will be a greater than 50-50 loss if HCR does not pass. if HCR passes. then Bennett-D gets re-elected. Regarding CT. Dodd has lost his popularity due to Mortgage Scandal-Financial Crisis. Passing HCR will help Dodd narrowly win re-election.
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