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Poll
Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
None   -4 (3.5%)
1-4   -2 (1.8%)
5-9   -7 (6.1%)
10-17   -21 (18.4%)
18-22   -23 (20.2%)
23-44   -32 (28.1%)
45 or more   -25 (21.9%)
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Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 39268 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« on: November 24, 2009, 05:56:45 am »

While its a little early to give firm estimates on the change in the composition of the House of Representatives as a result of the 2010 election, it would be interesting to see if members of this forum are in any way realistic.

So go ahead and vote and discuss.
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Franzl
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2009, 06:09:34 am »

I'd guess about 25.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2009, 09:29:02 am »

I figure maybe 10 to 17.  Could be a lot higher: Democrats have won a bunch of seats in 2006 and 2008 that they really just have no business holding based on the PVI.
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officepark
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2009, 09:39:22 am »

I'd guess about 25.
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2009, 10:16:37 am »

Looking at the seats Democrats picked up in 2006 and won easily in 2008.
1)AZ-5(Mitchell-D)
2)AZ-8(Giffords-D)
3)CA-11(McNerney-D)
4)CO-7(Perlmutter-D)-
5)CT-2(Courtney-D)
6)CT-5(Murphy-D)
7)FL-22(Klein-D)
8)IN-2(Donnelly-D)
9)IN-8(Ellsworth-D)
10)IN-9(Hill-D)
11)IA-1(Braley-D)
12)IA-2(Loesback-D)
13)KY-3(Yarmuth-D)
14)MN-1(Walz-D)
15)NH-1(Shea Porter-D)
16)NY-19(Hall-D)
17)NC-11(Schuler-D)
18)OH-18(Ney-D)
19)PA-4(Altmire-D)
20)PA-8(Murphy-D)
21)PA-10(Carney-D)
22)TX-23(Rodriguez-D)
23)WI-8(Kagan-D)

Seats Democrats won in 2008 and will hold on in 2010.
1)AZ-1(Kirkpatrick-D)
2)CO-4(Markey-D)
3)CT-4(Himes-D)
4)FL-24(Kosmas-D)
5)IL-11(Halverson-D)
6)IL-14(Foster-D)
7)MI-9(Peters-D)
8)NV-3(Titus-D)
9)NM-1(Heinrich-D)
10)NY-13(McMahon-D)
11)NY-25(Maffei-D)
12)NC-8(Kissell-D)
13)OH-16(Boccieri-D)
14)PA-3(Dahlkemper-D)
15)VA-11(Connolly-D)

The seats Democrats are in danger of losing is.
1)AL-2(Bright-D)
2)AL-5(Griffith-D)
3)FL-8(Grayson-D)
4)ID-1(Minnick-D)
5)IA-3(Boswell-D)-
6)KS-3(OPEN-Moore-D)
7)LA-3(OPEN-Melancon-D)
8)MD-1(Kravotil-D)
9)MI-7(Schauer-D)
10)MS-1(Childers-D)
11)NH-2(OPEN-Hodes-D)
12)NJ-3(Adler-D)
13)NM-2(Teague-D)
14)NY-20(Murphy-D)
15)NY-23(Owens-D)
16)NY-24(Arcuri-D)
17)NY-29(Massa-D)
18)OH-1(Driehaus-D)
19)OH-15(Kilroy-D)
20)PA-11(Kanjorski-D)-rematch with Barletta-R.
21)PA-7(OPEN-Sestak-D)
22)VA-2(Nye-D)
23)VA-5(Perriello-D)

Democrats will pick up DE-AL,IL-10,LA-2,and PA-6.

Cuomo-Schumer-Gillibrand coattails will help Murphy,Owens,Arcuri,and Massa.
Lynch-Hodes will help the DEM nominee in NH-2.
Specter/Sestak and Hoefell-as DEM nominee for Governor will help DEMs win PA-6 and PA-7 and PA-11.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2009, 10:22:06 am »

No idea. 20 maybe?? either way, it will be a gain for Republicans across the board.
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2009, 11:38:43 am »

I say 18-22 seats.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2009, 02:48:32 pm »

Around 20, maybe a bit less. Of course, guesstimating right now is quite silly.
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Apollo
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2009, 06:42:34 pm »

i'm thinking around the 18-22 range as well, although a number like 25 wouldn't surprise me much
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2009, 06:43:42 pm »

23-44, but definately on the lower end of that range.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2009, 06:43:53 pm »

Around 20, maybe a bit less. Of course, guesstimating right now is quite silly.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2009, 06:55:05 pm »

257 -- Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand coattails will save Jose Serrano.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2009, 09:56:46 pm »

My guess is that Democrats lose everything that they gained in 2008.  That would mean around 20-25 seats. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2009, 06:24:16 pm »

30-35
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2009, 08:19:33 pm »

I'm thinking 10-15.
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« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2009, 08:31:02 pm »

As of right now 20-25 seats and this is probably the best case scenario for them. If they still fail to overcome Republican obstructionism and don't implement their agenda by 2010, expect closer to 40-50 seats to fall.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2009, 09:31:55 pm »

23-44, but definately on the lower end of that range.
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Vepres
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« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2009, 09:51:45 pm »

30-35 if they pass some sort of healthcare, or a complete bloodbath if they fail to pass reform.
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President North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2009, 12:04:57 am »

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2009, 01:55:44 am »

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats. 
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« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2009, 02:20:30 am »

Lose about 20 seats, gain about 5, for a net of around 15.
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2009, 02:22:37 am »

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats.  

While obviously they don't have most of the blame now, the last time that the Democratic party was blamed for a depression during a midterm election was 1894. Democrats had a truly epic loss, going  from 61% to 26% in that election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2009, 01:25:58 pm »

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats.  

While obviously they don't have most of the blame now, the last time that the Democratic party was blamed for a depression during a midterm election was 1894. Democrats had a truly epic loss, going  from 61% to 26% in that election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1894


That depression was far worse, and furthermore, the GOP was an acceptable alternative, even in parts of the South at that point(and it was this GOP resurgence among white voters in the south which led to Jim Crow).  The GOP does not even exist in places like Massachusetts and Rhode Island, or in urban seats. The GOP frankly is unlikely to have anywhere near enough serious candidates to win 276 seats. Even if unemployment was at 15%.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2009, 05:21:59 pm »

30-40
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Rowan
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« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2009, 09:35:56 pm »

More than you expect.
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