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  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
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Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
#1None  
#21-4  
#35-9  
#410-17  
#518-22  
#623-44  
#745 or more  
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Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 39931 times)
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
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« Reply #50 on: December 27, 2009, 01:00:40 pm »

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it Tongue

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.

Hey I'll also bring up the fact he thinks every House seat in PA from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia except Kanjorski will flip to the GOP.  I think I have my new Pennsylvania flame-war buddy now that Phil's gone.
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Bo
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« Reply #51 on: December 27, 2009, 03:24:32 pm »

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Why did Phil leave this forum?
Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it Tongue

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.

Hey I'll also bring up the fact he thinks every House seat in PA from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia except Kanjorski will flip to the GOP.  I think I have my new Pennsylvania flame-war buddy now that Phil's gone.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #52 on: December 28, 2009, 01:56:35 am »

I've been running a series of numbers recently, and the most likely scenario at this time is for a net loss (relative to the results of the 2008 elections) of 24 seats.

A lot can change between now and November, 2010 but it is likely that the Democrats will sustain a net loss of at least 17 seats but probably not more than 44.
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redcommander
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« Reply #53 on: December 28, 2009, 03:37:50 pm »

I'm thinking more than 50, possibly over 60 if things continue to go downhill.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #54 on: December 28, 2009, 03:58:44 pm »

If we can keep our incumbants in the Senate, I think that will neutralize the down the ballot races. 
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Beet
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« Reply #55 on: January 21, 2010, 09:49:11 pm »

If the election were held today, they would lose 65 to 70 seats. The GOP would win the highest percentage of the Congressional vote since the 1920s.

What's with this highly alarmist talk? Did you see the Gallup poll in the early thread?

Bump. Do more people believe this now?
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #56 on: January 21, 2010, 09:50:07 pm »

Looking to be around 28-35, now.
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Beet
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« Reply #57 on: January 21, 2010, 10:00:09 pm »

I admit 65-70 might be a bit high. But when I made that prediction even I didn't see MA-SEN coming!

Just figure out this: how many blue dog / McCain districts are represented by Democrats (answer: 49)? Because you can pretty much kiss 90% of them goodbye, as of today. I also expect a net loss in districts that voted for Obama.

The Democrats' only hope in containing losses to the currently expected 28-35 lies in things getting better by November.
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #58 on: January 23, 2010, 08:54:33 pm »

If I had more time, I'm sure I could come up with more than 5 safe Democrats in McCain seats. Actually just two off the bat are the two in Arkansas who aren't Snyder (one who doesn't even have an opponent yet.)
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #59 on: January 23, 2010, 09:36:07 pm »

I'd say 20-25.

25-30 now.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #60 on: January 24, 2010, 06:58:21 am »

I'd say 20-25.

25-30 now.

I think you are probably correct.

Also, its the ideal number for Republicans.

They won't be a majority, so they won't be saddled with responsibility.

Also, they can hope to keep Nancy 'the nutcase' Pelosi up front and center.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #61 on: January 25, 2010, 06:53:16 am »

I predict the dems will have a 6 seat majority in the House come Jan 2011.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #62 on: January 25, 2010, 07:15:29 am »

I predict the dems will have a 6 seat majority in the House come Jan 2011.

Sounds good.

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J. J.
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« Reply #63 on: February 02, 2010, 11:25:09 pm »

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it Tongue

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.

Amazing how my prediction is now the middle of the top answer bracket.  Wink
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Iosif
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« Reply #64 on: March 26, 2010, 05:14:50 am »

8. They'll lose a net of 8 seats.
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Bo
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« Reply #65 on: August 11, 2010, 05:00:45 pm »

I'd say 18 to 22. They will probably pick up around 5 and lose around 25, thus for a net loss of about 20.

I'd say 23-44 now.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #66 on: August 11, 2010, 05:02:16 pm »

29
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #67 on: August 11, 2010, 05:08:51 pm »

About 60.
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Bo
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« Reply #68 on: August 11, 2010, 05:15:41 pm »

About 60.

What is your reasoning for this? That's even more than they lost in 1994, after they failed to pass healthcare reform.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #69 on: August 11, 2010, 05:38:28 pm »

32 seats.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #70 on: August 11, 2010, 05:42:03 pm »
« Edited: August 11, 2010, 05:45:33 pm by WEB Dubois »

24 seats in the House and 4 senate seats.
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redcommander
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« Reply #71 on: August 11, 2010, 05:45:33 pm »

35 seats right now.
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Beet
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« Reply #72 on: August 11, 2010, 05:45:59 pm »

Um. Intrade has it priced at around 60% that Democrats will lose the house. That puts the loss at more than 38 seats. How much more than 38 seats depends on what you think the shape of the average probability function across the traders on Intrade assign to their certainty of estimation.
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Vepres
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« Reply #73 on: August 11, 2010, 08:45:03 pm »

35 - 55

Anybody who says they may only lose 20-ish seats is in denial Tongue
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olowakandi
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« Reply #74 on: August 11, 2010, 08:57:33 pm »
« Edited: August 11, 2010, 09:04:07 pm by WEB Dubois »

Well, didn't Cook predict precisely a 25 seat loss? Down from his earlier prediction of 35 seats.  As far as Intrade, they are basing it on speculation, I think time will tell whether the Dems can get back in it and the election is 3 months off anyways, alot can change.
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