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  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House? (search mode)
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Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
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#35-9  
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Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 39957 times)
Beet
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« on: December 14, 2009, 02:46:53 pm »

If the election were held today, they would lose 65 to 70 seats. The GOP would win the highest percentage of the Congressional vote since the 1920s.
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2010, 09:49:11 pm »

If the election were held today, they would lose 65 to 70 seats. The GOP would win the highest percentage of the Congressional vote since the 1920s.

What's with this highly alarmist talk? Did you see the Gallup poll in the early thread?

Bump. Do more people believe this now?
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2010, 10:00:09 pm »

I admit 65-70 might be a bit high. But when I made that prediction even I didn't see MA-SEN coming!

Just figure out this: how many blue dog / McCain districts are represented by Democrats (answer: 49)? Because you can pretty much kiss 90% of them goodbye, as of today. I also expect a net loss in districts that voted for Obama.

The Democrats' only hope in containing losses to the currently expected 28-35 lies in things getting better by November.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2010, 05:45:59 pm »

Um. Intrade has it priced at around 60% that Democrats will lose the house. That puts the loss at more than 38 seats. How much more than 38 seats depends on what you think the shape of the average probability function across the traders on Intrade assign to their certainty of estimation.
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