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  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House? (search mode)
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Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
#1None  
#21-4  
#35-9  
#410-17  
#518-22  
#623-44  
#745 or more  
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Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 39909 times)
Mr.Phips
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« on: November 25, 2009, 09:56:46 pm »

My guess is that Democrats lose everything that they gained in 2008.  That would mean around 20-25 seats. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2009, 01:55:44 am »

5 to 10 if the pass Health Care

15 to 30 if they don't

Unemployement stays above 10% through November 25- 40

There is a double dip recession/Depression 50-100

100 seats?  Even in the horrible Democratic years between 1994 and 2006, Democrats never fell below 203 seats. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2009, 12:25:15 am »

Only time will tell on this.  We talk about 1994 a lot, but remember that nobody saw the 52 seat loss the Dems incurred coming.  They were completely blindsided.

It's gonna depend on the economic situation of the country, and other variables.  15 seat minimum pick up.. but wouldn't be surprised to see upwards of 30.

The difference this time is that Democrats expect to get their asses kicked next year. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2009, 02:59:27 am »
« Edited: December 27, 2009, 03:15:33 am by Mr.Phips »

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it Tongue

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

So you would expect that Republicans lose big again in 2012?  Especially considering that Democrats likely wont work with Republicans the way they did on a good number of issues in 1995 and 1996, which made Republicans look somewhat competent.  This time, you will likely see Democrats blocking almost every Republican initiative. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2010, 05:38:28 pm »

32 seats.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2010, 11:04:38 pm »

I say 30 now. Ill say this, and I may be proven wrong, but if the Democrats retain Congress, President Obama will lose in 2012 and/or one chamber goes Republican.

Ill take that in a heartbeat.  As long as Obama is out in 2012. 
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