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  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House? (search mode)
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Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
#1None  
#21-4  
#35-9  
#410-17  
#518-22  
#623-44  
#745 or more  
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Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 39910 times)
Vepres
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« on: November 27, 2009, 09:51:45 pm »

30-35 if they pass some sort of healthcare, or a complete bloodbath if they fail to pass reform.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,034
United States
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2009, 02:18:43 pm »

I'll say about 10-15. The GOP is still anathema in many parts of the country, any gains will have to come almost exclusively from the south.

Actually, they have real room for growth in the industrial Midwest and the Mountain West. The industrial Midwest is in decline, and they have mostly Democrats in office at the moment. In the Mountain West, there is lots of anger about growing federal power and government spending. The leadership of the GOP understands they need to run moderates, the base just has to start listening. Will they? I don't know.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,034
United States
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2009, 02:10:53 pm »

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it Tongue

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,034
United States
« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2009, 03:55:44 pm »

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it Tongue

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,034
United States
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2010, 08:45:03 pm »

35 - 55

Anybody who says they may only lose 20-ish seats is in denial Tongue
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,034
United States
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2010, 09:15:20 pm »

Well, didn't Cook predict precisely a 25 seat loss? Down from his earlier prediction of 35 seats.  As far as Intrade, they are basing it on speculation, I think time will tell whether the Dems can get back in it and the election is 3 months off anyways, alot can change.

Cook believes Republicans have a very good chance of retaking the House.
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