Xenophobic Sweden Democrats headed for parliament

[Gustaf]

I don't know if someone else has mentioned it, but as an FYI the xenophobic Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna) seems headed to break the 4% threshold and get seats in the Swedish parliament in next year's election.

Neither the left nor the right will thus be able to obtain a majority, most likely. Exactly how it will work out is unclear, so there may be political chaos. I may dig up the actual polls but right now you will have to take my word: basically a large number of polls, including the most reliable ones show SD as high as 5%. 

[Tender Branson]

To cite 2 of the more common polls in Sweden:

Synovate

SD @ 4.7%

http://www.synovate.se/upload/Synovate_26%20nov_2009.pdf

Sifo

SD @ 5.8%

http://www.tns-sifo.se/nyheter/vaeljarbarometern-november-2009

Sifo mentions that there was a debate about the SD recently (what kind of debate, Gustaf ?) and that their support among men rose from 4.7% to 8.9%, but it dropped from 4.7% to 2.6% among women. The party receives 12.5% support from people under-30 year old and with 11.7% it´s the third-biggest party among under-30 men. Does that mean that under-30 women are more supportive of the SD than men under 30 ? Weird.

[Хahar 🤔]

The NPD cracked 4% in West Germany in 1969. Had they had a 4% threshold, the SPD/FDP would have lacked a majority and there would have been the exact situation that Sweden seems to be headed to.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The NPD cracked 4% in West Germany in 1969. Had they had a 4% threshold, the SPD/FDP would have lacked a majority and there would have been the exact situation that Sweden seems to be headed to.

Oh Xahar you can be such a nerd sometimes.

(not a bad thing).

What bis the chances of the Pirate Party also holding the balance of power then?

[Хahar 🤔]

The NPD cracked 4% in West Germany in 1969. Had they had a 4% threshold, the SPD/FDP would have lacked a majority and there would have been the exact situation that Sweden seems to be headed to.

Oh Xahar you can be such a nerd sometimes.

Well, you know what they say:

He's basically a criminal version of NKPatel.

[Gustaf]

Forgot about this thread. To answer the questions posed:

Tender1:

SD party leader was allowed to write an article in Sweden's biggest newspaper, Aftonbladet, which was focused on alleged islamization of Sweden. The article was actually fairly harmless, apart from the last sentence which seemed to suggest the islamization or muslims is the biggest threat to the country since WWII.

However, in politically correct media circles it was generally believed that the article was so outrageous that the party was doomed. Because of this it was played up and subjected to a number of pretty absurd attacks

(Aftonbladet ran a fact-check where they claimed that there were up to 20 factual errors in the article

Example: SD-leader claimed that muslim women have higher nativity than Swedish women. Aftonbladet claims that this is wrong and cites a source claiming that women from the Middle East have 3 times the nativity of Swedish women. All in all the attack, which was made to save their conscience and reputation of course, was ludicrous)

All in all, the debate benefited the Sweden Democrats rather substantially.

Tender2: that is weird, and I'm sure it isn't true. Must be some kind of typo.

Xahar: The Pirate Party is almost certainly not getting in this time.

[Hash]

Which type of areas do you suppose will vote for SD?

[Tender Branson]

Example: SD-leader claimed that muslim women have higher nativity than Swedish women. Aftonbladet claims that this is wrong and cites a source claiming that women from the Middle East have 3 times the nativity of Swedish women. All in all the attack, which was made to save their conscience and reputation of course, was ludicrous)

Muslim women DO have higher fertility than non-Muslim (at least Austrian) women.

Currently, 6% of Austrians are Muslims, but last year there were 77.752 births in Austria, of which 49.444 (64%) were to Catholic mothers and 10.883 (14%) were to Muslim mothers.

According to the Austrian Demographic Statistical Yearbook 2008, published by Statistics Austria, the average number of children for every Austrian woman was 1.31 in 2008, whereas it was 2.71 for women of Turkish citizenship.

http://www.statistik.at/dynamic/wcmsprod/idcplg?IdcService=GET_NATIVE_FILE&dID=58397&dDocName=042258

(page 26)

[Tender Branson]

Just checked the Statistics Sweden page and it also finds higher fertility for women of countries with high Muslim populations than for native Swedish women:

For example: A woman with Swedish citizenship had an average of 1.85 children in 2008, but women with Turkish citizenship had a fertility of 2.65, from Somalia 4.19, Iraq 3.00, Iran 2.98 and Lebanese women had an average of 1.87 children.

http://www.scb.se/statistik/_publikationer/BE0101_2008A01_BR_08_BE0109TAB.pdf

(page 231)

[Tender Branson]

In other news, the Left Alliance is now above 50%, according to the SIFO poll:

Socialdemokraterna: 36.7%
Miljöpartiet: 10.3%
Vänsterpartiet: 5.2%

TOTAL LEFT: 52.2%

Moderaterna: 25.1%
Folkpartiet: 6.8%
Centern: 5.2%
Kristdemokraterna: 3.7%

TOTAL RIGHT: 40.8%

Sverigedemokraterna: 5.1%
Others: 2.0%

http://www.tns-sifo.se/media/255188/vb%20dec%202009%20gp.pdf

[Gustaf]

Which type of areas do you suppose will vote for SD?

Primarily the South (Skåne, Scania in English). That is their stronghold. The North is their weakest region and they don't do too well in Stockholm either. They will probably do all-right in the southern and central parts. They tend to do best in semi-urban areas with lots of immigrants.

[Gustaf]

In other news, the Left Alliance is now above 50%, according to the SIFO poll:

Socialdemokraterna: 36.7%
Miljöpartiet: 10.3%
Vänsterpartiet: 5.2%

TOTAL LEFT: 52.2%

Moderaterna: 25.1%
Folkpartiet: 6.8%
Centern: 5.2%
Kristdemokraterna: 3.7%

TOTAL RIGHT: 40.8%

Sverigedemokraterna: 5.1%
Others: 2.0%

http://www.tns-sifo.se/media/255188/vb%20dec%202009%20gp.pdf

Well, it would seem that the tide has turned. Of course, Sweden's biggest newspaper which is "independently" social democratic has been running a campaign on the new tough Sweden under the centre-right government. Maybe it paid off. There has been a lot of criticism of the tightening of the rules for people on sick leave in recent weeks, maybe that explains this dip for the government.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That would keep the Christian Democrats out too. With 349 Parliament seats that gives us roughly (Yes, I know it's not pure PR.)

Social Democrats 136
Greens 38
Left Party 19
TOTAL LEFT 193

Moderates 93
Liberal People's Party 25
Center 19
TOTAL RIGHT 137

Sweden Democrats 19

That'd give the Left enough to form a government.

[minionofmidas]

Currently, 6% of Austrians are Muslims, but last year there were 77.752 births in Austria, of which 49.444 (64%) were to Catholic mothers and 10.883 (14%) were to Muslim mothers.

Harebrained comparison. What percentage of women of child-bearing age are Muslims?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Ugghh, these numbers are terribly depressing.

2010 looks like it might be one of the worst years ever in Swedish Politics. Not only might we have to deal with getting Sahlin as PM and Lars Ohly as Minister of Something (horror), but we'll also get 19 Sweden Democrates running around in our beautiful Parliament Building spreading their single issue stupidity.

Give me one reason I shouldn't emigrate to Denmark.   

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You gotta love Aftonbladet Bastards

[Hash]

Give me one reason I shouldn't emigrate to Denmark.   

The Danish People's Party is much stronger than the SDs are. Move to, uh... Finland.

[Хahar 🤔]

Give me one reason I shouldn't emigrate to Denmark.   

Rasmussen.

[Gustaf]

Currently, 6% of Austrians are Muslims, but last year there were 77.752 births in Austria, of which 49.444 (64%) were to Catholic mothers and 10.883 (14%) were to Muslim mothers.

Harebrained comparison. What percentage of women of child-bearing age are Muslims?

That's not really the point though. The point was whether the muslim share of the population was increasing rapidly or not.

Anyway, I just found it amusing that someone would cite statistical evidence in favour of someone's claim and use this as grounds for calling it false.

[Tender Branson]

Currently, 6% of Austrians are Muslims, but last year there were 77.752 births in Austria, of which 49.444 (64%) were to Catholic mothers and 10.883 (14%) were to Muslim mothers.

Harebrained comparison. What percentage of women of child-bearing age are Muslims?

Certainly less than 14%.