MO: PPP: Democrats Actually Lead a 2010 Race

[Rowan]

    US SENATE – MISSOURI (PPP)
    Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
    Roy Blunt (R) 42%

    Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
    Chuck Purgason (R) 35%

    US SENATE – MISSOURI – GOP PRIMARY (PPP)
    Roy Blunt 53%
    Chuck Purgason 16%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_1118.pdf

[tmthforu94]

I'm actually content with these numbers for now. It will get Democrats to shut up that Missouri will be an easy pick-up for them.
Blunt wins this. I'm calling it now.

[Devilman88]

This right now is the Democratic only hope for a pick-up in 2010, as of right now.

[Lief 🗽]

This right now is the Democratic only hope for a pick-up in 2010, as of right now.

Er... no?

[tmthforu94]

This right now is the Democratic only hope for a pick-up in 2010, as of right now.

They still have a shot in New Hampshire and Ohio, though I think their chances there are fading by the day.

[pogo stick]

I'm actually content with these numbers for now. It will get Democrats to shut up that Missouri will be an easy pick-up for them.
Blunt wins this. I'm calling it now.

Blunt will crash and burn in the primary.

Draft Sara Steelman for Senator!

[Ronnie]

This absolutely won't be an easy pickup for the Dems.  Actually, this shouldn't even be considered as a lead.

[Eraserhead]

I'm actually content with these numbers for now. It will get Democrats to shut up that Missouri will be an easy pick-up for them.
Blunt wins this. I'm calling it now.

Yeah... I'm going to suggest not calling close races a year in advance.

[Dan the Roman]

This right now is the Democratic only hope for a pick-up in 2010, as of right now.

They still have a shot in New Hampshire and Ohio, though I think their chances there are fading by the day.

Ohio yes. In New Hampshire, Ayotte is running an invisible campaign from which she surfaces every few weeks to make a gaffe, and is likely to limp through the primary with around 44% of the vote. The NH GOP is bankrupt and badly split. That said, given her competition, she still has a decent shot.

[Ogre Mage]

Blunt wins this. I'm calling it now.

lol

[Sam Spade]

I agree with Dan, for a change, in general, on this one. 

Blunt is a stronger candidate for Missouri than most give him credit for (I believe he's stronger than the oft-praised Talent, for example, who I've often thought runs weaker than average for a Republican in MO).  And he'll almost undoubtedly be facing a much more favorable electorate.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

It's still a long way off - but it'll be one of the races to definitely watch.

[Ogre Mage]

It has not become conventional wisdom among Dems that MO is an "easy" pickup.  The most I have heard is that Carnahan is slightly to modestly favored.  Per the 2010 Senate Predictions Page, only 2 out of 93 people have ranked the race as "Strong D."  It looks like mthforu94 is setting up a strawman.

Blunt may have assets, but he has baggage as well.  To call the race for him a year before the election, in a swing state, against a candidate as strong as Carnahan, is foolish.

[nkpatel1279]

Looking at the Missouri US Senate Races.
The most popular Republican US Senator was John Danforth- who was percieved as a moderate. Danforth was elected in 1976- open seat vacated by Democrat- Stuart Symington. the original Democratic nominee Jerry Litton was killed in a plane crash- Danforth won by a 57-42 percent margin. In 1982- He narrowly won re-election against Lt Governor Harriet Woods. In 1988- Danforth beat now Governor Jay Nixon by a 68-32 percent margin.  Danforth retired in 1994.   The Republican Nominee in 1994 MO US Senate Race was John Aschcroft- who was a former two term Governor- He defeated Alan Wheat a Black US Congressman from Kansas City by a 60-36 percent margin. Aschcroft became a Santorum like US Senator. Ashcrot was in a tough re-election campaign against then Democratic Governor Mel Carnahan. Carnahan was killed in a plane crash before he posthumously defeated Aschcroft in 2000. Carnahan's widow Jean- was appointed to the Seat but narrowly lost in the 2002 special election to Jim Talent- who was a former Congressman from the St Louis area and the GOP nominee for Governor in 2000. Talent narrowly lost re-election in 2006 to Claire McCaskill.
Robin is a much stronger candidate than her mother was in 2002 and her father was in 2000 against John Aschcroft.