AR: Research 2000: Lincoln ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Research 2000 on 2009-12-2

Summary: D: 42%, R: 41%, I: 0%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Rowan]

If R2K is going to be hacks, they shouldn't show their sample:

1. Party ID: In 2008, the exit polls showed 36% Democrats and 32% Republicans, yet this poll wants us to believe that in 2010 the electorate will be 39% Democrats and 31% Republicans. Does that make sense to anyone?

2. Race: In 2008, 12% of the electorate was African-American even with Obama on the ticket, yet this poll shows that the 2010 electorate will be 13% African-American.

3. Age: In 2008, 19% of the electorate was over age 65, yet this poll wants us to believe that only 16% of the electorate will be over 60 years old.

This is just an awful awful turnout model for a midterm electorate.

[Rowan]

Oh and I love how you entered this one and not the Rasmussen one.

[jokerman]

1. Party ID: In 2008, the exit polls showed 36% Democrats and 32% Republicans, yet this poll wants us to believe that in 2010 the electorate will be 39% Democrats and 31% Republicans. Does that make sense to anyone?

I can't speak for the other factors you mentioned, but I actually can say for sure that turnout for Democrats will be greater.  2008 was a dead year for Arkansas politics; there were no competitive state-wide elections whatsoever, and as I recall there was a record low in the number of state legislature races contested.  2010 will be much more active, with the entire slate of statewide offices and also a number of competitive potential races of legislature as well as local elections.  Doubtlessly, a massive number of yellow-dog Democrats who stayed home in 2008, who were among those sampled in this R2000 poll, will be showing up to vote.  Really, the only demographic that turned out in significant numbers in 2008 were partisan, conservative republicans who showed up to vote against Obama; these are angry white men in the suburbs and small town bourgeoisie.  The vast swing-vote class of yellow dogs and independents is often caricatured as the same as the former category, but in reality it is much different.  Most Arkansans are fairly practical and non-ideological.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

More interestingly, she's only up 42-26 in a theoretical primary battle with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1. Party ID: In 2008, the exit polls showed 36% Democrats and 32% Republicans, yet this poll wants us to believe that in 2010 the electorate will be 39% Democrats and 31% Republicans. Does that make sense to anyone?

As Preston said, turnout for 2010 will be more Democratic, with the statewide races on the ballot.  There will be more Democrats, and fewer partisan Republicans, than there were in 2008.