Ukraine 2010

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The first round of the Ukrainian presidential election in January 2010 is a bit more than a month away.

Main candidates:

President Viktor Yushchenko (Our Ukraine): Incumbent President, massively unpopular with an approval of like 3%. Intends to run again.
Fmr. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych (Party of Regions): Pro-Russian crook, main opposition guy since 2004
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT): Pro-Western rival of Yushchenko, and by now the main pro-western force.
Fmr. Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Arseniy Yatsenyuk (Front for Change): Generally pro-western 'centrist'-populist candidate. Peaked in the summer, going down now. Wants massive political change etc.
MP Petro Symonenko (Communist): Nutty Communist who notably denies the 1920s famine. Also candidate of a bunch of similar fringe parties.
Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Lytvyn (Lytvyn Bloc): Incumbent speaker, member of the pro-western parliamentary majority. Populistic guy.
Serhiy Tihipko (Our Ukraine): Businessman. Kind of centrist on western/Russia divide, and is surprisingly good. I like.

Yanukovych is between 25% and 32%, Tymoshenko between 16% and 20%, Yatsenyuk is now between 6% and 8% (peaking at 15% in the summer), Lytvyn between 2% and 4%, Tihipko at 4%, Symonenko in the 3% range, Yushchenko between 2% and 3% in last of serious contenders (lol).

Yanukovych leads by a large margin in the runoff because his voting base in the east is solidified, while the west is more divided (though still favours Tymoshenko) and undecided. Apparently a lot expect her to win in the end.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sounds her last positioning towards Russia could kinda "reconcile" Eastern and Western Ukraine. Thus her large chances to win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that all of the candidates are crooks, actually. Well, other than maybe the smaller party ones (not including the incumbent!) obviously.

But it should be no surprise that Yuschenko turned out to be a lousy President. That much was always obvious.

[12th Doctor]

I am backing Yulia.  Any woman who can wield an sawed off AK-47 and ward of hitmen is a winner n my book.  Plus... my God... most attractive female politician of my time.

[big bad fab]

A woman who changed the colour of her hair only for... "political" reasons ?

Yanukovych will win because if his opponents' divisions.

Isn't Tihipko quite populistic too ?
And when will he disappoints us, like Yulia in the past ?

Really, this country should have been, with Poland, the BIG EU priority since 1989.

But we are too busy with small infights between UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy; too busy with dealing with this great new member, Cyprus, and with this major fail since 1963 (Turkey), to which the EU should have said no very early and then bring in a big cooperation.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A woman who changed the colour of her hair only for... "political" reasons ?

Yanukovych will win because if his opponents' divisions.

Isn't Tihipko quite populistic too ?
And when will he disappoints us, like Yulia in the past ?

Really, this country should have been, with Poland, the BIG EU priority since 1989.

But we are too busy with small infights between UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy; too busy with dealing with this great new member, Cyprus, and with this major fail since 1963 (Turkey), to which the EU should have said no very early and then bring in a big cooperation.

Well seeing how the whole eastern part of the country seems to have remained pro-Russia along the years, and knowing this is the economical force of Ukraine, whatever the EU could have done could have it work? No one will never know, but just to say that EU can't do everything if there isn't some adhesion to it.

I'm curious to know in what languages is the campaign done Ukrainian, or Ukrainian/Russian.

[Hash]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34650/yanukovych_is_definite_frontrunner_in_ukraine

Yanukovych 29.8
Tymoshenko 14.8
Tihipko 5.7
Yatsenyuk 4.8
Yushchenko 4.3
Symonenko 2.9
Lytvyn 2.5

[they don't love you like i love you]

Is Our Ukraine likely to dissolve after this?

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Is Our Ukraine likely to dissolve after this?

Hard to say. Ukraine doesn't have political parties per se, but rather personalist movements based around a person or group. Assuming Yuschenko loses badly, I would assume his movement would fold rather quickly or become politically irrelevant.

[Tender Branson]

Yanukovych leads final polls before Jan. 17 Ukrainian election

Ukraine's presidential election campaign entered its last two weeks on Saturday with the final opinion polls predicting victory for Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych.

Ukrainian law prohibits the publication of any opinion polls less than 14 days before an election. Voting is due to take place from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Sunday, January 17. Campaigning finishes on the Friday, with voters given the Saturday to consider their choice in an atmosphere of quiet.

The Central Election Committee has registered 18 candidates, including Yanukovych, incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and former Rada speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

Polls predict that no candidate will secure an outright majority in the first round, with Yanukovych expected to garner around 30% to 20% for Tymoshenko.

Surveys show that the Party of Regions leader will go on to beat the prime minister in a runoff due at the start of February.

Yushchenko is expected to receive less than 5% of the first-round vote.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100102/157448150.html

http://www.ukrainianjournal.com/index.php?w=article&id=9709

[Tender Branson]

First round is today:

I`d say Yanukovych wins with about 33%, Tymoshenko gets 22%, Tigipko is third with 15%.

All others will have less than 10%.

[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls:

Viktor Yanukovich, generally known as a pro-Russian candidate, is in the lead in Ukraine’s Presidential Elections taking place Sunday, according to an exit poll carried out by the Russian news agency Interfax.

The poll results show that 36,1% of the Ukrainian voters have backed Yanukovich, who was defeated by incumbent Viktor Yushchenko in the same elections five years ago in the so called “Orange Revolution.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko is second with 20,7% of the votes, according to Interfax, Sergei Tigipko is third with 14,9%.

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has received the support of some 6,1% of the respondents in the exit poll.

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=112050

I´m happy with my prediction ...

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is down sharply compared with the 1st round of 2004:

By 3pm local time, 54% had voted in 2004 - today it was 47%.

When the polls closed at 8pm, 75% had voted.

The 2004 run-off had 81% turnout and the new run-off a month later had 77%.

Plus: Turnout was generally higher today in Yanukovich areas, while Tymoshenko and Yushchenko areas had turnout about 5% lower.

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

[Tender Branson]

Some facts about election day:

A woman gave birth to triplets at polling station 84 of constituency 135, maternity hospital seven, where the polling station is located, told Interfax-Ukraine on Sunday.

"At once after polling, one of our women gave birth to two baby girls and one baby boy. Babies and mom feel well," a source in the hospital said.

...

An elderly woman died at one of the polling stations in Kharkiv.

According to a posting on the Web site of the chief department of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine in Kharkiv region, the accident occurred at polling station 73 in the Frunzensky District in Kharkiv.

The police reports that a 71 years old woman felt badly. An ambulance was called, but the woman died before the ambulance arrived.

...

The Voters' Committee of Ukraine has said that the Ukrainian presidential election will be declared legal, despite some irregularities.

The committee said that there were many cases of 'dead souls' on voter lists were registered.

"We revealed many examples of 'dead souls' in voters' lists," the committee's deputy chairman, Vitaliy Telslenko, said at a press conference in Kyiv on Sunday.

He said that before the election, the committee warned on low quality of voter lists.

He said that the lists included voters who died five, eight and even ten years ago. He said that the said cases are registered in all of the regions of Ukraine.

[Tender Branson]

3 Exit polls by Ukraine TV stations:

ICTV TV COMPANY'S EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH –35.06%
TYMOSHENKO – 25.72%
TIGIPKO – 13.41%
YATSENIUK –6.87%
YUSCHENKO – 5.61%

INTER TV CHANNEL EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 36.6%,
TYMOSHENKO – 25.8%
TIGIPKO – 13.5%
YATSENIUK – 6.6%
YUSCHENKO – 5.2%

SAVIK SHUSTER STUDIO EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 34.7%,
TYMOSHENKO – 25.0%
TIGIPKO – 13.2%
YATSENIUK – 7.1%
YUSCHENKO – 5.8%

[Tender Branson]

3 more Exit Polls:

ARGUMENTY I FAKTY EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 34.7%
TYMOSHENKO – 24.8%
TIGIPKO – 11.5%
YATSENIUK – 8.9%
YUSCHENKO – 5.4%

RESEARCH & BRANDING GROUP'S EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 37.66%
TYMOSHENKO – 26.13%
TIGIPKO – 11.64%
YATSENIUK – 7.09%
YUSCHENKO – 5.12%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 31.5%
TYMOSHENKO – 27.2%
TIGIPKO – 13.5%
YATSENIUK –7.8%
YUSCHENKO – 6.0%

[Tender Branson]

Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.

[big bad fab]

Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.

If only it was so simple...

Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

[Hash]

Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

I think Ukraine is far too divided these days to allow anybody to win a mandate of 55% or more. I wouldn't be surprised if Yanukovych won, though. The pro-western experience has been, by far, a failure. And Ukraine seems to be warming up to the idea of throwing out incompetent crooks.

The geography of Tigipko and Yatsenyuk's vote will offer a better answer to the question. The east and the Donetsk basin isn't ready to vote for a westerner, and Galicia isn't ready to vote for a Russian crook.

[jaichind]

With 9.29% of the votes counted
Viktor Yanukovych 39.68%
Yulia Tymoshenko  24.24%
Sergiy Tigipko        11.28%
Arseniy Yatseniuk    6.32%
Viktor Yuschenko     4.35%

[Hash]

The differences in the Cyrillic-Latin translation of Tigipko and Yatsenyuk's names are quite fun, especially the former.

[platypeanArchcow]

...especially the former.

where the difference is between Russian and Ukrainian pronunciation.

[ag]

...especially the former.

where the difference is between Russian and Ukrainian pronunciation.

Yep. And in a few cases also between Ukranian and Russian spelling (though in this case the spelling differences are minor w/ last names - sometimes they are pretty huge, especially w/ first names). You are also likely to see very different names for regions (e.g., Mykolaiv vs. Nikolaev).

[ag]

W/ 37.43% counted it is

Yanukovych 36.93%
Tymoshenko 24.56%
Tihipko 12.82%
Yatseniuk 6.68%
Yushchenko 4.88%
Symonenko 3.69%
Lytvyn 2.45%
everyone else peanuts

Looking at what has reported, I'd say the final result should have Yanukovych slightly under 36% and Tymoshenko slightly over 25%, w/ the difference just a bit more than the 10% that Tymoshenko should be able to gain in the second round. It's going to be a n interesting election again, but, I'd say, Yanukovych wins in the end w/51-52%
 

[Meeker]

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.