Ukraine 2010

[big bad fab]

A woman who changed the colour of her hair only for... "political" reasons ?

Yanukovych will win because if his opponents' divisions.

Isn't Tihipko quite populistic too ?
And when will he disappoints us, like Yulia in the past ?

Really, this country should have been, with Poland, the BIG EU priority since 1989.

But we are too busy with small infights between UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy; too busy with dealing with this great new member, Cyprus, and with this major fail since 1963 (Turkey), to which the EU should have said no very early and then bring in a big cooperation.

[big bad fab]

Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.

If only it was so simple...

Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

[big bad fab]

Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

I think Ukraine is far too divided these days to allow anybody to win a mandate of 55% or more.

Except if the West abstains even more than the East...
We'll see... You know that I like to make bold predictions sometimes, that prove, very often,... wrong !

[big bad fab]

I think there will be much wasted votes in the second round and it will affect more Tymoshenko than Yanukovych.

Isn't the very small result of Symonenko a bit surprising ?
Is he "out of fashion" now or did Tihipko and Yanukovych steal some of his usual votes ?

[big bad fab]

Symonenko got, what he normally gets there, I believe. This is the Commie electorate: it's stable.

Sure, we are no longer in 1999 (22%), but it was still 5% in 2004.
3.5% is even less.