Ukraine 2010

[Tender Branson]

Yanukovych leads final polls before Jan. 17 Ukrainian election

Ukraine's presidential election campaign entered its last two weeks on Saturday with the final opinion polls predicting victory for Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych.

Ukrainian law prohibits the publication of any opinion polls less than 14 days before an election. Voting is due to take place from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Sunday, January 17. Campaigning finishes on the Friday, with voters given the Saturday to consider their choice in an atmosphere of quiet.

The Central Election Committee has registered 18 candidates, including Yanukovych, incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and former Rada speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

Polls predict that no candidate will secure an outright majority in the first round, with Yanukovych expected to garner around 30% to 20% for Tymoshenko.

Surveys show that the Party of Regions leader will go on to beat the prime minister in a runoff due at the start of February.

Yushchenko is expected to receive less than 5% of the first-round vote.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100102/157448150.html

http://www.ukrainianjournal.com/index.php?w=article&id=9709

[Tender Branson]

First round is today:

I`d say Yanukovych wins with about 33%, Tymoshenko gets 22%, Tigipko is third with 15%.

All others will have less than 10%.

[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls:

Viktor Yanukovich, generally known as a pro-Russian candidate, is in the lead in Ukraine’s Presidential Elections taking place Sunday, according to an exit poll carried out by the Russian news agency Interfax.

The poll results show that 36,1% of the Ukrainian voters have backed Yanukovich, who was defeated by incumbent Viktor Yushchenko in the same elections five years ago in the so called “Orange Revolution.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko is second with 20,7% of the votes, according to Interfax, Sergei Tigipko is third with 14,9%.

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has received the support of some 6,1% of the respondents in the exit poll.

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=112050

I´m happy with my prediction ...

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is down sharply compared with the 1st round of 2004:

By 3pm local time, 54% had voted in 2004 - today it was 47%.

When the polls closed at 8pm, 75% had voted.

The 2004 run-off had 81% turnout and the new run-off a month later had 77%.

Plus: Turnout was generally higher today in Yanukovich areas, while Tymoshenko and Yushchenko areas had turnout about 5% lower.

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

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Some facts about election day:

A woman gave birth to triplets at polling station 84 of constituency 135, maternity hospital seven, where the polling station is located, told Interfax-Ukraine on Sunday.

"At once after polling, one of our women gave birth to two baby girls and one baby boy. Babies and mom feel well," a source in the hospital said.

...

An elderly woman died at one of the polling stations in Kharkiv.

According to a posting on the Web site of the chief department of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine in Kharkiv region, the accident occurred at polling station 73 in the Frunzensky District in Kharkiv.

The police reports that a 71 years old woman felt badly. An ambulance was called, but the woman died before the ambulance arrived.

...

The Voters' Committee of Ukraine has said that the Ukrainian presidential election will be declared legal, despite some irregularities.

The committee said that there were many cases of 'dead souls' on voter lists were registered.

"We revealed many examples of 'dead souls' in voters' lists," the committee's deputy chairman, Vitaliy Telslenko, said at a press conference in Kyiv on Sunday.

He said that before the election, the committee warned on low quality of voter lists.

He said that the lists included voters who died five, eight and even ten years ago. He said that the said cases are registered in all of the regions of Ukraine.

[Tender Branson]

3 Exit polls by Ukraine TV stations:

ICTV TV COMPANY'S EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH –35.06%
TYMOSHENKO – 25.72%
TIGIPKO – 13.41%
YATSENIUK –6.87%
YUSCHENKO – 5.61%

INTER TV CHANNEL EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 36.6%,
TYMOSHENKO – 25.8%
TIGIPKO – 13.5%
YATSENIUK – 6.6%
YUSCHENKO – 5.2%

SAVIK SHUSTER STUDIO EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 34.7%,
TYMOSHENKO – 25.0%
TIGIPKO – 13.2%
YATSENIUK – 7.1%
YUSCHENKO – 5.8%

[Tender Branson]

3 more Exit Polls:

ARGUMENTY I FAKTY EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 34.7%
TYMOSHENKO – 24.8%
TIGIPKO – 11.5%
YATSENIUK – 8.9%
YUSCHENKO – 5.4%

RESEARCH & BRANDING GROUP'S EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 37.66%
TYMOSHENKO – 26.13%
TIGIPKO – 11.64%
YATSENIUK – 7.09%
YUSCHENKO – 5.12%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 31.5%
TYMOSHENKO – 27.2%
TIGIPKO – 13.5%
YATSENIUK –7.8%
YUSCHENKO – 6.0%

[Tender Branson]

Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.

[Tender Branson]

With 75% of the votes counted:

Viktor Yanukovych: 35.96%
Yulia Tymoshenko: 24.68%
Sergiy Tigipko: 13.00%
Arseniy Yatseniuk: 6.96%
Viktor Yuschenko: 5.24%

Turnout: 67%

[Tender Branson]

Kyiv, January 18 (Interfax-Ukraine) – European Parliament observers have recorded no serious violations in the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine, and said the polls were democratic and open, European Parliament observer Rebecca Harms said in an interview with Germany's international broadcaster Deutsche Welle on Monday.

"I have no doubt to think that manipulations were orchestrated in the presidential election," she said.

Harms pointed to the good organization of work by polling stations in Kyiv, which she had visited. She said that there were also no problems with voting at home.

"What I've observed is most likely the evidence of fair and transparent elections. The vote has been prepared very well here in Kyiv," Harms said.

She also said that there had also been no complaints from other European Parliament observers.

"It was unexpected that such a great number of Georgian observers wanted to monitor the election. No country sends so many observers. I have certain doubt. In my opinion, this story is a bit exaggerated, and I wouldn't attach such significance to it," she said.

She said that if all international observers confirm that the election was democratic, then all presidential candidates should recognize the election returns so that a second round runoff is also held in line with the "rules of the game."

Speaking about exit poll results, Harms said that they are evidence of the disillusionment of voters who have pinned high hopes on Viktor Yuschenko five years ago.

"People are very disappointed with Viktor Yuschenko and with Yuschenko's and Tymoshenko's ability to cooperate. If the former 'orange' voters voted for Yanukovych or [Sergiy] Tigipko, or other candidates, then I think that this is due to the fact that the leaders of the 'orange' camp have failed to give confidence to the people," she said.

[Tender Branson]

Results of the 1st round by oblast (region):



Red: Yanukovych
Green: Tymoshenko

[Tender Branson]

Where be results by oblast again?

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp313pt001f01=700.html

I guess this will also be the map of the run-off, which would be identical to 2004.

Maybe Yanukovych has a very slight chance to flip Kirovohrad, but that's it.

Zakarpat is an interesting place as well, Yuschenko got "only" 67% there in 2004, in a region that was normally 90%+ for him and where Russians account for only 2% of the population.

Any reason why the Ukrainians there vote for Yanukovych by a bigger margin than elsewhere in the west ?

[Tender Branson]

Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.

There`s new polling data from the Exit Poll about who these 1st round voters will back in the 2nd:

The gap between presidential candidates Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko will close significantly in the second round of the presidential election on February 7, and they may each have a fifty-fifty chance of winning the run-off vote, according to the pollsters of the Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute of Social Studies.

"A greater part of the electorate who supported other candidates in the first round are, to some extent, inclined to support Tymoshenko. If the ballot were held today, around 50-51% would have voted for Yanukovych, and some 45-46% for Tymoshenko," Chair of the Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute of Social Studies Olha Balakireva said at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.

She said that the "issue could also concern a fifty-fifty option." She said that those who had not supported Tymoshenko and Yanukovych would most likely vote for "the lesser evil."

"This will most likely be the vote 'against,' [someone] rather than a vote 'for,' [someone]" Balakireva said.

She also said that there are certain voters who will go to the polls and will support neither Yanukovych nor Tymoshenko.

Balakireva said that according to a survey, 29% of Sergiy Tigipko's supporters are ready to vote for Tymoshenko in the second round of the election, and 37% for Yanukovych. As for Arseniy Yatseniuk's supporters, 45% of them are ready to vote for Tymoshenko and 18% for Yanukovych, while 52% of Viktor Yuschenko's supporters are more inclined to vote for Tymoshenko, and 8% for Yanukovych, she said.

She also said that a portion of the voters remained undecided. The margin of error is 2.2%.

The Choice 2010 survey was held at 402 polling stations on election day in order to receive a high level of data accuracy. Voters were surveyed immediately after they left polling stations. A total of 804 interviewers questioned 17,512 voters who casted their ballots. Twenty-four percent of voters declined to participate in the survey.

http://www.citylife.donetsk.ua/news/show/10303

[Tender Branson]

Presidential runoff gets underway in Ukraine

The second round of the fifth presidential election got underway in Ukraine on Sunday, February 7.

The voters are to decide who will head the state for the next five years - Leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych or incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

The winning candidate is the one that gains a simple majority of the vote.

Polling stations opened at 0800, and will remain open until 2000.

In Ukraine, over 33,000 polling stations have been set up and will be run by 225 district election commissions. A total of 113 polling stations have been formed in foreign countries.

A total of 3,780 official foreign observers will monitor the February 7 election.

Observers of the European Parliament, the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the Commonwealth of Independent States (IPA CIS), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have recorded no serious violations in the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine held on January 17, and said the polls were democratic and open.

Eighteen presidential candidates were battling for the country's top office in the first round of the election. Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych garnered 35.32% of the vote (8,686,642 votes) and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko came second, capturing 25.05% of the vote (6,159,810 votes), according to the Central Election Commission's official result of the January 17 presidential election in Ukraine.

Sergiy Tigipko finished third with 13.05% (3,211,198) of the vote. A total of 2.2% (542,819) of voters voted for none of the 18 candidates.

A total of 36,968,041 people were included on the voting lists.

The number of voters who participated in the election was 24,588,268, and the number of ballots declared invalid was 450,765.

At the same time, European parliamentarians expressed concern on February 4 over last minute changes in the Ukrainian election laws. Two members of the European Parliament, Elmar Brok (European People's Party) and Charles Tannock (European Conservatives and Reformists) urged EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton to react and express protest because this law changes the election and election monitoring regulations.

EU High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton called on Ukraine's presidential candidates to ensure that the will of the people can once more be expressed at the polls on February 7.

On February 3, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a package of amendments to the law on presidential election, excluding a requirement that there be a quorum for election commissions. The amendments drop the requirement that a session of an electoral commission shall be regarded valid, if no less than two thirds of its members are present. They also imply certain changes in the procedure of forming the commissions. Elections commissions of higher levels shall be allowed to make decisions belonging to the terms of reference of a commissioner of a lower tier, should the lower tier commission be inactive. On polling day such matters shall be dealt with without delay.

On February 4, the amended election law was enacted by outgoing President Viktor Yuschenko.

The law came into force on February 5 and on the same day the parliamentary faction of the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) filed a plea with the Constitutional Court of Ukraine to declare unconstitutional the amendments to the presidential election law.

The results of seven nationwide exit polls are expected to be released just after the polling stations close at 2000.

The Central Election Commission is to release the official results of the first round of voting within ten days, but no later than the third day after the receipt of all election protocols from district election commissions.

The newly elected president should assume office no later than 30 days after the official publication of the final election results.

http://www.interfax.com.ua/eng/pr2010/287417778

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By 11.00 am, turnout was about 3 times higher in eastern Yanukovych areas like Luhansk and Donetsk (22%) than in western Tymoshenko areas like Transcarpathia and Rivne (6%).

[Tender Branson]

By 11.00 am, turnout was about 3 times higher in eastern Yanukovych areas like Luhansk and Donetsk (22%) than in western Tymoshenko areas like Transcarpathia and Rivne (6%).

This has moderated a bit now, as most electoral districts have reported their 11 am numbers:

Still, Transcarpathia has the lowest turnout at 9.4%, followed by Ivano-Frankivsk at 11.7% and the capital Kiev at 12.0%.

The highest turnout is in Luhansk at 24.3%, followed by Donezk at 22.8% and Mykolajiw at 20.7%.

The national rate was 17.5%, about 0.5% higher than in round 1.

[Tender Branson]

Although all of Ukraine is in the same time zone (EET, two hours ahead of GMT, one hour ahead of CMT. Seven hours ahead of Forum Time for you Amayricans) I can't help but wonder if the considerable difference in de facto time (you know, sun rising/setting hours) impacts that somewhat.

This is probably balanced by the temperatures ...

In Donezk for example it has -15°C today, while in Lviv it has only -5°C ...

[Tender Branson]

Overall turnout in Ukraine at 3pm was 49.9%, up by 2.3% compared with the first round.

Total turnout is now likely to be around 70% for the day.

Highest 3pm turnout: Donetsk (57.4%), Luhansk (57.1%), Zaporizhia (52.8%)

Lowest 3pm turnout: Transcarpathia (35.3%), Chernivtsi (44.5%), Kiev (44.9%)

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6 Exit Polls:

Yanukovych: 49-50%
Tymoshenko: 44-46%

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Results by Oblast (Region):



Yanukovych: Blue
Tymoshenko: Green

[Tender Branson]

With 99.9% of the votes counted and with the rest mainly from Yanukovych areas, the final results will be:

Yanukovych: 49.0% (12.5 Mio. votes)
Tymoshenko: 45.4% (11.6 Mio. votes)
Against both: 4.4%
Invalid: 1.2%

Turnout: 69%

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Map by district: