Brazil General Discussion

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

That's something I'm wondering about for a while now:

How is the political situation in Brazil today?

As far as I can remember Lula finishes in 2010, who to succeed him? How is the PT today? More to the right? More to the left? How is Chavism in the PT? How is Brazilian Left generally speaking? How is opposition? Who would have the more chances to win?

If someone has elements about it...

EDIT: This thread is turned in a General Discussion Thread. You're welcome to post things about Brazil into it.

[Hash]

Dilma Rousseff, Lula's chief of staff is the PT candidate against the PSDB's 2002 candidate and Governor of Sao Paulo, José Serra. Serra is ahead in all polls for the first round, but the PT is closing the gap quickly. However, the left is actually divided between Rousseff, who now leads the field on the left; former Ceara Governor Ciro Gomes of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB: a member of the governing coalition) and former PT environment minister Marina Silva for the Greenies. Silva is pretty cool, partly because she's from Acre, which is a pretty damn cool state.

I don't know Serra much, but he's probably superior to Alckmin who was as charismatic as a wet pizza. Rousseff seems pretty moderate, and the PT remains overall pretty moderate despite appearances.

Heloísa Helena, who ran in 2006 to Lula's left and got 7%, may run again supported by various hard-left parties or ally with the Greenies.

Brazilian politics since 1989 have been confusing as hell, with a million mis-named parties or a million parties with roughly the same name (the Workers' Party, the Brazilian Workers' Party or the Democratic Workers' Party). It is best understood in terms in personalities or coalitions.

I miss Vargas. Things were simple then.

[Хahar 🤔]

Agree with that post.

Especially the parts about Acre and Vargas.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Thank you Gaël, I expected you could be the one who could give me answers here.

Well, seems that the followers, if they come from PT, wouldn't be and do that much different from what Lula was and did. I especially wondered about how was the Chavism in this country, wouldn't seem that strong then.

Also, I'm a bit surprised to see opposition leading in polls, especially a matter of time after 'Lula's' victory at IOC, but Brazil have surely other issues and if you say the gap is not that big.

Would you or anyone else know more about Brazilian issues that can be important for this election?

[Hash]

Also, I'm a bit surprised to see opposition leading in polls, especially a matter of time after 'Lula's' victory at IOC, but Brazil have surely other issues and if you say the gap is not that big.

Lula is wildly popular, but Rousseff is not because she's made many enemies (she's rather strong-handed) and she's had her share of scandals (and many have affected her instead of Lula). She also has poor relations with many within her own coalition, such as Silva.

Lula would probably win a third term as easily as in 2006 if he ran for re-election, especially against the poor field on the right (Serra is nothing exceptional).

Would you or anyone else know more about Brazilian issues that can be important for this election?

I would guess corruption, criminality, poverty, foreign policy and the Olympics would be issues.

[Hash]

New poll: 38-15 for Serra in the first round

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34648/serra_maintains_significant_lead_in_brazil

[big bad fab]

Maybe the big problem for Dilma, who is not very... charismatic, is that she might be outsided as soon as the first round.

If she don't succeed to make it to the run-off, Lulism will de splitted and dead and Serra will win.
If Dilma makes it to the run-off, with a bigh push by Lula, she'll be able to overcome all her weakenesses.

[Hash]

Maybe the big problem for Dilma, who is not very... charismatic, is that she might be outsided as soon as the first round.

If she don't succeed to make it to the run-off, Lulism will de splitted and dead and Serra will win.
If Dilma makes it to the run-off, with a bigh push by Lula, she'll be able to overcome all her weakenesses.

I doubt that. She seems to be solidifying in polls, and her rivals on the left are very poor. Gomes has little base, imo, outside Ceara; and neither Helena or Silva will come close to the runoff. Dilma will make the runoff rather easily.

I'm not sure if Dilma will be able to overcome all her weaknesses in the runoff, she has lots of enemies on the left (Silva and the PV are the biggest I know of) and she's no Lula.

[big bad fab]

I know, it's The Economist and it's their political mantra for almost 170 years, but, at least, it's a good article to discuss:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hash]

I was about to post that, btw.

It's rather biased and inaccurate. Cardoso and Collor were both rather right-wing economically, but pure neo-liberals would obviously find beef with them rather easily. But in the context of Brazil and the continent, which is very statist, they're the best they could hope for within an electoral democracy.

The military regime wasn't a very neo-liberal one, the ARENA-PDS being very clientelistic parties in the Nordeste. Only Castello Branco and Roberto Campos could be considered neo-liberals. The 1964 coup wasn't a neo-liberal American-poodling coup as much as it's made out to be, the main catalyst to the coup was military and middle-class fear that Goulart would become a left-wing Peronist dictator (and Goulart, frankly, did little to allay their fears) and also a reactionary reaction from the wealthy landowners who were about to be expropriated, or so they feared, by Goulart.

lol at the Economist thinking of the PFL as a neo-liberal party. It was founded as a moderate wing of the military regime's part(ies) and their roots were in the Nordeste, which was always the most economically backwards area and the only major area of the country where coronelismo-style politics dominated for a long time. A party, of whatever colour, based in the Nordeste cannot be neo-liberal, since that's the equivalent of Neuilly being a PC stronghold.

And Brazil isn't socially liberal.

[big bad fab]

But in the context of Brazil and the continent, which is very statist, they're the best they could hope for within an electoral democracy.

TBH, that's what The Economist said.

lol at the Economist thinking of the PFL as a neo-liberal party.
Oh yes !

And Brazil isn't socially liberal.
You're so right ! That's the way The Economist works sometimes (often ?): to take some superficial examples (at least 2, in order to seem more "articulate") and to write that's a proof of something...
In this case, of course there is some trends towards social liberalness, but it'd be as if one writes India is among the most high-tech countries.
Even if you stick to The Economiqt's sentence "among the most socially liberal" in Latin America, it's untrue.

[Hash]

Turning this into a general discussion thread before it's reasonable to open a Brazil 2010 thread in the IE board.

Dilma closes the gap slowly with Serra in CNT poll, Lula has 82% approval

http://www.cnt.org.br/portal/img/arquivos/Relatorio%20Cruzamentos.pdf

Jose Serra 33.2%
Dilma Rousseff 27.8%
Ciro Gomes 11.9%
Marina Silva 6.8%
None/white 10.5%
Undecided 9.9%

The demographic breakdowns of Lula's approval and the 2010 voting intentions indicate that the 2006 patterns, which, imo, were the first patterns of 'modern' socio-electoral geography in Brazil, are holding. The breakdown of the 2010 vote is now quite predictable within regions, income groups and so forth... predictable using 'western-European' concepts of socio-electoral demographics.

If Ciro isn't candidate, the vote is Serra 40.7, Dilma 28.5, Marina 9.5.

In the runoff between Serra and Dilma, Serra has 44% against 37.1% for Dilma.

Have a look at the PDF file of the poll, it's very interesting.

[big bad fab]

Very interesting, indeed.

No big surprises in geography, incomes, sex, scholarship.

But what surprises me is the big support for Serra among the youngest !

[Hash]

Since this is becoming a general discussion thread on my favourite topic, I'll exploit it.

Here's an old article I read in the Economist and which also appeared in Le Figaro quite a bit of time ago, but I feel it's an interesting case study of the realities in governing Brazil democratically and in a non-demagogic way.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which sums up well two realities and two issues which are stark realities in Brazilian politics.
1. The military has little shame over the military government. Firstly, it is true that compared to madman governments in Argentina or Chile, it was remarkably stale. There was torture of opponents, arbitrary arrests and human rights violations; but nothing on a large scale. Secondly, the military was sent packing with their full acquiescence. There was no revolution, little mass protest movements directly against the regime (except for Direta ja, which was more a protest against a specific issue) or that kind of stuff. Geisel and Figueiredo freed up the regime slowly but surely, and they took care of sidelining the Medici-type linha dura guys. I suppose the military has relatively little to be ashamed about. In addition, the military in Brazil has, since 1889 or so, seen itself as the new holder of the so-called poder moderador or moderating power. It sees itself as a neutral jury above day-to-day politics, and its 1964 coup was, to their eyes, just that, to moderate the power which they saw to be radicalizing quickly.

Anti-communist coup is the official catchphrase used, and it was the phrase used to please Washington. The truth is, of course, that 1964 was a coup of conservative interests scared at Goulart's reforms which would have revolutionized the basis of Brazilian society (ending or severely diminishing the latifundios and the remaining coronelismo system in the Nordeste, opening up the franchise to the illiterate plurality or majority in 1964, giving enlisted men the vote and trampling over the established middle-class order mixed in with Getulista corporatism and all that). They were also scared at the emerging power of the radicals (and a lot of that scare was unfounded since the radicals were in reality weak and divided) such as Brizola, the progressive Catholics, radical student organizations and all that stuff. And Goulart was foolish enough to be convinced by Brizola that his political success laid in allying with the radical elements.

2. Not really related to this, but the role of the PMDB - Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement is also interesting. Originally the 'official' party of the opposition during the military, the PMDB after the relaxation in the 80s became a coalition of old regional barons, interests and personalities. The PMDB's support is crucial for a government, and Collor's lack of major PMDB support in 1992 probably doomed him from the start of the scandal. Any government needs the PMDB. Lula in 1980, the radical bearded strike-leader hated Sarney and the PMDB, but the Lula of 2010 who's currently in power sees that the support of the PMDB for Rousseff is crucial for her winning and so forth. Which explains why Lula has been steadfast in his defense of Sarney during the Sarney scandal in the summer.

[Hash]

Ignoring the ignorant troll; more on the 2010 campaign.

Although, to my knowledge, there are no official candidates yet (but most don't hide the fact that they're running), there's already talk about the Vice Presidential nominations.

The Brazilian VP is even less of a big deal in campaigns than in the US, and they do nothing at all. Most VPs are relatively useless and unknown, except those that acceded to the Presidency.

Lula's VP since 2002 is José Alencar. He was a member of a small right-wing party connected with the evangelical movements - the Liberal Party (but is now in another evangelical-connected party, the PRB, which isn't related to the PL's new incarnation as PR), and he was a good choice in 2002 to show Lula's moderate image and appeal to evangelicals in the first round because another evangelical-endorsed candidate, Anthony Garotinho (a controversial erratic populist, former Governor of RJ until 2002 and who might run against for Governor of RJ in 2010).

Lula apparently wants Dilma's running mate to be Henrique Meirelles, the President (for all of Lula's term) of the Central Bank. He's a rather neoliberal economist, and he was elected in 2002 as a PSDB deputy for Goias (he later left the PSDB and recently joined the PMDB). He might also run for Governor of Goias. However, a lot in the PMDB, including Sarney (Lula's man in the PMDB) want the Paulista President of the Chamber, Michel Temer to be Dilma's VP as it would shore up support for her within the party. Temer is an older and more established (also read; corrupt) member of the PMDB than Meirelles, historically non-partisan (who only joined the PMDB to run in an election in 2010, since independents can't run for office in Brazil).

Veja, the top magazine in Brazil, also said that Lula assured Sarney that the PT would support Roseana Sarney for re-election as Governor of Maranhao (the Sarney family fiefdom).

[big bad fab]

Ignoring the ignorant troll; more on the 2010 campaign.

Although, to my knowledge, there are no official candidates yet (but most don't hide the fact that they're running), there's already talk about the Vice Presidential nominations.

The Brazilian VP is even less of a big deal in campaigns than in the US, and they do nothing at all. Most VPs are relatively useless and unknown, except those that acceded to the Presidency.

Lula's VP since 2002 is José Alencar. He was a member of a small right-wing party connected with the evangelical movements - the Liberal Party (but is now in another evangelical-connected party, the PRB, which isn't related to the PL's new incarnation as PR), and he was a good choice in 2002 to show Lula's moderate image and appeal to evangelicals in the first round because another evangelical-endorsed candidate, Anthony Garotinho (a controversial erratic populist, former Governor of RJ until 2002 and who might run against for Governor of RJ in 2010).

Lula apparently wants Dilma's running mate to be Henrique Meirelles, the President (for all of Lula's term) of the Central Bank. He's a rather neoliberal economist, and he was elected in 2002 as a PSDB deputy for Goias (he later left the PSDB and recently joined the PMDB). He might also run for Governor of Goias. However, a lot in the PMDB, including Sarney (Lula's man in the PMDB) want the Paulista President of the Chamber, Michel Temer to be Dilma's VP as it would shore up support for her within the party. Temer is an older and more established (also read; corrupt) member of the PMDB than Meirelles, historically non-partisan (who only joined the PMDB to run in an election in 2010, since independents can't run for office in Brazil).

Veja, the top magazine in Brazil, also said that Lula assured Sarney that the PT would support Roseana Sarney for re-election as Governor of Maranhao (the Sarney family fiefdom).

Interesting. No buzz about José Serra's possible picks ?

[Hash]

Ignoring the ignorant troll; more on the 2010 campaign.

Although, to my knowledge, there are no official candidates yet (but most don't hide the fact that they're running), there's already talk about the Vice Presidential nominations.

The Brazilian VP is even less of a big deal in campaigns than in the US, and they do nothing at all. Most VPs are relatively useless and unknown, except those that acceded to the Presidency.

Lula's VP since 2002 is José Alencar. He was a member of a small right-wing party connected with the evangelical movements - the Liberal Party (but is now in another evangelical-connected party, the PRB, which isn't related to the PL's new incarnation as PR), and he was a good choice in 2002 to show Lula's moderate image and appeal to evangelicals in the first round because another evangelical-endorsed candidate, Anthony Garotinho (a controversial erratic populist, former Governor of RJ until 2002 and who might run against for Governor of RJ in 2010).

Lula apparently wants Dilma's running mate to be Henrique Meirelles, the President (for all of Lula's term) of the Central Bank. He's a rather neoliberal economist, and he was elected in 2002 as a PSDB deputy for Goias (he later left the PSDB and recently joined the PMDB). He might also run for Governor of Goias. However, a lot in the PMDB, including Sarney (Lula's man in the PMDB) want the Paulista President of the Chamber, Michel Temer to be Dilma's VP as it would shore up support for her within the party. Temer is an older and more established (also read; corrupt) member of the PMDB than Meirelles, historically non-partisan (who only joined the PMDB to run in an election in 2010, since independents can't run for office in Brazil).

Veja, the top magazine in Brazil, also said that Lula assured Sarney that the PT would support Roseana Sarney for re-election as Governor of Maranhao (the Sarney family fiefdom).

Interesting. No buzz about José Serra's possible picks ?

Nothing yet, but undoubtedly from the PFL (uh, 'Democrats', sorry) like all PSDB running-mates since 1994 (afaik).

[Hash]

A look at the main 2010 races for Governor

Ceara: Incumbent Governor Cid Gomes (PSB), the brother of Ciro, is quite popular and is favoured to win re-election easily. PSDB Senator Tasso Jereissati, and former Governor of the state, could run but polls show him far behind Cid.

Pernambuco: Incumbent Governor Eduardo Campos (PSB) has a crushing lead on all major high-profile opponents according to polls. He should win re-election by the first round, possibly with 60%+

Bahia: The Petista Jaques Wagner ended 16 years of Pefelista rule in 2006 when he defeated Governor Paulo Souto. According to polls, he has a large lead over Paulo Souto (44-29 for Vox Populi) and other potential opponents such as PMDB cabinet minister Geddel Vieira. Notably, Wagner also crushes the son of the old Bahianese baron of the PFL, Antônio Carlos Magalhães.

Rio de Janeiro: Governor Sérgio Cabral (PMDB) is not overwhelmingly popular since he spends most of his time on beaches abroad, but his main opponents according to polls are trailing. Potential opponents include state deputy Wagner Montes (PDT), a popular journalist and TV host as well as former Governor Anthony Garotinho (see above post), former Rio Mayor César Maia (DEM) and the (right-leaning) Green Fernando Gabeira who narrowly lost the Rio mayorship to Paes in 2008. According to Vox Populi, Cabral leads Montes 32-24 with 18% for Garotinho and 14% for Gabeira. He leads Garotinho by a larger margin. Thank God that loon Garotinho won't get near the Governors' Palace anymore.

Minas Gerais: The extremely popular incumbent PSDB Governor Aécio Neves is term-limited. Possible candidates include PMDB Communications Minister Hélio Costa, the popular former PT Mayor of Belo Horizonte Fernando Pimentel and PT cabinet minister Patrus Ananias. The incumbent PSDB Vice Governor, Antonio Anastasia is likely to run as well, but he trails in polls. Costa leads both petistas, as well as Anastasia. If Costa does not run (he might run for Senate in a very crowded field/more later), both petistas leads Anastasia.

Sao Paulo: The PSDB's unlucky 2006 presidential candidate, Geraldo Alckmin, is running to succeed Serra as Paulista Governor. He is likely to win by a huge margin by the first round with the current crop of likely opponents, which is now down to the hated old corrupt right-winger/fascist Paulo Maluf. Ciro Gomes was rumoured to be considering a run here instead of President, but in recent days he told the PT to go fuck themselves and that he's only running for President.

Paraná: PMDB incumbent Roberto Requião is term limited. The potential candidates include Curitiba Mayor Beto Richa (PSDB), Senator Osmar Dias (PDT - narrowly defeated in 2006 for Governor) and Senator Álvaro Dias (PSDB). According to Datafolha, Richa leads Osmar Dias 40-38, but Osmar Dias crushes Alvaro Dias 42-28.

Santa Catarina: PMDB incumbent  Luiz Henrique da Silveira is term limited. Former Mayor of Florianópolis Ângela Amin (PP) leads DEM Senator João Raimundo Colombo by varying margins depending on the candidates, with the PT candidate Ideli Salvatti trailing rather far behind.

Rio Grande do Sul: In 2006, PSDB candidate Yeda Crusius defeated PT candidate Olivio Dutra (cabinet minister, and historical figure of the PT) by a narrow margin in the runoff after both defeated PMDB incumbent Germanno Rigotto. Crusius has been embroiled in scandals and is the most unpopular Governor in Brazil (maybe shared with DF Governor Arruda now). Polling seems to indicate a close race between PT Justice Minister and former Mayor of Porto Alegre Tarso Genro and the current Mayor of Porto Alegre, José Fogaça (PMDB, ex-PPS). Crusius is polling around 5-7%, which is roughly her approval rating.

DF: As has been hinted by Fabien's article from The Economist, the incumbent Governor of the DF, José Roberto Arruda, elected in 2006 for the PFL, is currently involved in the so-called 'Mensalao do DF' or 'Mensalao do DEM' scandal. The DEMs expelled him, which makes him an Independent (and thus unable to run for reelection). The early favourite seems to be  Joaquim Roriz (PSC, ex-PMDB), who leads former PT minister Agnelo Queiroz and former PT Governor Cristovam Buarque (now PDT, and presidential candidate in 2006).

I'll post more on the Senate races in Minas Gerais tomorrow (ftr, in 2010, two Senators from each state, elected in 2002, are up for re-election).

[Hash]

I had a nice talk with Benoit about this thread via PM, and he liked my idea of me creating a basic 'phonebook' of the major players in (usually federal) Brazilian politics for 2010... so here goes.

Lula is, of course, excluded, since, despite his major role, you all know him well now.

The Government Benches

A general note: Being a candidate for 'The Government' gets you the Lula seal of approval, which is a big deal in a country where nearly 30% of voters will vote for Lula's candidate no matter what (and an additional 30% will probably do so as well, depending on his candidate).

Dilma Rousseff: 62-year old, born in a well-off middle class family (of Bulgarian origin) in Minas Gerais but became a middle-class young guerrilla who was arrested and allegedly tortured by DOPS (Brazil's DINA, basically). She was actually a member of Brizola's PDT, and she lost most elections in Porto Alegre (where she settled after being released from prison) to the PT, and only joined the PT in 2000. Was Minister of Energy in Lula's cabinet until the mensalao scandal, when she saved Lula from the depths of impeachment and became his Chief of Staff, which is a cabinet-level position in Brazil. She is efficient, and works hard but lacks charisma and her basic rhetoric consists of giving credit to Lula for everything. She's very close to Lula nowadays, being effectively her right-hand woman.

José Alencar: 78-year old incumbent Vice President from Minas Gerais. He's a self-made billionaire, being born into a poor (but not dirt poor) family and working his way up to become a billionaire. As has been said before, he's right-wing on economics and an evangelical, which are the main reasons he was Lula's running-mate in 2002. Formerly member of the small right-evangelical Liberal Party, he's now in the similarly tiny right-evangelical PRB. Has struggled with health problems, but he is likely to run for office in Minas Gerais in 2010. A lot want him to run for Governor of Minas Gerais, his candidacy could be a good compromise amenable to all 3 pro-Lula contenders (see above: Costa-PMDB, Pimentel-PT, Ananias-PT). He could also run for Senate.

José Sarney: 79-year old, former President (1985-1990). A member of the wealthy pro-military oligarchy in the state of Maranhão, he was the pro-military Governor but he was the candidate imposed upon Neves by the military dissidents who didn't support Maluf in the 1985 election (indirect). He's a member of the PMDB, but he effectively controls the PFL-DEMs and Greens in the state of Maranhão (his daughter is the current PMDB ex-PFL Governor of Maranhão and his son is a major leader of the PV). Current President of the Senate (though representing the small state of Amapá) and the unofficial leader of the pro-Lula wing of the PMDB. Has been involved in a political patronage/corruption scandal (he's obviously very corrupt since he basically owns Maranhão), but Lula has defended him since Lula knows he needs the PMDB.

Michel Temer: 69-year old incumbent President of the Chamber of Deputies (a very influential post, which also has major perks financially and personally) and member of the PMDB (pro-Lula). The PMDB's favourite for the spot of Vice President (the PMDB seems assured to have one of its stalwarts as running mate for Dilma), though he's been involved in corruption scandals recently (shock as the President of the Chamber is a crook!)

Henrique Meirelles: 64-year old incumbent President of the Central Bank of Brazil. Mentioned earlier, he's basically a former high-ranking leader of major banks in Boston and a rather neoliberal economist. Originally elected as PSDB Senator from Goias, he was named by Lula to the Central Bank in 2003 and has been there since. He's the other big name mentioned for the VP slot. Now member of the PMDB (duh).

Sérgio Cabral: 47-year old PMDB Governor of Rio since 2006. Slightly corrupt and controversial, he's also known for spending most of his time abroad on beaches. Recently, he's gotten into a spat with Dilma and Lula after Dilma allegedly had a private talk with his main rival in the state (and major rival for 2010), fmr. Governor Anthony Garotinho, mentioned below.

The Right Opposition

José Serra: 67-year old, born in a middle-class family of Italian immigrants in SP. He was elected President of the UNE (a left-wing student union) with Communist support in 1962 and was a strong supporter of Goulart up till the coup. Exiled abroad (Chile, Panama and US - where he got a doctorate in economics) until 1978. Founding member of the PSDB in 1988, he was Cardoso's popular Minister of Health between 1998 and 2002, and was the PSDB candidate in 2002 losing to Lula badly. Elected Mayor of SP in 2004, he was elected Governor of SP in 2006 and has been known to favour slightly neoliberal policies, such as privatizations, tax reform, civil servant cuts, but still favours some state intervention. His foreign policy contrasts significantly with Lula-Dilma's.

Aécio Neves: 49-year old incumbent (and term-limited) PSDB Governor of Minas Gerais. Grandson of Tancredo Neves, the President who died before taking office. He served between 1986 and 2002 as federal deputy, and between 2001 and 2002 served as President of the Chamber of Deputies and was one of the few such holders of that office who wasn't a crook. As Governor, he implemented a very successful 'Management Shock' policy (streamlining government spending, reducing government size) to reduce the state's huge debt. The major success of this program makes him the most popular Governor in Brazil. He dropped his presidential bid and is considered a possible running-mate for Serra, although he's personally insisted he will run for Senate. Some say he isn't entirely out of the running to be Serra's Veep, which would be a good move for Serra since it would assure him the support of Brazil's 2nd state (after SP, which Serra will win anyway) and balance out Dilma's northeastern strength.

Tasso Jereissati: 61-year old PSDB Senator for Ceará (up for re-election in 2011). A former businessman, he served as a successful Governor of Ceará between 1987 and 1991 and again between 1995 and 2002. He is considered a potential running mate for Serra if Aecio doesn't want it, and as mentioned above, he might run for Governor (though he would lose to Cid Gomes, the second most popular Brazilian governor).

Geraldo Alckmin 57-year old former PSDB Governor of Sao Paulo (2001-2006) and current state Secretary of Development under Serra. He was the Vice Governor of the state between 1994 under PSDB Governor Mário Covas and became Governor after Covas died in 2001. He lost to Lula in 2006, and lost in the first round of the 2008 mayoral election in SP. He seems to be the favourite for Governor of SP again in 2010. Famously uncharismatic.

The Mavericks

Ciro Gomes: 52-year old former Governor of Ceará (1991-1994), generally successful but not that great. Originally a member of the pro-military ARENA (he started out as a right-winger, and he maintains his appeal to the right), he joined the PMDB before joining the PSDB and later joining the PPS (post-communist party, now aligned with the PSDB-PFL). He ran for President in 1998 and 2002, winning 11% in 1998 and 12% in 2002. After the PPS left the Lula coalition, he joined the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), mostly to have a party label and because they probably bribed him to save the party (a sinking ship). Served as Lula's Minister of National Integration 2003-2005. Married to an actress, Patrícia Pillar. He is known to have anger management problems and has made sexist remarks. Seems to have his mind set on running for President, and not at all for Governor of SP (where he was born, and where the PT wants him).

Marina Silva: 51-year old environmentalist and incumbent Green Senator for Acre. Born into a family of rubber tappers (rubber remains important in the Amazon), she joined the PT when it was founded, and was under the wing of the historical figure of the PT in Acre, Chico Mendes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chico_Mendes). She was Lula's Environment Minister until 2008, at which point she resigned claiming her policies did not receive due support. Notably, she clashed with state government and Dilma (then Minister of Energy and Mines). She only joined the PV in 2009. Within the PV, she seems to remain in the pro-Lula line while also claiming she's neither right nor left. The other major wing is led by Fernando Gabeira in RJ, he supports an alliance with the PSDB-PFL and will probably run for Governor of RJ as the right's candidate.

Heloísa Helena 47-year old. Former PT Senator for Alagoas (a very poor northeastern state) who left the PT in 2004 protesting Lula's centrist/centre-left style and founded the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) in 2004. She won 7% in the 2006 election. Will not run again in 2010, instead will probably vie for her old Senate seat. During the mensalao, the PSOL was really the only party to consistently criticize the government strongly, because the PSDB-PFL knew that they too did the same things (and still do - see the scandal in Brasilia DF)...

[Hash]

addendum to my last post

Belongs in the Cuckoo Asylum

Anthony Garotinho: 50-year old former PDT PSB PMDB Governor of Rio (1999-2002). He was a populist and media-loving Governor of Rio for Leonel Brizola's PDT (he joined the PSB in 2002) before running for President in 2002 (for the PSB) winning 18% of the vote. His wife served as Governor after him, between 2003 and 2007, during which time he joined the PMDB to get funds for the Mrs. He's a evangelical born-again. And since I can't do it better than Wikipedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The guy is mentally unstable, but he is likely to run for Governor in 2010 against Cabral. As said above, he apparently met Dilma and the PT is looking to support him. Cabral wants to convince them that he's unelectable (true) and that he's the best choice for them.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Thank you Gaël, quite interesting.

Would still be better with photos, at least for the main ones.

Also, if you would have the same kind of things with the main parties (and their logos), would be interested either.

So, Dilma seems to own it, interesting if so.

Oh and, by reading this memento, made me think that there would something I'd be curious to know about, the place of evangelicals in the Brazilian politics, factually and in terms on psychological influences on politics there, if they have some. Last time I got interest in evangelicals in Brazil, a few years ago, I stayed with the facts that about 17% of population was evangelical (the most offensive ones, baptists and pentecostists iirc), and with a growing progression.

Then if you have stuffs on their political impact/role/place...?

[RodPresident]

After Arruda (the Brazilian Blago) was jailed because of his corruption, the tide can be stronger against PSDB-DEM-PPS.

[Hash]

I haven't been following Brazil much since I've been busy and lazy, but I plan to do so again soon.

Latest poll by Datafolha
Serra (PSDB) 32% (-5)
Rousseff (PT) 28% (+5)
Gomes (PSB) 12% (-1)
Silva (PV) 9% (+1)
Blank vote / None of these 19% (nc)

[Hash]

Latest poll by Datafolha
Serra (PSDB) 36% (+4)
Rousseff (PT) 27% (-1)
Gomes (PSB) 11% (-1)
Silva (PV) 8% (nc)
Blank vote / None of these 18% (-1)

[Hash]

Latest poll by Ibope
Serra (PSDB) 35% (-1)
Rousseff (PT) 30% (+5)
Gomes (PSB) 11% (nc)
Silva (PV) 6% (-2)
Blank vote / None of these 18% (-2)

And Lula has a 76% good, 20% average and 4% bad rating from Datafolha, highest in a long time.

Only Collor had such a low 'bad' rating (but not as high a 'good rating' - 71%) when he first took office. My, my, how that changed. Apart from that, Lula is by far the most popular Brazilian President in a long time (and probably of all-times since 1930, given that I doubt even Vargas and Kubitschek would have such a high rating).