Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[Sam Spade]

Moved TX-23 from Watch List to Likely D based on the fact a GOPer with a Hispanic name will appear on the ballot.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Moved TX-23 from Watch List to Likely D based on the fact a GOPer with a Hispanic name will appear on the ballot.

And people thought I was nuts when I put TX-23 as going GOP in a 1994 like result with House Interactive Map.

[Sam Spade]

Moved TX-23 from Watch List to Likely D based on the fact a GOPer with a Hispanic name will appear on the ballot.

And people thought I was nuts when I put TX-23 as going GOP in a 1994 like result with House Interactive Map.

Why?  You have a solid GOP base of white voters who will show up, a solid Dem base of Hispanic (and a few black) voters who will sometimes show up (i.e. unreliable) and some wacky rural voters who have been historically Democratic voters but have been known to swing in odd ways in more recent years. 

Canseco is far from the right candidate to attract the rurals, but under the right conditions you never know what they'll do.  And the Hispanic name will get some Hispanic votes - it always does in Texas.

Keep in mind, though, this is only Likely D, not more, not now.  But a Hispanic on the ballot is worth me paying attention here.

[Lunar]

Doesn't that swing both ways though with the Hispanic name?   Those kooky rurals and all?

[Sam Spade]

Doesn't that swing both ways though with the Hispanic name?   Those kooky rurals and all?

The rurals out there are mostly Hispanic/Mexican in origin.  If you separate Medina County (Uvalde, white and GOP-dominated) from the numbers, nationally it's probably close to 60-40 Dem at the Prez level in 2008 and even more Hispanic.

[Sam Spade]

btw, I meant to also move FL-25 from Watch List to Likely R, sorry.

[Lunar]

Doesn't that swing both ways though with the Hispanic name?   Those kooky rurals and all?

The rurals out there are mostly Hispanic/Mexican in origin.  If you separate Medina County (Uvalde, white and GOP-dominated) from the numbers, nationally it's probably close to 60-40 Dem at the Prez level in 2008 and even more Hispanic.

Fine, whatevsky, I meant the group you defined as "historically Democratic voters" [pretty much the most PC term I can imagine for them ]

[Sam Spade]

Doesn't that swing both ways though with the Hispanic name?   Those kooky rurals and all?

The rurals out there are mostly Hispanic/Mexican in origin.  If you separate Medina County (Uvalde, white and GOP-dominated) from the numbers, nationally it's probably close to 60-40 Dem at the Prez level in 2008 and even more Hispanic.

Fine, whatevsky, I meant the group you defined as "historically Democratic voters" [pretty much the most PC term I can imagine for them ]

In the old days, the correct term would have been "machine" voters.  Still is in some counties - Zavala and Dimmit are part of this CD.

But that's not where you look for the swings - Val Verde and Maverick are the keys, as they hold the most voters.

[Mr.Phips]

This district has pretty much elected Hispanic Democrats since its creation with a Republican winning from 1992 through 2006 after the Democratic incumbent was caught in a bribery and racketeering scandal. 

[Sam Spade]

Now that I have my hands on some more fundraising stuff, some decent changes will be occurring here in the next few days.

[Sam Spade]

Move IL Sen back to toss-up and NH Gov to Likely D.

You'll notice I've made a couple of House changes, but I am far from finished in updates there.  May happen this weekend.

[The Duke]

I completely disagree that social issues won't matter.  Once Boxer begins running abortion ads against Fiorina, then Carly is toast.  That's why this race hinges on whether its Campbell or Carly.  If its Campbell, we have a chance.  If its Carly, we don't.

Yeah, but dont you think Carly would be more willing in Tories words, to get in the snake pit with Boxer.  Some of the veteran analysts, particularly Sabato, think Carly is the strongest for that reason.  Boxer's gonna run a nasty campaign as she usually does - we have to go just as low as Boxer to beat her and she knows it.  That Boxer floating head ad, as weird as it is, is incredibly effective - it even incorporated the "Call me senator.  I earned it." flub.

Fiorina may be more willing to fight in the gutter, but that doesn't mean she can win in the gutter.  Once they get down there, Carly will get torn up on social issues and her record at HP.

She already tried her hand at negative campaigning in the primary.  The most recent poll shows that her attacks on Campbell have backfired on her.  She is now 14 points behind Campbell and only 2 points ahead of DeVore.

I know more about California politics than Larry Sabato.

[Torie]

I completely disagree that social issues won't matter.  Once Boxer begins running abortion ads against Fiorina, then Carly is toast.  That's why this race hinges on whether its Campbell or Carly.  If its Campbell, we have a chance.  If its Carly, we don't.

Yeah, but dont you think Carly would be more willing in Tories words, to get in the snake pit with Boxer.  Some of the veteran analysts, particularly Sabato, think Carly is the strongest for that reason.  Boxer's gonna run a nasty campaign as she usually does - we have to go just as low as Boxer to beat her and she knows it.  That Boxer floating head ad, as weird as it is, is incredibly effective - it even incorporated the "Call me senator.  I earned it." flub.

Fiorina may be more willing to fight in the gutter, but that doesn't mean she can win in the gutter.  Once they get down there, Carly will get torn up on social issues and her record at HP.

She already tried her hand at negative campaigning in the primary.  The most recent poll shows that her attacks on Campbell have backfired on her.  She is now 14 points behind Campbell and only 2 points ahead of DeVore.

I know more about California politics than Larry Sabato.

Do you have a link to the poll showing Campbell 14% ahead?  I just want to see it with my own beady little eyes, before I jack off while staring at it.

[The Duke]

http://www.capitolweekly.net/article.php?xid=ysd83puwg9xiu6

I guess someone who knows how the database works should put this one in there?

[Torie]

http://www.capitolweekly.net/article.php?xid=ysd83puwg9xiu6

I guess someone who knows how the database works should put this one in there?

I don't, but I will email a mod to help us.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.capitolweekly.net/article.php?xid=ysd83puwg9xiu6

I guess someone who knows how the database works should put this one in there?

I don't, but I will email a mod to help us.

Primary polls don't get put in the database, FYI.

See next post for more polling details.

[Sam Spade]

The poll Ford is referencing comes from Probolsky Research (a Republican firm) working with a Dem firm which I need to re-read the article to figure out who it is: 

http://probolskyresearch.com/documents/CapitolWeekly-ProbolskyResearch-CAPoll-ReportonResults-Prop14andMarijuana.pdf

Governor
47% Whitman
19% Poizner

Senate
31% Campbell
17% Fiorina
14% DeVore

SUSA (to me the gold standard in polling weird primary races) also released a poll a few days ago that had these results:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=17776e13-400d-4a95-a794-8272ea7277c3

Governor
49% Whitman
27% Poizner

Senate
34% Campbell
27% Fiorina
14% DeVore

[Sam Spade]

Don't pay any attention to the rest of the House crap, which has still not been updated, but PA-12 is being moved to Lean R.

[Sam Spade]

Updated with House/Senate/Governor...

Important Note on House Predictions

FWIW, I presently have 57 Democratic seats in the most vulnerable Democratic labels (Likely R, Lean R, Toss-up and Lean D) and 8 Republican seats in the most vulnerable Republican labels (Likely D, Lean D, Toss-up and Lean R).  In contrast to past years, I have tried to establish some sort of guidelines for how I imagine things within this type of map:

1) All of the Likelies fall
2) 3/4 of the Lean R fall
3) 1/2 of the Toss-up fall
4) 1/4 of the Lean D fall

If a wave occurs, then you add a 1/4 to each section where the wave hits (not necessary for likelies) and take away 1/4 from the other side's section.

My prediction for last month or so has been a net 25-30 seat Republican gain.  It's what the numbers say.  With the present map, a wave would result in probably in a 40-50 seat Republican gain, which could result in retaking the House.

Rothenberg is at 50 Democratic seats in his most vulnerable categories, with 18 seats in the less vulnerable Democratic favored (68 total).  He also has 6 Republican seats in his most vulnerable categories, with 5 seats in the less vulnerable Republican favored (11 total).

Charlie Cook is at 65 Democratic seats in his most vulnerable categories (Likely R/Lean R/Toss-up/Lean D), with 34 seats in the less vulnerable Likely D category (99 total).  He also has 5 Republican seats in his most vulnerable categories (Likely D/Lean D/Toss-up/Lean R), with 12 seats in the less vulnerable Likely R category (17 total)

I tend to, at this early date, put a good bit more seats in the lesser categories (Likely D/DEM Watch List; Likely R/GOP Watch List) than Rothenberg's somewhat similar Democratic Favored.  All of my vulnerable categories tend to fall under Charlie Cook's Likely D/Likely R model.

Right now, I've narrowed it down to 18 Likely D seats and 20 Dem Watch List, but a case could certainly be made for 30 Dem Watch List, and it would cover almost every seat I think could be potentially interesting.

Most importantly, towards the model, none of these fall except during a wave where I expect a few of the Likelies on the side the wave hits to go.  Even at that point, none of the Watch List should go.

[Torie]

What is jelling out there I wonder on the macro level that is causing the wave within the past few weeks to become considerably bigger as time goes on? Is it basically one or two major factors (HCR and the economy), or just excessive bleeding due to a thousand cuts? And I thought passage of HCR was supposed to help the Dems at the margins (that was the CV). What happened - at least so far?

[Sam Spade]

Notes about the changes:

House

1. LA-03*:  Republicans got a top-notch candidate to run here.  Louisiana can be odd in its politics, but with a decent candidate, hard to see how Republicans lose here this year.
2. CO-04:  Basically, everything's starting to look harder for Dems in Colorado this year and the GOP should have never lost this seat in the first place.  Other than that, I'm not going to give a reason for the move, just that it should be done.
3. IN-08*:  I moved every seat in Indiana up a notch after this week's primary.  Primary results, to me, are basically worthless.  However, I saw the same patterns that I saw in 2006 pop up again this week and Indiana is, and shall always be, a weird state that acts funny.
4. MD-01: Harris outraised Kratovil in 1Q2010.  GOP should have never lost this seat in the first place either and got another break when Ehrlich announced.
5. NY-29*: GOP united behind Reed.  The Dem candidate may have, may not.  Regardless, this is another seat the GOP should never have lost in the first place.
6. OH-15: Stivers' performance in the primary last Tuesday was the most impressive of the evening.  Everything else I've seen out of that campaign has been above par too.  Just a feeling.
7. AR-01*: Rick Crawford fundraised just as well as his Dem opponents and won't have to face that primary clusterf-ck.  Besides, it's Arkansas right now...
8. FL-24: Both Rothenberg and Cook moved this race to toss-up because the Republicans have someone who can self-fund a bit now in the race.  I concur.
9. IL-14: Somewhat similar to FL-24 in that Rothenberg and Cook moved it to toss-up.  Hultgren also had his best fundraising quarter in 1Q2010 but is still behind in fundraising.  I'm tempted to put it in Lean D, but for now will give into conventional thinking...
10. IN-09: See IN-08.  Young got money from Blankenship, which I guess could make a difference.  He is, however, new blood, has raised the most money and this CD's demographics continue to get worse for Hill imo.
11. PA-12* (special): I realized that I overreacted putting it in Lean R.  This area of the world is nearly impossible to poll, anyways, so why am I putting faith in polls?    FWIW, I think HI-01 is almost close to being a lost cause (unless the polling is wrong, always possible in Hawaii), whereas this is the one where Dems will pin their hopes.
12. VA-05: The GOP candidates aren't raising any money here and look weak, whereas Perriello is raising a lot of cash.  The environment may well doom him anyway, but the candidate quality could let him sneak by.
13. WI-07*: Seat opened up.  Obvious call.
14. WV-01: There's about a 50-50 chance Mollohan won't get through the primary.  The GOP is having a similar drag-out brawl, but both candidates have money, so here we go.  Last Tuesday's results, btw, suggest to me problems with Dems in Appalachia.  I want to see PA-12 before saying for sure, however, even though special elections are often less predictive than primaries.
15. GA-08: Austin Scott moved from the Governor's primary to this race last week and can presumably move at least some of funds here too.  Marshall is never going to be "safe" in this seat imo, but much less so when he has a legit opponent.
16. NM-01: Barela had a strong fundraising quarter in 1Q2010 (after a weak one before) and this seat has always been less Democratic than it probably should be (2008 excepted).
17. NY-01: As Lunar mentioned, the giant primary fight and the possibility of split tickets should push this one down a notch.  Though if things mend up in the end for the NY GOP, Bishop will probably be in a decent amount of anger because there's a lot of money flowing here.
18. OH-18: The RNCs choice pick got through the primary mess, Space has money but doesn't seem as strong as a few months ago.  Moreover, as mentioned above with WV-01, I didn't see much good news for Dems in Appalachia last Tuesday.
19. PA-08: Fitz pulled nearly $500K in 1Q2010.  So did Murphy, but that's extremely impressive in my book.
20. VA-09: Morgan Griffith pulled $100K in his first two weeks.  Boucher's got a ton of money, of course, but Appalachia and the candidate's haul (not to mention that Griffith is a strong candidate) pulls the ranking up from where it was.
21. VA-11: The GOPers are raising a respectable amount of money here.  But more important than that (and this goes with all Virginia races this year), there's no Senate/Governor's race this year to boost turnout.
22. AZ-01: Kirkpatrick has a major fundraising advantage, of course.  But it just feels to me like it should be in Likely D not Watch List.  Freshman incumbent also matters.
23. FL-02: Boyd has a ton of money.  However, the main GOPer that the NRCC seems to be uniting around, Steve Southerland, had a pretty strong quarter in 1Q2010.  Thus, because of the generics of this CD, I feel it should be bumped up a notch.
24. IL-11: Kinzinger pulled in as much funds as Halvorson last quarter, and seems to have a decent following.  Freshman incumbent too.
25. IN-02: See IN-08 and IN-09.  Also, Walorski's primary performance was the second most impressive of last Tuesday's, imo.
26. NJ-03: Runyan's fundraising sucked 1Q2010 and Adler has gobs of money, which takes this one down a notch.
27. NY-13: The GOPers here are actually fundraising pretty well enough for me to move it up a bit.  Freshman incumbent.
28. NY-20: Republicans finally coalesced around a candidate, who doesn't look that bad.  Not terrible fundraising either for being in the race a few weeks.  Murphy is fundraising well imo.  Freshman incumbent.  Still deserves the move up.
29. OH-13: I saw that Sutton's CD is only D+5, which surprised me (thought it was more).  Ganley seems willing to spend a fortune and for that, I'm willing to move him up (also realizing it was only D+5).  His primary showing was also pretty strong, and that's another reason.
30. OR-05: Schrader got outraised by Bruun last quarter, though he still has a 7-1 CoH advantage.  That's kind-of a warning sign to me, especially for a freshman incumbent, so I've moving it up a notch.
31. PA-10: Merino, for all his touting, had a bad fundraising quarter.  I doubt this CD gets moved lower than this, unless the wave threat fades, because this seat is particularly vulnerable to waves IMO.
32. PA-17: Argall's fundraising was also weak, but I think I put this one too low to start off with.
33. CT-04:  In contrast with PA-17, I think I put this one too high, and am now moving it back to a more appropriate position.  Still deserves to be watched, with freshman incumbent and all.
34. GA-02: Really deserves to be on the Watch List, IMO.  No one else is paying attention to it.
35. RI-01: The Republican has raised some money and the Dem is as crooked as a three-dollar bill.  It's still Rhode Island, but it should be watched.
36. DE-AL: Republicans have a couple of self-funders in the race now.  Henceforth...
37. FL-25: Just feel that this should be ranked higher because of candidates.  We'll see if that holds.
38. MN-06:  Unlikely this year.
39. OH-02: Ditto.

[Sam Spade]

What is jelling out there I wonder on the macro level that is causing the wave within the past few weeks to become considerably bigger as time goes on? Is it basically one or two major factors (HCR and the economy), or just excessive bleeding due to a thousand cuts? And I thought passage of HCR was supposed to help the Dems at the margins (that was the CV). What happened - at least so far?

I don't follow.

[muon2]

What is jelling out there I wonder on the macro level that is causing the wave within the past few weeks to become considerably bigger as time goes on? Is it basically one or two major factors (HCR and the economy), or just excessive bleeding due to a thousand cuts? And I thought passage of HCR was supposed to help the Dems at the margins (that was the CV). What happened - at least so far?

I don't follow.

I assume he's referring to pundits moving seats in ways that favor the GOP since HCR passed. Many thought that failure to pass HCR was the larger concern going into the fall, but the trend continues in the GOP direction despite the legislative success.

[Torie]

What is jelling out there I wonder on the macro level that is causing the wave within the past few weeks to become considerably bigger as time goes on? Is it basically one or two major factors (HCR and the economy), or just excessive bleeding due to a thousand cuts? And I thought passage of HCR was supposed to help the Dems at the margins (that was the CV). What happened - at least so far?

I don't follow.

I assume he's referring to pundits moving seats in ways that favor the GOP since HCR passed. Many thought that failure to pass HCR was the larger concern going into the fall, but the trend continues in the GOP direction despite the legislative success.

Thanks Muon2 for parsing my convoluted prose correctly. By the way, I sent you a PM thanking you for your little effort on my behalf. I just want to be sure that you saw it. I really appreciate it.

[HappyWarrior]

MD-01 really should be a toss-up.  People in the district, including many Republicans, are quite fond of Congressman Kratovil.  Also I think that fundraising is high only because of out of state fundraising.