Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 25, 2017, 02:42:32 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 13 Print
Author Topic: Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions  (Read 40829 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« on: December 15, 2009, 01:14:34 pm »
Ignore

FINAL SENATE RANKINGS

Safe D
Connecticut*
Delaware*
Hawaii
Maryland
New York (Gillibrand)
New York (Schumer)
Oregon

Lean D
California

Toss-up/Tilt D
West Virginia* (D)

Pure Toss-up
Colorado (D)
Illinois* (D)
Washington (D)

Toss-up/Tilt R
Nevada (D)
Pennsylvania* (D)

Lean R
Alaska*

Safe R
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas (D)
Florida*
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana* (D)
Iowa
Kansas*
Kentucky*
Louisiana
Missouri*
New Hampshire*
North Carolina
North Dakota* (D)
Ohio*
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah*
Wisconsin (D)

FINAL SENATE PREDICTIONS (GOP gains 9, Dems gain 0, GOP +9 = 50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND)

Alabama:  Shelby (R) 66, Barnes (D) 34 (GOP HOLD)
Alaska:  Miller (R) 40, McAdams (D) 29, Murkowski (I) 29, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Arizona:  McCain (R) 57, Glassman (D) 38, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Arkansas:  Boozman (R) 58, Lincoln (D) 39, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
California:  Boxer (D) 50, Fiorina (R) 46, Other 4 (DEM HOLD)
Colorado*:  Buck (R) 51, Bennet (D) 47, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)
Connecticut*:  Blumenthal (D) 54, McMahon (R) 44, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Delaware* (Kaufman):  Coons (D) 53, O’Donnell (R) 43, Other 4 (DEM HOLD)
Florida*:  Rubio (R) 48, Crist (I) 28, Meek (D) 22, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Georgia:  Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 38, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Hawaii:  Inouye (D) 68, Cavasso (R) 27, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
Idaho:  Crapo (R) 70, Sullivan (D) 26, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Illinois*:  Kirk (R) 48, Giannoulias (D) 47, Other 5 (GOP PICKUP)
Indiana*:  Coats (R) 56, Ellsworth (D) 41, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Iowa:  Grassley (R) 61, Conlin (D) 37, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Kansas*:  Moran (R) 68, Huelskamp (D) 28, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Kentucky*:  Paul (R) 56, Conway (D) 44 (GOP HOLD)
Louisiana:  Vitter (R) 54, Melancon (D) 41, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Maryland:  Mikulski (D) 59, Wargotz (R) 39, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Missouri*:  Blunt (R) 53, Carnahan (D) 44, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Nevada:  Angle (R) 50, Reid (D) 47, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
New Hampshire*:  Ayotte (R) 55, Hodes (D) 41, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
New York (Gillibrand):  Gillibrand (D) 57, Dioguardi 38, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
New York (Schumer):  Schumer (D) 62, Townsend (R) 35, Other 3 (DEM HOLD)
North Carolina:  Burr (R) 54, Marshall (D) 42, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
North Dakota*:  Hoeven (R) 71, Potter (D) 26, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Ohio*:  Portman (R) 58, Fisher (D) 40, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Oklahoma:  Coburn (R) 69, Rogers (D) 28, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Oregon:  Wyden (D) 55, Huffman (R) 40, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
Pennsylvania:  Toomey (R) 53, Sestak (D) 47 (GOP PICKUP)
South Carolina:  DeMint (R) 62, Greene (D) 29, Other 9 (GOP HOLD)
South Dakota:  Thune (R) 100 (GOP HOLD)
Utah*:  Lee (R) 60, Granato (D) 34, Other 6 (GOP HOLD)
Vermont:  Leahy (D) 64, Britton 30, Other 6 (DEM HOLD)
Washington:  Rossi (R) 50.3, Murray (D) 49.7 (GOP PICKUP)
West Virginia* (Goodwin):  Manchin 51, Raese 47, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Wisconsin:  Johnson (R) 53, Feingold (D) 46, Other 1 (GOP PICKUP)
« Last Edit: November 02, 2010, 07:11:44 am by Sam Spade »Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2009, 01:14:49 pm »
Ignore

FINAL HOUSE RANKINGS

DEMS (GOP Targets) (100 seats/25 Watch List)

Going R (15 seats)
AR-02*
CO-04
FL-08
FL-24
KS-03*
IL-11
IN-08*
LA-03*
NM-02
NY-29*
OH-01
OH-15
PA-03
TN-06*
TN-08*

Lean R (20 seats)
AZ-01
FL-02
GA-08
MD-01
MI-01*
MS-01
ND-AL
NH-01
NV-03
OH-16
OH-18
OR-05
PA-08
SC-05
TX-17
VA-02
VA-05
WA-03*
WI-07*
WI-08

Toss-up/Tilt R (15 seats)
AL-02
AR-01*
AZ-05
CA-11
CO-03
IL-14
IL-17
IN-09
NJ-03
NY-19
NY-20
PA-07*
PA-11
SD-AL

Pure Toss-up (15 seats)
AZ-08
CA-20
FL-22
GA-02
IN-02
MA-10*
MO-04
MS-04
NM-01
NY-23
OH-06
TN-04
TX-23
VA-09
WV-01*

Toss-up/Tilt D (15 seats)
CT-05
IA-01
IA-02
ID-01
KY-06
MI-07
NC-02
NC-07
NC-08
NH-02*
NY-01
NY-24
PA-10
PA-12
VA-11

Lean D (20 seats)
AZ-07
CA-47
CO-07
CT-04
IA-03
KY-03
ME-01
ME-02
MI-09
MN-01
MN-08
NC-11
NY-22
NY-25
PA-04
RI-01*
TX-27
WA-02
WI-03

Watch List (25 seats)
AR-04
CA-18
GA-12
IL-08
MA-04
MA-05
MA-06
MN-07
MO-03
NM-03
NJ-06
NJ-12
NY-02
NY-04
NY-13
OH-10
OH-13
OK-02
OR-01
OR-04
PA-17
TN-05
TX-25
UT-02
WA-09
WV-03

GOP (DEM Targets) (9 seats/6 Watch List)

Going D (2 seats)
DE-AL
LA-02

Toss-up/Tilt D (1 seats)
IL-10*

Toss-up/Tilt R (2 seats)
HI-01
FL-25*

Lean R (4 seats)
AZ-03*
CA-03
FL-12*
WA-08

Watch List (6 seats)
CA-45
MI-03*
MN-06
NE-02
PA-06
PA-15

FINAL HOUSE PREDICTIONS (NOT FINAL FOR NOW - may be less)

GOP PICKUPS (74 seats)
AL-02
AR-01*
AR-02*
AZ-01
AZ-05
AZ-08
CA-11
CA-20
CO-03
CO-04
CT-04!
CT-05
FL-02
FL-08
FL-22
FL-24
GA-02
GA-08
IA-01!
IA-02
ID-01!
IL-08!
IL-11
IL-14!
IL-17
IN-02!
IN-08*
IN-09
LA-03*
MD-01
MI-01*
MI-07!
MI-09!
MN-08!
MO-04
MS-01
MS-04
NC-02!
NC-07!
NC-08
ND-AL!
NH-01
NJ-03
NM-01!
NM-02
NV-03
NY-01!
NY-19
NY-20!
NY-23!
NY-29*
OH-01
OH-15
OH-16
OH-18
OR-05
PA-03
PA-07*
PA-08
PA-10!
SC-05
SD-AL
TN-04
TN-06*
TN-08*
TX-17
TX-23
VA-02
VA-05
VA-11
WA-03*
WI-03!
WI-07*
WI-08

DEM PICKUPS (3 seats)
DE-AL*
IL-10
LA-02
« Last Edit: November 02, 2010, 09:21:18 am by Sam Spade »Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2009, 01:15:04 pm »
Ignore

FINAL GOVERNOR RANKINGS

Safe D
Arkansas
California* (R)
Maryland
New York*

Lean D
Colorado*
Minnesota* (R)
Massachusetts
New Hampshire

Toss-up/Tilt D
Hawaii* (R)

Pure Toss-up
Connecticut* (R)
Florida* (R)
Ohio (D)
Oregon* (D)
Vermont* (R)

Toss-up/Tilt R
Illinois* (D)

Lean R
Georgia*
Maine* (D)
Pennsylvania* (D)
South Carolina*

Safe R
Alabama*
Alaska
Arizona
Kansas*
Idaho
Iowa (D)
Michigan* (D)
Nebraska
New Mexico* (D)
Nevada*
Oklahoma* (D)
South Dakota*
Tennessee* (D)
Texas
Wisconsin* (D)
Utah
Wyoming* (D)

Tossup/Tilt I
Rhode Island* (R)

FINAL GOVERNOR PREDICTIONS (GOP gains 12, DEM gains 5, GOP +7)

Alabama*:  Bentley (R) 61, Sparks (D) 39 (GOP HOLD)
Alaska:  Parnell (R) 60, Berkowitz (D) 35, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Arizona:  Brewer (R) 55, Goddard (D) 43, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
Arkansas:  Beebe (D) 58, Keet (D) 39, Other 3 (DEM HOLD)
California*:  Brown (D) 51, Whitman (R) 45, Other 4 (DEM PICKUP)
Colorado*:  Hickenlooper (D) 47, Tancredo (I) 45, Maes (R) 6, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Connecticut*:  Foley (R) 49, Malloy (D) 48, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Florida*:  Scott (R) 48.4, Sink (D) 48.2, Other 3.4 (GOP HOLD) - I'm going against M-D here, I expect to be wrong.
Georgia*:  Deal (R) 52, Barnes (D) 43, Other 5 (GOP HOLD)
Hawaii*:  Abercrombie (D) 51, Aiona (R) 47, Other 2 (DEM PICKUP)
Idaho:  Otter (R) 59, Allred (D) 37, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Illinois:  Brady (R) 48, Quinn (D) 42, Other 10 (GOP PICKUP)
Iowa:  Branstad (R) 55, Culver (D) 42, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Kansas*:  Brownback (R) 62, Holland 35, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Maine*:  LePage (R) 43, Mitchell (D) 27, Cutler (I) 27, Other 3 (GOP PICKUP)
Maryland:  O’Malley (D) 54, Ehrlich (R) 44, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Massachusetts:  Patrick (D) 47, Baker (R) 45, Cahill (I) 6, Other 2 (DEM HOLD)
Michigan*:  Snyder (R) 58, Bernero (D) 40, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)
Minnesota:  Dayton (D) 43, Emmer (R) 42, Horner (I) 14, Other 1 (DEM PICKUP)
Nebraska:  Heineman (R) 74, Meister (D) 26 (GOP HOLD)
Nevada*:  Sandoval (R) 57, Reid (D) 39, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
New Hampshire:  Lynch (D) 51, Stephen (R) 48, Other 1 (DEM HOLD)
New Mexico*:  Martinez (R) 54, Denish (D) 46 (GOP PICKUP)
New York*:  Cuomo (D) 56, Paladino (R) 39, Other 5 (DEM HOLD)
Ohio:  Kasich (R) 51, Strickland (D) 48, Other 1 (GOP PICKUP)
Oklahoma*:  Fallin (R) 59, Askins (D) 41 (GOP PICKUP)
Oregon*:  Kitzhaber (D) 48.2, Dudley 48.0, Other 3.8 (DEM HOLD)
Pennsylvania*:  Corbett (R) 54, Onorato (D) 46 (GOP PICKUP)
Rhode Island*:  Caprio (D) 35, Chafee (I) 33, Robataille (R) 30, Other 2 (DEM PICKUP) - surprise call of the evening, I expect this to be wrong...
South Carolina*:  Haley (R) 53, Shaheen (D) 45, Other 2 (GOP HOLD)
South Dakota*:  Daugaard (R) 60, Heidepreim (D) 40 (GOP HOLD)
Tennessee*:  Haslam (R) 61, McWherter (D) 35, Other 4 (GOP PICKUP)
Texas:  Perry (R) 53, White (D) 44, Other 3 (GOP HOLD)
Utah:  Herbert (R) 61, Corroon (D) 35, Other 4 (GOP HOLD)
Vermont*:  Shumlin (D) 51, Dubie (R) 44, Other 5 (DEM PICKUP)
Wisconsin*:  Walker (R) 54, Barrett (D) 44, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)
Wyoming*:  Mead (R) 64, Petersen (D) 34, Other 2 (GOP PICKUP)
« Last Edit: November 01, 2010, 09:56:55 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
TRIPLE ROCK
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 81190
Ukraine


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2009, 10:27:57 pm »
Ignore

I thought Freundenthal was term-limited.
Logged

Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2009, 10:50:19 pm »
Ignore

I thought Freundenthal was term-limited.

It's kind of complicated - basically the Wyoming Supreme Court ruled term limits were unconstitutional with regards to some other state office (I forget which one) but didn't touch the Governor's office. 

Still, it's been assumed that the Governor's office term limits are unconstitutional, but Freundenthal would have to challenge it and he said he'd let us know by March.  The Republicans who control Wyoming have basically been happy with his leadership, so he might not get a serious challenge, who knows...
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2010, 11:16:50 am »
Ignore

Made a few changes to the Senate races with the news.  Blumenthal makes CT Likely D for me and Hoeven makes ND Likely R for me until I see something which makes me think otherwise.  I also put MA at Likely R because even though I believe it's safe - races that I happen to believe are within 10 points I find very hard to put in Safe (i.e. it's a technical change).

My House race material is going to remain unchanged for the next few weeks until all the fundraising stuff comes in - but there are going to be changes when it occurs.
Logged
TRIPLE ROCK
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 81190
Ukraine


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2010, 11:24:32 am »
Ignore

I assume you mean you put MA at Likely D.
Logged

Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2010, 07:15:24 pm »
Ignore

Yes.  Oops  Tongue
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6802


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2010, 07:31:53 pm »
Ignore

Why do you see Pat Tiberi as being so vulnerable? That's the one rating on your House list that really jumps out at me.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2010, 10:08:26 pm »
Ignore

Why do you see Pat Tiberi as being so vulnerable? That's the one rating on your House list that really jumps out at me.

It should because it should be lower.  Tongue

I really need to revise the rankings and move some things around but I'm not going to do it right now.
Logged
Kellywise
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2811
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2010, 10:18:56 pm »
Ignore

How about SD-AL? I realize Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is immensely popular there, but isn't she being challenged by Secretary of State Chris Nelson? If so, that could be a race to watch, albeit she has the edge with incumbency but 2010 is shaping out to be a very anti-incumbent year.

How about SC-01? I'm surprised that race isn't on your list. Harry Brown Jr. (R) was almost defeated in 2008 by a lesbian! Any race in which a lesbian comes close to knocking off a conservative Republican incumbent in the South, I think, merits attention.

Isn't Mary Bono Mack being challenged by an openly gay man, the Mayor of Palm Springs Steve Pougnet or however you spell his name? Not sure how popular she is in the district but I think Obama won the district in 2008.
Logged

politicalchick20
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 308
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2010, 10:50:31 pm »
Ignore

How about SD-AL? I realize Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is immensely popular there, but isn't she being challenged by Secretary of State Chris Nelson? If so, that could be a race to watch, albeit she has the edge with incumbency but 2010 is shaping out to be a very anti-incumbent year.

How about SC-01? I'm surprised that race isn't on your list. Harry Brown Jr. (R) was almost defeated in 2008 by a lesbian! Any race in which a lesbian comes close to knocking off a conservative Republican incumbent in the South, I think, merits attention.

Isn't Mary Bono Mack being challenged by an openly gay man, the Mayor of Palm Springs Steve Pougnet or however you spell his name? Not sure how popular she is in the district but I think Obama won the district in 2008.

I'm pretty sure MBM is being challenged by Pougnet; I'm not sure if it's official yet, though (and yes, you spelled his name right Smiley ).
As far as I know, she's still pretty popular (as was Sonny before her, even though he was more conservative than she is), but when you take into account that her district has the largest gay population while being represented by a Republican...I'd say Pougnet being openly gay would definitely give him a potential edge (of course, Mary has also publicly supported her stepdaughter Chastity becoming her stepson Chaz, so who knows?).
Logged

Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2010, 11:00:49 pm »
Ignore

All these things will be taken care of in due time, folks.  I haven't given a "serious" look at things in a couple of months.  When I do, I'll bump it up.  Today was only for the Senate stuff.
Logged
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10648


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2010, 10:46:13 pm »
Ignore

Only going to list my Top 50 on the Republican side and Top 25 on the Democratic side in the House because that's probably as far as I need to go for the moment.

EDIT (November 16):  Changed to 60 Republican seats because I think they deserve a slightly wider net at the moment.  No change to Dems.

EDIT (December 15):  With some new open seats, the list has been changed a bit.  I haven't added any more Dem seats to the Watch List for now, but I may add a couple more soon.


HOUSE

DEM (GOP Targets)

Toss-up
1. TN-06*
2. LA-03*
3. VA-05
4. ID-01
5. AL-02
6. KS-03*
7. WA-03*
8. MD-01
9. NM-02
10. MS-01
11. TN-08*
12. CO-04
13. PA-07*
14. OH-01
15. NH-02*
16. OH-15

Lean D
17. FL-24
18. IL-14
19. NH-01
20. NV-03
21. MI-07
22. NY-29
23. AR-02
24. NY-23
25. TX-17
26. FL-08
27. NC-08
28. VA-02
29. OH-16
30. NY-24
31. IA-03
32. OH-18

Likely D
33. TN-04
34. PA-11
35. PA-10
36. HI-01*
37. GA-08
38. NY-01
39. VA-11
40. SC-05
41. PA-03
42. CA-11
43. MO-04
44. NY-20
45. PA-04
46. AZ-05

Watch List
AR-01
AZ-01
CT-04
FL-02
FL-22
GA-12
IN-09
MS-04
NJ-03
NM-01
NY-19
PA-12
SD-AL
TX-23
VA-09
WI-08

GOP (DEM Targets)

Toss-up
1. LA-02
2. DE-AL*
3. IL-10*
4. PA-06*

Lean R
5. WA-08
6. CA-03
7. NE-02
8. PA-15
9. OH-12

Likely R
10. MN-06
11. CA-44
12. KS-04*
13. OH-02
14. TX-10
15. CA-45

Watch List
AK-AL
AL-05
FL-10
FL-12*
FL-15
FL-16
IL-13
MI-11
MN-03
SC-02

Add Arizona (Cool to the toss-up category.  Gabby has gone out of her way to antagonize her constitutents, and is likely to be looking for work after the election.
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Lunar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30434
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2010, 10:57:35 pm »
Ignore

Considering Kirk's continued fundraising advantage, do you now consider IL to be closer after what we just saw in MA?  I mean, if the Democrats couldn't count on the MA machine...
Logged

this is real
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2010, 10:59:52 pm »
Ignore

Considering Kirk's continued fundraising advantage, do you now consider IL to be closer to a tossup after what we just saw in MA?  I mean, if the Democrats couldn't count on the MA machine...

I have always considered Illinois a toss-up.  Illinois has some working-class areas, yes...  Tongue  But they may be less-likely to be open to revolt.
Logged
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37352
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2010, 11:58:13 pm »
Ignore

Are you going to put PA-17 in the Watch list?
Logged

People's Speaker of the Atlasian House of Representatives

Rowan
RowanBrandon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6696


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2010, 11:58:50 pm »
Ignore

Might as well put all Democratic seats on the watch list now.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2010, 02:02:57 am »
Ignore

Might as well put all Democratic seats on the watch list now.

lol

I was going to put PA-17 there on the update.  Don't fret.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16321
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2010, 12:26:18 pm »
Ignore



Might as well put all Democratic seats on the watch list now.

lol

I was going to put PA-17 there on the update.  Don't fret.

Rumor has it a new poll in NY-16 shows Jose Serrano down by 20 points to an unnamed "tea party candidate".... Wink
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2010, 12:28:08 pm »
Ignore



Might as well put all Democratic seats on the watch list now.

lol

I was going to put PA-17 there on the update.  Don't fret.

Rumor has it a new poll in NY-16 shows Jose Serrano down by 20 points to an unnamed "tea party candidate".... Wink

lol - the reason why PA-17 would be on the watch list, of course, is because Holden has got what looks to me to be serious challenge.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16321
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2010, 12:59:52 pm »
Ignore

I know. Smiley NY-16 should at least be considered lean Dem. Wink

In all seriousness I do agree on PA-17, though at this point I'd say every district with a PVI of R+5 or greater really should automatically be considered watch list until further evidence proves otherwise.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2010, 01:01:07 pm »
Ignore

I know. Smiley NY-16 should at least be considered lean Dem. Wink

In all seriousness I do agree on PA-17, though at this point I'd say every district with a PVI of R+5 or greater really should automatically be considered watch list until further evidence proves otherwise.

Fair enough - I've given thought to that myself of the past couple of weeks.
Logged
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37352
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2010, 03:30:14 pm »
Ignore

I know. Smiley NY-16 should at least be considered lean Dem. Wink

In all seriousness I do agree on PA-17, though at this point I'd say every district with a PVI of R+5 or greater really should automatically be considered watch list until further evidence proves otherwise.

Well not exactly. I wouldn't be putting Boren, Chandler or Taylor up there. You have to consider whether a reasonalby good opponent is running or considering running.


I wonder if the results in MA will convince Terry Kilgore to run against Rick Boucher in VA-09?
Logged

People's Speaker of the Atlasian House of Representatives

Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27868


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2010, 09:23:27 pm »
Ignore

Updated Senate today.

Will update Governors tomorrow and probably House later this week (it takes the most time).

I did switch Indiana to Likely D, but I will move to Lean D if Pence actually runs (just a suspicion).
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 13 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines