Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[Sam Spade]

Added MA-04, MA-05, NJ-06, OH-10, TN-05, TX-25.  Removed MI-15 and PA-13.

In reality, I could have kept PA-13 on there and added NC-4, NY-9 and WA-6, but I feel like that's too many and the chances of something weird happening there are just simply too low.

[Torie]

If Price falls, the world will end as we know it. It will be interesting to see just how mad the working to middle class Jews in NY-9 really are, a big chunk of them Orthodox. I think that race is a real sleeper, but yes, low odds of really flipping.

[Sam Spade]

If Price falls, the world will end as we know it. It will be interesting to see just how mad the working to middle class Jews in NY-9 really are, a big chunk of them Orthodox. I think that race is a real sleeper, but yes, low odds of really flipping.

Oddly, Charlie Cook recently moved NC-4 to Likely D.  Nothing for NY-9.  Truthfully though, NY-9 has a better chance of flipping than NY-13 - watch.  I will never buy into the hype of a Brooklyn candidate winning in a Staten Island district.

[Keystone Phil]

Added MA-04, MA-05, NJ-06, OH-10, TN-05, TX-25.  Removed MI-15 and PA-13.

In reality, I could have kept PA-13 on there and added NC-4, NY-9 and WA-6, but I feel like that's too many and the chances of something weird happening there are just simply too low.

PA 13 might be a Wednesday morning surprise. 

[Torie]

Added MA-04, MA-05, NJ-06, OH-10, TN-05, TX-25.  Removed MI-15 and PA-13.

In reality, I could have kept PA-13 on there and added NC-4, NY-9 and WA-6, but I feel like that's too many and the chances of something weird happening there are just simply too low.

PA 13 might be a Wednesday morning surprise. 

And here I was admiring your "recovery" from PA 13 obsessions.

[Sam Spade]

Governor and Senate predictions finalized.  House later.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania:  Toomey (R) 53, Sestak (D) 47 (GOP HOLD)

[Sam Spade]

House predictions finished.  If you notice, I exclamation pointed (!) a situation where Dems lose 53 seats (more conservative polls correct), but right now I'm going with the more audacious prediction of 71 seats total.

[Torie]

Lawyers are just so good at covering their back aren't they?  

In looking at the list, things were going smoothly (yes, almost all the ones that we chew our nails over seem to be on the list, and when almost all of them are on the list, they do add up don't they?), until we got to the terrible I's (what were you on when you were working on the I's Sam?):

IA-01!
IA-02
ID-01!
IL-08!



I see you didn't get tempted by any of Campaign Spot's little surprises.

And then there is MN-8 on your little dead Dems list.  I tend to doubt it (it isn't in Wisconsin alas), but that will be a fun one to watch, and fun to predict as one looks at southern versus northern turnout and swings, with all those little counties within to compare. Hopefully it will keep us in suspense for hours and hours, as BRTD gets blasted! 

Pity it won't be until tomorrow sometime probably until whether I know whether I won or lost my bet with Memphis over Djou's fate.   It would be great if he won, and shook up the somnolent politics of the place. Hawaii is too boring!

[Sam Spade]

Lawyers are just so good at covering their back aren't they?  

In looking at the list, things were going smoothly (yes, almost all the ones that we chew our nails over seem to be on the list, and when almost all of them are on the list, they do add up don't they?), until we got to the terrible I's (what were you on when you were working on the I's Sam?):

IA-01!
IA-02
ID-01!
IL-08!



I see you didn't get tempted by any of Campaign Spot's little surprises.

And then there is MN-8 on your little dead Dems list.  I tend to doubt it (it isn't in Wisconsin alas), but that will be a fun one to watch, and fun to predict as one looks at southern versus northern turnout and swings, with all those little counties within to compare. Hopefully it will keep us in suspense for hours and hours, as BRTD gets blasted! 

Pity it won't be until tomorrow sometime probably until whether I know whether I won or lost my bet with Memphis over Djou's fate.   It would be great if he won, and shook up the somnolent politics of the place. Hawaii is too boring!

The prediction is based on the supposed wave hitting hardest in the upper Midwest and formerly GOP, now swing Dem, maybe not,... suburbs

I naturally have to predict IA-02 since I was talking about it for months...

I'm always going to predict a few surprises - they do happen.

[Sam Spade]

REVIEW OF PREDICTIONS PART 1
(MOE +/-3%)

Alabama
Senate
Prediction:  Shelby (R) 66, Barnes (D) 34
Actual: Shelby (R) 65, Barnes (D) 35 Within MOE
Comment:  Yep.

Governor
Prediction:  Bentley (R) 61, Sparks (D) 39
Actual:  Bentley (R) 58, Sparks (D) 42 Outside MOE
Comment:  Bentley underperformed a little more than I thought he would.  But it's not like this was exactly unsurprising.

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
AL-02 (to GOP) Correct
Comment: Compared to what else happened in Alabama, Bright overperformed masterfully.  But it still wasn't enough.

Alaska
Senate
Prediction:  Miller (R) 40, Murkowski (WI) 29, McAdams (D) 29, Other 2
Actual:  Murkowski (WI) 40, Miller (R) 34, McAdams (D) 23, Other 2 Outside MOE, WRONG WINNER
Comment:  Wow, what an awful prediction.  McAdams still underran his polling, proving one true fact about Alaska, regardless of circumstances.

Governor
Prediction:  Parnell (R) 60, Berkowitz (D) 35, Other 5
Actual:  Parnell (R) 59, Berkowitz (D) 38, Other 3 Outside MOE
Comment:  In a more easily predictable Alaska race, more predictable results.  

Arizona
Senate
Prediction: McCain (R) 57, Glassman (D) 38, Other 5
Actual:  McCain (R) 59, Glassman (D) 35, Other 6 Outside MOE
Comment:  Not particularly unhappy with this.  McCain was never "that" strong, but
always safe.

Governor
Prediction:  Brewer (R) 55, Goddard (D) 43, Other 2
Actual:  Brewer (R) 54, Goddard (D) 42, Other 4 Within MOE, EXACT MARGIN
Comment:  If only Obama had shut his trap earlier this year...  Goddard still wouldn't have won, of course, but the race would have been competitive at least b/c Brewer is not competent (irregardless of whether you agree with her political beliefs).

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
AZ-01 (to GOP) Correct
AZ-03* (stays GOP) Correct
AZ-05 (to GOP) Correct
AZ-07 (stays DEM) Correct
AZ-08 (to GOP) Wrong
Comment: Giffords survived, barely.  Quayle ran about a point behind Shadegg 2008, fyi.  When the Dems went hardcore advertising in AZ-07, I suspected the Hispanic turnout would be enough to save Grijalva, and it was (a general message about this election - with the exception of a few important places, there were not that many major turnout gaps that I can detect in comparison with 2008 - just something to keep in mind).  I should've noted this message in other races, though.

Arkansas
Senate
Prediction:  Boozman (R) 58, Lincoln (D) 39, Other 3
Actual:  Boozman (R) 58, Lincoln (D) 37, Other 5 Within MOE
Comment:  I gave Lincoln far too much credit.  She didn't even whiff 40%.

Governor
Prediction:  Beebe (D) 58, Keet (D) 39, Other 3
Actual:  Beebe (D) 64, Keet (D) 34, Other 2 Outside MOE
Comment:  And I gave Beebe far too little credit.  Especially in the face of what happened downballot.  Though the prediction was a bit of an inside joke.

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
AR-01* (to GOP) Correct
AR-02* (to GOP) Correct
AR-04 (stays Dem) Correct
Comment:  Nothing too strange here.  Ross did hold on, of course.

California
Senate
Prediction:  Boxer (D) 50, Fiorina (R) 46, Other 4
Actual:  Boxer (D) 52, Fiorina (R) 42, Other 6 Outside MOE
Comment:  If you peek under the hood for a moment, you start to realize that California was all about turnout (so was Washington, but that's a long way off).  What's the answer, you ask?  I'm not going to give it to you...

Governor
Prediction:  Brown (D) 51, Whitman (R) 45, Other 4
Actual:  Brown (D) 54, Whitman (R) 41, Other 5 Outside MOE
Comment:  Yep, so Whitman ran behind generic Republican, err... Fiorina, as was obvious since, at latest, September and probably earlier.  Can't say that I didn't warn you here, Torie...  

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
CA-03 (stays GOP) Correct
CA-11 (to GOP) Wrong
CA-18 (stays DEM) Correct
CA-20 (to GOP) Wrong
CA-45 (stays GOP) Wrong
CA-47 (stays DEM) Wrong
Comment:  I should have applied what I saw in AZ-07 to CA-20, but the Central Valley is in such bad shape, I didn't.  McNerney barely held on but that does say something about that seat.

Colorado
Senate
Prediction:  Buck (R) 51, Bennet (D) 47, Other 2
Actual: Bennet (D) 48, Buck (R) 46, Other 5 Outside MOE, WRONG WINNER
Comment:  Colorado is not an easy state to poll, and, as thus, one of the key things I always remember is that SUSA has done consistently better in the state than anyone else by far.  So I waited and waited for their last poll, considering their previous one said 47-47 tie.  We never got it.  Taking into account early voting, etc., I said - Buck must have pulled in the undecideds and judged accordingly.  Au contaire.  Nothing changed.  And the gender gap suggests almost crystal clearly to me that the rape issue won it for Bennet.

Governor
Prediction:  Hickenlooper (D) 47, Tancredo (AIP) 45, Maes (R) 6, Other 2
Actual:  Hickenlooper (D) 51, Tancredo (AIP) 36, Maes (R) 11, Other 2 Outside MOE
Comment:  Remember the effect of early voting on late movement in polls.  I didn't.  

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
CO-03 (to GOP) Correct
CO-04 (to GOP) Correct
Comment:  Salazar was one where I was always about 3 steps ahead of the brilliant "pundits" this year. (sometime you have to pat yourself on the back).  Markey was dead meat the moment she won.

Connecticut
Senate
Prediction: Blumenthal (D) 54, McMahon (R) 44, Other 2
Actual: Blumenthal (D) 55, McMahon (R) 43, Other 2 Within MOE
Comment:  McMahon probably underperformed a little, like all high-spending candidates do, but not that much and not enough to matter.

Governor
Prediction: Foley 49, Malloy 48, Other 3
Actual: Malloy 50, Foley 49, Other 1 Within MOE, WRONG WINNER
Comment: One of the most important observations about this election was - in states where Dems have a good party apparatus, their voters showed up, eliminating most, if not all, of the enthusiasm gap present in polling that emphasizes such.  Of course, in some places, like the upper Midwest or Arkansas, this didn't really matter.  Not surprising, really.  That's why it's called a wave election.  But along the coasts...

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
CT-04 (to GOP) Wrong
CT-05 (to GOP) Wrong
Comment:  Bad year with Connecticut.  Al is right about CT-04 - I can't disagree now.  At least I wasn't stupid enough to even think about listing CT-02.  

Delaware
Senate
Prediction: Coons (D) 53, O'Donnell (R) 43, Other 4
Actual:  Coons (D) 57, O'Donnell (R) 40, Other 4 Outside MOE
Comment:  So O'Donnell was a disaster, but look at her effect down the ballot.  Wowsers.  The prediction sucked, but at least I never thought she'd win.  

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
DE-AL* (to Dem) Correct
Comment:  Rather obvious, don't you think...

Florida
Senate
Prediction: Rubio (R) 48, Crist (I) 28, Meek (D) 22, Other 2
Actual: Rubio (R) 49, Crist (I) 30, Meek (D) 20, Other 1 Within MOE
Comment:  Rubio would have won regardless.  Remember April and the posts on the forum...  

Governor
Prediction: Scott (R) 48.4, Sink (D) 48.2, Other 3.4
Actual: Scott (R) 48.9, Sink (D) 47.7, Other 3.4 Within MOE
Comment: Went against M-D and won!  Btw, I noticed in the primary that undecideds tended to break towards Scott, henceforth the call.

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
FL-02 (to GOP) Correct
FL-08 (to GOP) Correct
FL-12* (stays GOP) Correct
FL-22 (to GOP) Correct
FL-24 (to GOP) Correct
FL-25* (stays GOP) Correct
Comment:  Most of these races were obvious, but I suspected West would benefit from partisanship this year.  Note that FL-22 best mirrors the national swing from 2008 to 2010, with about a 2-3% Republican bias (which makes sense in Florida)  Also, what were Dems doing down in FL-25? Biggest waste of money, period - that CD always overpolls Dems by a lot.  They would have been better off putting something on FL-12 (still wouldn't have worked).

Georgia
Senate
Prediction:  Isakson (R) 59, Thurmond (D) 38, Other 3
Actual:  Isakson (R) 58, Thurmond (D) 39, Other 3 Within MOE
Comment:  Georgia prediction is easy once you get the turnout right.

Governor
Prediction:  Deal (R) 52, Barnes (D) 43, Other 5
Actual:  Deal (R) 53, Barnes (D) 43, Other 4 Within MOE
Comment:  A retread candidate race where the polling made complete sense.  Rare in this election.  Did Barnes ever get over 43% in any polling, btw?

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
GA-02 (to GOP) Wrong
GA-08 (to GOP) Correct
GA-12 (stays Dem) Correct
Comment:  I don't need to see the results to say that Bishop must've gotten enough blacks to show up and kept at least a few personal votes from whites.  Not surprised, just thought there wouldn't be enough.

Hawaii
Senate
Prediction:  Inouye (D) 68, Cavasso (R) 27, Other 5
Actual:  Inouye (D) 75, Cavasso (R) 22, Other 3 Outside MOE
Comment:  And here I thought Inouye might underperform a little (he has before).  Oh well.  Anyone who bought the Rasmussen poll was on crack.

Governor
Prediction:  Abercrombie (D) 51, Aiona (R) 47, Other 2
Actual:  Abercrombie (D) 58, Aiona (R) 41, Other 1 Outside MOE
Comment:  I thought the Hawaiian vs. white might make a difference.  Guess I should remember to never trust Hawaii polling.  

House - Ranked Races
Prediction:
HI-01 (stays GOP) Wrong
Comment:  Close but no cigar.  At least I didn't really bet, like Torie, but if I was going to call IL-08, calling IL-10 for GOP and HI-01 for Dems would make more sense internally.  Which is something in my predictions I've tried to be more careful about this year (and will do so
even more in the future).

a start, more soon...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alaska
Senate
Prediction:  Miller (R) 40, Murkowski (WI) 29, McAdams (D) 29, Other 2
Actual:  Murkowski (WI) 40, Miller (R) 34, McAdams (D) 23, Other 2 Outside MOE, WRONG WINNER
Comment:  Wow, what an awful prediction.  McAdams still underran his polling, proving one true fact about Alaska, regardless of circumstances.

My gut feeling was Murkowski would win, but I changed my prediction at the last minute to Miller, figuring the state would default to the Republican on the ballot. Whoops.

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I never did understand why everyone thought Giffords was in worse shape than Mitchell.

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I blame that stupid SUSA poll showing Vidak ahead by 10.

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I think you mean CT-05 was wrong.

I was tempted to predict that the Democrats wouldn't lose a single seat in New England outside of New Hampshire. Fortune favors the bold, I guess.

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I said it before and I'll say it again, anyone who thought they could seriously predict this one was on crack. I ended up guessing the Dems would win it, but that's mostly because Djou would have had to pull in something like a third of Case's voters from the special to win.

[Sam Spade]

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I never did understand why everyone thought Giffords was in worse shape than Mitchell.[/quote]

Early on, it appeared that this was correct.  But not towards the end.  If you go by a lot of Al's theories, though, you would have concluded what you did in the first place.

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I blame that stupid SUSA poll showing Vidak ahead by 10.[/quote]

Unlike OR-5, I never believed that poll.

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I think you mean CT-05 was wrong.[/quote]

I was tempted to predict that the Democrats wouldn't lose a single seat in New England outside of New Hampshire. Fortune favors the bold, I guess.[/quote]

Oops.  You're right.  And a correct analysis of things would have said not to pick seats along the West Coast but rather in the Ohio Valley, where both my pickup of West Virginia early voting and Al's analysis showed massacre incoming.  No one's perfect... 

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I said it before and I'll say it again, anyone who thought they could seriously predict this one was on crack. I ended up guessing the Dems would win it, but that's mostly because Djou would have had to pull in something like a third of Case's voters from the special to win.
[/quote]

If you're going to have a predictions thread, you gotta make predictions! 

[Sam Spade]

PART 2

Idaho
Senate
Prediction: Crapo (R) 70, Sullivan (D) 26, Other 4
Actual: Crapo (R) 71, Sullivan (D) 25, Other Within MOE
Comment:  Nothing much to say here. 

Governor
Prediction: Otter (R) 59, Allred (D) 37, Other 4
Actual: Otter (R) 59, Allred (D) 33, Other 8 Outside MOE
Comment:  Not really a bad prediction.

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
ID-01 (to GOP) Correct
Correct: You could just sense over the last few weeks that Minnick was slowly, but surely, going down.  And he did.

Illinois
Senate
Prediction: Kirk (R) 48, Giannoulias (D) 47, Other 5
Actual: Kirk (R) 48, Giannoulias (D) 46, Other 6 Within MOE
Comment: If Giannoulias would have gotten a couple thousand more votes, my prediction would have been exactly right.  This was always probably the way it was going to end up.  We'll know for sure if it was planned if the G-man gets indicted in 2011.

Governor
Prediction: Brady (R) 48, Quinn (D) 42, Other 10
Actual: Quinn (D) 47, Brady (R) 46, Other 7 Outside MOE, WRONG WINNER
Comment: Just remember that both the Illinois Dems and GOP feared Brady much more than Kirk (in fact, neither side fears Kirk at all - which is part of the reason why he was successful  ).  Anyway, the more I look at things, the more I see how bad a campaign Brady ran.  Quinn ran the same as Giannoulias in most areas (not much variation).

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
IL-08 (to GOP) Correct
IL-10* (to DEM) Wrong
IL-11 (to GOP) Correct
IL-14 (to GOP) Correct
IL-17 (to GOP) Correct
Comment: Halvorson's complete implosion still surprises me.  Kinzinger ran better than Weller in 2006 (amusingly).  I do want to note that I called Bean (impressive), which means I should have called IL-10 staying GOP also (not impressive).  I can't say that I'm surprised by IL-14, in a GOP wave it was almost always going to fall - them historic GOP areas in a GOP wave (or DEM areas in a DEM wave) are always problems.  I suspect Hare did himself in wrt IL-17.

Indiana
Senate
Prediction:  Coats (R) 56, Ellsworth (D) 41, Other 3
Actual:  Coats (R) 55, Ellsworth (D) 40, Other 5 Within MOE, EXACT MARGIN
Comment:  Ellsworth = epic fail.  But even though Coats is/was not a strong candidate (to put it mildly), I don't any Dem could have won here this year and Bayh would have been, at best, a 50-50 shot to hold on.

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
IN-02 (to GOP) Wrong
IN-08* (to GOP) Correct
IN-09 (to GOP) Correct
Comment:  Even with what else was going on in the Midwest, Walorski was just still too out there, I suspect.  The third-parties helped, of course.  Donnelly won't be so fortunate come redistricting time, of course.

Iowa
Senate
Prediction: Grassley (R) 61, Conlin (D) 37, Other 2
Actual: Grassley (R) 64, Conlin (D) 33, Other 3 Outside MOE
Comment: While it was quite obvious that Grassley would not do as well as previous iterations, one must never forget how women underpoll in Iowa.  I did. 

Governor
Prediction: Branstad (R) 55, Culver (D) 42, Other 3
Actual: Branstad (R) 53, Culver (D) 43, Other 3 Within MOE
Comment: One of the things you always remember in Iowa is that even if the partisans are not enthused, the folks in the know make sure they show up in the end (see 2008).  The fact that Iowa is "highly partisan" in a certain weird Midwest way makes this more important than it should be.  Should have remembered that in the House.

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
IA-01 (to GOP) Wrong
IA-02 (to GOP) Wrong
IA-03 (stays Dem) Correct
Comment:  In earlier times, places like IA-01 and IA-02 would have fallen as seeing potential out-of-the-way problems and attacking them would have not occurred (even with the note above).  Some of the Democrats' heaviest advertising went here in the last few days.  IA-01 almost fell anyways.  IA-03 would have fallen regardless, with a competent candidate.

Kansas
Senate
Prediction:  Moran (R) 68, Huelskamp (D) 28, Other 4
Actual:  Moran (R) 70, Huelskamp (D) 26, Other 4 Outside MOE
Comment:  So Moran got to 70%.  This is an OK prediction, of course.

Governor
Prediction: Brownback (R) 62, Holland (D) 35, Other 3
Actual:  Brownback (R) 63, Holland (D) 32, Other 5 Outside MOE
Comment:  Outside MOE in the prediction, but that's fine here.  Race was over before it began, of course.

House - Ranked Races
Predictions:
KS-03* (to GOP) Correct
Comment: Over when Moore retired.  Moore probably wouldn't have survived anyways, so there.

Kentucky
Senate
Prediction: Paul (R) 56, Conway (D) 44
Actual: Paul (R) 56, Conway (D) 44 Within MOE, EXACT MARGIN, EXACT RESULT
Comment: Called this one exactly from the start... 

House - Ranked Races
KY-03 (stays Dem) Correct
KY-06 (stays Dem) Correct
Comment:  Chandler barely survived, but a good prediction nonetheless.  Given the circumstances, Yarmuth's performance was quite good.

Louisiana
Senate
Prediction: Vitter (R) 54, Melancon (D) 41, Other 5
Actual: Vitter (R) 57, Melancon (D) 38, Other 3 Outside MOE
Comment: Melancon even underperformed my rather low expectations.

House - Ranked Races
LA-02 (to DEM) Correct
LA-03* (to GOP) Correct
Comment:  Who said that LA-02 would be remotely competitive?