Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[Lunar]

Considering Kirk's continued fundraising advantage, do you now consider IL to be closer after what we just saw in MA?  I mean, if the Democrats couldn't count on the MA machine...

[Lunar]

with the damages to white working-class voters in  MA, I wonder if PA is actually Lean (R) until the Democrats can show some strength with the type

[Lunar]

This isn't addressed to Sam, but I guess I'll post it here.

How's Hodes doing in New Hampshire?  He has never been a strong fundraiser, but Ayotte hasn't seemed as strong in real life as she sounded on paper either.

[Lunar]

This isn't addressed to Sam, but I guess I'll post it here.

How's Hodes doing in New Hampshire?  He has never been a strong fundraiser, but Ayotte hasn't seemed as strong in real life as she sounded on paper either.

Hodes is about as close as you can come to having Generic Democrat running for office. So all Ayotte has to do to win is avoid making gaffes.

and win her primary

[Lunar]

Indeed, it just has never seemed like Hodes will win while Gillibrand, Boxer, and Feingold are  still threatened...but we've heard so little from the state, so the national media hasn't really paid too much attention to this race, or even Hode's votes.  I haven't ever seen an article discussing how Hode's voted, while pretty much every other senatorial or gubernatorial Congressman in a competitive state has generated plenty of media coverage.

[Lunar]

Campbell really isn't a strong campaigner.  I met one of the staffers that worked with him, and he gets weird ideas in his head.  Like, he really wanted to make his last senate race all about the illegality of the Clinton war in Kosovo, and couldn't comprehend that no one in California cared about that.   I like Campbell a lot fwiw, and I view him as the most intellectually honest GOP politician in CA, and a good person (he also taught at my university)...it's just Boxer has a lot of money and a lot of talent.   

Boxer has money and a great campaign staff in California, and the GOP really hasn't been making any headway in CA as far as I can tell in the non-white communities, which are only growing day by day (although will be less represented than they were in 08 obvioustown).

I really disagree with Torie that the Governor's race should be considered lean-R.  In an anti-incumbent season, with a retiring, severely unpopular Republican governor in a Democratic state, Whitman still has a large hill to climb.  Brown's prospects went up a lot when he completely avoided a primary challenge and could tailer all of his platform to the general election.  

[Lunar]

Doesn't that swing both ways though with the Hispanic name?   Those kooky rurals and all?

[Lunar]

Doesn't that swing both ways though with the Hispanic name?   Those kooky rurals and all?

The rurals out there are mostly Hispanic/Mexican in origin.  If you separate Medina County (Uvalde, white and GOP-dominated) from the numbers, nationally it's probably close to 60-40 Dem at the Prez level in 2008 and even more Hispanic.

Fine, whatevsky, I meant the group you defined as "historically Democratic voters" [pretty much the most PC term I can imagine for them ]

[Lunar]

I still don't trust Hawaii polling, but with the DCCC pulling out and all - should be Lean R.

Basically my feeling.  I would probably be the least surprised person in the room if something crazy happened and 'busa ended up winning.  But if they're giving up completely, I see no reason to hold out hope.

[Lunar]

FL-Sen:  Crist is getting a bit more institutional Dem support, which means his chances increase.  Of course, he's also hiring Bloomberg people, which probably cancels that out.  His position changes are getting pretty amusing to the unbiased observer.

lol, we've been noticing the same thing.  But SKD Knickerbocker includes some NY powerhouses like Jennifer Cunningham  (think Cuomo) and is partnered with a Washington powerhouse named Anita Dunn

Shouldn't be surprising that the most talented people left who would be willing to work with Crist are of the Bloomberg/Lieberman crowd.  

Crist's leftward lurch has surprised me.  I'm not sure who the hell is running Meek's campaign, but they are idiots unless they start spending money RIGHT NOW to improve his name recognition, or the Democratic establishment, obsessed with over-interpreting said poll numbers this early in the cycle, will abandon him.  Meek also needs Bill Clinton to do more than just raise money for him, and Bill Clinton is waisting his time campaigning in Arkansas anyway. 

[Lunar]

Crist's leftward lurch has surprised me.

Why?  I thought it rather obvious that was going to happen.

I guess I expected his support to collapse, rather than reaching for oxygen among Democrats who have never heard of Meek.  Of course, I guess that would have been obvious had I thought about it more.  It's depressing how many Democrats here are willing to get behind Crist, and we're made up of hyper-informed voters.  I'd vote for Rubio before Crist.

Either way -- why flip flop on DADT?  I don't see the reason.

[Lunar]

Another danger for Dems with the Crist games is that the Dem turnout may crater, "sinking" the ship and other up-ballot candidates as well as creating big issues for the various vulnerable Congressfolk.

Would have been better if you said "Sink"-ing.

[Lunar]

Lunar, Kendrick Meek is a loser. He would be a loser if Charlie Crist had never run for Senate, or if Charlie Crist had never stepped foot in/been born in Florida. Please do not blame Kendrick Meek's loserdom on Charlie Crist. The only thing Kendrick Meek may be successful at is handing the Florida Senate race to the tea baggers.

Get behind Mike Tyson then, not Charlie Crist.

[Lunar]

Strickland is looking safer since his impressive fundraising totals, his NRA endorsement, and a series of missteps by Kasich -- making fun of Strickland's rural roots and publicly saying that you're not engaged in keeping Lebron James in Ohio?  He's in damage controlmode

[Lunar]

OR-Sen:  Wyden is just on the edge of going to Likely R, scary as it might sound to Dems.

Scary indeed

[Lunar]

No, whoever his opponent is [I can't quite remember] is likely to be your next Senator from Oregon.

Okay I'll stop now.

[Lunar]

Any particular reason why Rhode Island isn't lean Independent?

"Moderate Party" self-funder & Caprio is a strong candidate.

[Lunar]

SENATE

Current Prediction: GOP +5 to 7 seats
(if wave occurs with this map set-up = GOP +7 to 9 seats)

(updated 7/22/2010)

Symbols for Changes
! Republican movement
# Democratic movement

Safe D
Hawaii
Maryland
New York (Schumer)
Oregon

Likely D
Connecticut*
New York (Gillibrand)

Lean D
California
Washington

Toss-up
Colorado (D)
Florida* (R)
Illinois* (D)
Missouri* (R)
Nevada (D)
Ohio* (R)
Pennsylvania* (D)
Wisconsin (D)!

Lean R
Indiana* (D)
Kentucky*
New Hampshire*
North Carolina

Likely R
Arizona
Arkansas (D)
Delaware* (D)
Louisiana

Safe R
Alabama
Alaska
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas*
Oklahoma
North Dakota* (D)!
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah*

I guess I largely agree with this list.  I'd put Wisconsin at Lean D, Arizona is Safe R, but those are quibbles

Agree with the conflicting signals on Delaware and Louisiana. 

[Lunar]

Shrader's district is only D+1, but still a bit surprising? 

Anyway, Sam's list House list here seems really solid.  At least I looked for every race in which I am opinionated about and completely agreed with its ranking

[Lunar]

Why move Connecticut Senate to lean Dem now?

You mean besides the body count?