Showing great things for Democrats? Hardly. In 2008, the Clark County Early voters were 52.0% registered Democrats, 30.6% Republicans and 17.4% independents. If my math is right, Obama ended up winning about 64% of the two-party Clark County early vote.
So far this cycle, Clark County Early voters are 46.3% Democrats, 38.0% Republicans and 15.6% independents. Democrats are down 5.7 points from 2008, Republicans up 7.4 points and Independents down 1.8 points - a major swing away from the Democrats in the early voting composition. And if my math is right, in 2008, Obama did about 9 points better in the Clark County Early Vote than the election day tally. If a similar pattern persists in 2010, Harry Reid might not even win Clark County, let alone the rest of the state.
Edited to add: This really belongs on the Early Voting thread, not cluttering Sam's thread. I've copied it there. Please continue the discussion on the Early Vote thread.
I think that it looks like Reid will narrowly lose at this point, but there's no way he loses Clark County.
