Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[minionofmidas]

Just for my own amusement, I went checking the theory that Sam Spade is actually Nate Silver.
Sam's current House predictions, with Silver's current percentages for a hold.

DEMS (GOP Targets) (90 seats/20 Watch List)

Likely R (7 seats)
AR-02*  3
CO-04   12
LA-03*  10
NY-29*   2
TN-06*   2
TX-17     5
VA-05     7

Lean R (21 seats)
AR-01* 18
AZ-05   26
FL-08   32
FL-24   16
IL-11     4
IN-08*   8
KS-03*  7
MI-01*  12
MS-01   15
ND-AL    19
NH-02*  38
OH-01     7
OH-15    10
OH-16    20
PA-03     17
PA-07*   24
PA-08    30
PA-11    19
TN-08*  16
VA-02     21
WA-03*  18

Toss-up/Tilt R (10 seats)
AZ-01   15
AZ-08   52
FL-02   22
MD-01  17
MI-07   33
NM-02  31
PA-10   18
SC-05   51
WI-07* 23
WI-08   20

Pure Toss-up (14 seats)
AL-02   29
CA-11  45
CO-03  46
GA-08   39
IL-14    45
IL-17    59
IN-09    43
MA-10* 76
NV-03   44
NY-19   31
NY-24   42
OH-18   66
TX-23    62
WV-01* 44

Toss-up/Tilt D (8 seats)
FL-22   47
NC-08  48
NH-01  16
NJ-03   64
NY-01   81
OH-13  91
SD-AL   29
WA-02  71

Lean D (20 seats)
CA-47   95
CT-04   87
GA-02   78
IA-03   53
ID-01   68
IN-02   79
KY-06   59
MI-09   70
MO-04  59
NC-07   48
NC-11   73
NM-01   86
NY-20   75
NY-23   33
PA-12   52
OR-05   64
TN-04   42
VA-09   79
VA-11   82
WI-03   89

Likely D (10 seats)
CA-20   94
CO-07   88
CT-05   67
KY-03   95
MN-01  96
NY-13   81
PA-04   84
PA-17   93
WA-09  95
WV-03  77
 
Watch List (20 seats)
AZ-07   99
AR-04   93
CA-18   100
GA-12   100
IA-01    98
IA-02    93
IL-08    81
ME-01   98
ME-02   87
MS-04   61
MO-03   96
NC-02   94
NJ-12    99
NY-25    95
OH-06   60
OK-02   96
OR-01   96
RI-01*  94
UT-02   88

Seats not listed by Sam with hold percentages below 99.5% in Silver
NY-22 99
MI-15 99
MN-07 98
MN-08 98
NC-04 96
MS-02 99
TX-27 99
NM-03 99

GOP (DEM Targets) (9 seats/9 Watch List)

Likely D (1 seat)
LA-02    14

Lean D (1 seat)
DE-AL*   8

Pure Toss-up (2 seats)
HI-01    36
IL-10*  46

Lean R (2 seats)
CA-03   85
FL-25*  85

Likely R (3 seats)
PA-06   93
PA-15   92
WA-08  94

Watch List (9 seats)
AL-05*  97
AZ-03*  98
CA-45    98
KS-04*  100
MI-03*  98
MN-06   99
NE-02    98
OH-12   99
SC-02   100

I guess where completeness' sake I'll include a list of further R seats below 99.5... even though it's probably wholly pointless:

IN-03 98
FL-12 94
CA-44 99


Considerable overlap there. More than with some other lists I've seen.

Oh yeah, there are 138 utterly safe D seats by these two combined counts (140 D100 shares minus GA12 and CA18, which I'd agree are among the oddest on the lists.) There are a few more I'd probably subtract, all things considered, but only about a dozen.
 

[minionofmidas]

Haven't updated it in a while, Lewis, so you're placement is a little stale.  Will probably get to it tomorrow.

Yah, there's a handful of seats where Silver's figures changed considerably with his last update and your placements fit his former numbers more closely than his current ones.

[minionofmidas]

Btw, I'm thinking about changing House (and maybe Senate/Governor) for the last couple of weeks to...

Lost (10 or so)
Lean R (20 or so)
Tossup/Lean R (10 or so)
Pure Tossup (10 or so)
Tossup/Lean D (10 or so)
Lean D (30 or so)
Watch (20-30 or so)

Since I just did a rough count of app. 28-30 seats where I would be surprised if the Dems held on and app.30-32 where I wouldn't be surprised either way... that sounds about right.

[minionofmidas]

You have 27 seats in lean and 33 in watch list, yet the total for either is given as 30.

Also, PA-03 is listed twice but it seems clear that it belongs in Gone, not lean R.

[minionofmidas]

There was an internal poll for Rep. Russ Carnahan's Republican opponent, showing Rep. Carnahan's lead shrunk to 9.

Uh, that's the kind of poll result that you move a seat from Lean D to Safe D for. Not the other way round.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wouldn't give anything on such rumours (or more frequently "rumours".) That goes to the poster you replied to as well, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Senate
AK-SEN:  Miller has really, really sucked as a candidate.  And I've never seen a Dem overpoll in Alaska.

You mean underpoll.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not even that much is clear.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quite.