Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Has this RCP House horse race utility that I just discovered hit anyone else's radar screen? It shows something like a 45 seat GOP gain, splitting the tossups. Some of the races have commentary to them.

MA-10 as a toss-up?  That's news to me, but hey, whatever, a little bit of optimism is always nice.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I find myself in concurrence here with your calls in MA -- it's almost unthinkable that the GOP could be favored in MA-10 and yet Patrick could be favored for re-election, but here we are.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looking over the list to comment on the few seats I feel "expert" about.

• NJ-03 should probably be toss-up/lean R at this point. Clear movement to Runyan here (or, more accurately, away from Adler).
• NJ-07 should be watch listed. Little ain't the best, but polling has it close, and her former primary opponent just dropped $100,000 in 501 (C) (4) ads. This area of the state showed some surprisingly strong movement to Christie in 2009 (Middlesex County, in particular), with the size of Republican legislative losses here getting smaller with each passing cycle.
• NJ-12 is probably going to be lean D if we ever see another poll out of there is apparently in the exact right spot -- watch list.
• MA-04 probably deserves watch listing. I can't believe that Bielat has enough money to be advertising, and Frank's ads -- ironically -- are a bit limp wristed.
• MA-06 -- just right.
• MA-10 should probably slide back to toss-up/lean D.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, and I might even watchlist MA-05 (Tsongas). This is a weird year in Massachusetts. Every Democrat is scrambling and on air with brutally negative attacks calling their opponents crazy. Quite literally.

They're just not good at this "actual campaigning" thing. I got a mailer from Rep. Neal, and I'm about 50 miles outside his district.