Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[muon2]

What is jelling out there I wonder on the macro level that is causing the wave within the past few weeks to become considerably bigger as time goes on? Is it basically one or two major factors (HCR and the economy), or just excessive bleeding due to a thousand cuts? And I thought passage of HCR was supposed to help the Dems at the margins (that was the CV). What happened - at least so far?

I don't follow.

I assume he's referring to pundits moving seats in ways that favor the GOP since HCR passed. Many thought that failure to pass HCR was the larger concern going into the fall, but the trend continues in the GOP direction despite the legislative success.

[muon2]

I've updated Senate and Governor.  House will come this weekend.

I'm very close to making a few changes that I note below.
Senate
NY-Sen (Gillibrand): Am very close to putting this one in Safe.  Probably will next time.
CT-Sen:  I want to see what happens post-primary, but so long as Blumenthal stays safely above 50%, you can expect it in Safe soon enough.
WA-Sen:  We need more polls, though I am pretty close to putting into Toss-up.
WI-Sen:  I put it into toss-up because enough evidence (for me) has been provided that the race is probably within MOE (even though Wisconsin polls and summer polls suck!)
AR-Sen:  Lincoln is not going to put into Safe anytime soon because of the amount of money she has.  Polling-wise, it would fit of course.
DE-Sen:  Another poll like the Rasmussen iteration and it'll go into Lean R.  I wonder how much effect the primary is having here that will resolve itself prior to the election.
LA-Sen:  Part of me wants to put this into Lean R and part doesn't.  I really need more polling.
ND-Sen:  I decided to put Hoeven in Safe b/c nothing has been presented to me that says otherwise, even for an open seat.
Governor
AR-Gov:  Beebe's numbers are likely having to do with a bad Dem year.  He's not in any danger unless he falls below 50% consistently, of course.
NY-Gov:  I'm putting Cuomo in safe - though don't be surprised if the numbers being produced are both a top and bottom.
CO-Gov:  I want to see how the McInnis thing plays out before making a change.  Right now, Dems should be reaping benefits.  We'll see.
ME-Gov:  Just where I believe the race is although I'd love to have more polling.
MD-Gov:  Am close to putting in toss-up.
CA-Gov:  Moving to toss-up because the polling says so.
FL-Gov:  We'll see what happens - but moving to toss-up seems reasonable for now.
GA-Gov:  Moving to toss-up and reevaluating after the runoff.
IL-Gov:  Closer to going into tossup, but not there yet - need another tied poll or poll showing Quinn ahead.
TX-Gov:  See above.

You may want to update the "updated" date at the top of the most for these races. It still points at May, and a casual observer won't notice the edit date at the bottom or the posts at the end of the thread.

[muon2]

Well, then either you think the poll sucks, or the Dem will recover, no? I mean 11% margin is pretty big, and might be hard to explain away, even in an internal, unless it is like that Washington State poll, that has now been exposed as gigo.

I think there is always a presumption of suckage with internal polls until there is some confirmation of some element of it. There is zero quality control and they could be swinging for the fences to bring in money and attention. For confirmation, I'd look for a neutral poll showing Obama's rating in the toilet in this district, or Halvorson's rating in the toilet, or Halvorson tied with Kinzinger, or some other reason Halvorson should be doing so badly against an unknown generic R other than that she's a Democrat, which isn't enough in this district.

Of course if the internal poll showed him losing narrowly and with 31% of the vote, that would be an indicator that the numbers for himself are bad. There's still the potential he's doing well, but that's it.

Well one clue today comes from Halvorson's side.

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