Will North Carolina be more Democratic than Ohio, Florida in 2012?

[DemocratsVictory2008]

It may seem a bit absurd now but NC has maybe the biggest generational divide in the country. Obama won 74% of the 18-29 vote in 2008 and even 56% of whites in this group. McCain won all other age groups easily but one can only wonder if the state has an inevitable trend toward the dems, unlike ohio and florida which trended slightly GOP from 2000-08

[Smash255]

North Carolina is no question trending Democratic, and I think it will continue.  As far as Ohio & Florida are concerned I think NC has a good chance of becoming more Democratic than Florida in 2012, and while Ohio is possible, perhaps not as much.  Obama's FL margin was a little over 2 points larger than his NC margin as opposed to Ohio in which it was 4 points above his NC margin.  Florida may trend slightly Republican, though not much, but it could be enough that NC's Dem trends might eclipse it.  Ohio could move slightly GOP as well, but the Dem trends in the Columbus metro area might reduce that a bit and might keep Ohio from becoming more GOP than NC.