For members from the UK....

[Phony Moderate]

Which constituency did you live in and what is your prediction for it at the next election?

Mine will be Rugby from the next election, it's currently Rugby and Kenilworth. Kenilworth is a pretty strongly Tory town, but considering the Tories gained the seat in 1979 when it was still just Rugby, i can't see Labour winning it.

[k-onmmunist]

Hazel Grove
Liberal, Feb 1974-Oct 1974
Conservative, Oct 1974-1997
Liberal Democrat, 1997-

It's been a close one in the past, and I think the Tories will take it back this time. Labour don't stand a chance round here.

Other parties that have run:
Greens (1987)
Natural Law (1992)
UKIP (1997, 2001, 2005)
Humanists (1997)
Referendum Party (1997)

So far, only the three main parties have confirmed they will be running next year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Currently Conwy - which is abolished by boundary changes. Bangor is being moved to the new Arfon constituency. Notionally it's a knife-edge Labour/Plaid marginal, though Plaid shouldn't have much trouble winning it this time round as Betty Williams (who would have had a very good chance of pulling through) isn't running again. The margin will depend on turnout - the Plaid vote here always turns out, the Labour vote is fickle.

[Harry Hayfield]

Ceredigion - Too close to call between Liberal Democrat and Plaid Cymru

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

At the time of the last election I voted in Bury South but now I live in Bolton West.  According to Rallings and Thrasher this is the seat the Conservatives need to gain to secure an overall majority of 1. 

The 2005 result was Lab 17239 C 15175 LD 7241 UKIP 524 Veritas 290 Xtraordinary People Party 74, which gives a Labour majority of 5.1%.  However, the boundary changes bring the town of Atherton into the constituency and transfer the strongly Conservative area of Over Hulton into the safe Labour seat of Bolton South East, so the revised Bolton West is much better for Labour.  I would not like to call this one!

[afleitch]

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Labour hold until the end of time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Labour hold until the end of time.

Presumably the scariest man in the Commons is standing again?

[afleitch]

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Labour hold until the end of time.

Presumably the scariest man in the Commons is standing again?

I think so. Scratch a bit under the surface and he's apparently quite easy to 'get at' if you know what riles him

[Harry Hayfield]

At the time of the last election I voted in Bury South but now I live in Bolton West.  According to Rallings and Thrasher this is the seat the Conservatives need to gain to secure an overall majority of 1.

That's a weird boundary change (to go from Bolton town to Bury town)

[minionofmidas]

At the time of the last election I voted in Bury South but now I live in Bolton West.  According to Rallings and Thrasher this is the seat the Conservatives need to gain to secure an overall majority of 1.

That's a weird boundary change (to go from Bolton town to Bury town)

That's a move, not a boundary change.

[doktorb]

Preston. So go on, guess

[Novelty]

Leeds Central.  It's a boring place where Labour is guaranteed of a victory no matter the vote.

[You kip if you want to...]

Leeds Central.  It's a boring place where Labour is guaranteed of a victory no matter the vote.

Surely that's a good thing.

[Serenity Now]

Brighton Pavilion - the one the Greens might win

[You kip if you want to...]

Brighton Pavilion - the one the Greens might win

I hope they do.

[JoeBrayson]

Keighley. My prediction is a Conservative gain ranging from 2000 to 5000 majority.

[Peter]

My electoral history is quite long now:

At the 2005 election I lived in Oxford East. In the intervening time I lived in Oxford West & Abingdon, Reading East, and I now live in Henley-on-Thames, where I should still be living come election day. I also maintain my link to Mole Valley through my parents.

Mole Valley - remains strongly Tory
Henley - ditto
Reading East - consolidates as a Tory seat, to about a 5000 majority
Oxford East  - Lib Dem gain from Labour, due to both national losses and the boundary changes which move the pro-LD city centre wards into the seat.
OXWAB - Tory gain from LD - the loss of city centre wards doesn't help Evan Harris and a strong turnout in the Abingdon wards will push the Tory candidate over the line by a few hundred.

The only other competitive constituency that I retain a link to is Crawley, and I think we can all predict the end of Laura Moffat quite safely.

[k-onmmunist]

Brighton Pavilion - the one the Greens might win

I hope they do.

Thirded!

[Psychic Octopus]

Keighley. My prediction is a Conservative gain ranging from 2000 to 5000 majority.

Welcome to the forum, btw.

[JoeBrayson]

Thanks.

[Harry Hayfield]

Do we have any members from Leicestershire North West? If so, could they post articles from the Leicestershire media relating to David Taylor, as the BBC is reporting that he died yesterday.

[Silent Hunter]

Thanks.

Welcome to the forum.

[minionofmidas]

Do we have any members from Leicestershire North West? If so, could they post articles from the Leicestershire media relating to David Taylor, as the BBC is reporting that he died yesterday.

Seems to have been an all round great guy. RIP.

Also, he was standing down anyways. And might have lost if he stood - it's one of those regionally polarized, turnout-sensitive, only-Labour-and-Tories-matter areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems to have been an all round great guy. RIP.

Yeah, a real FF.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

More or less, though the BNP have done quite well in local elections in the area (it's close to Leicester, obviously).

[You kip if you want to...]

Brighton Pavilion - the one the Greens might win

I hope they do.

Thirded!

Brighton Pavilion Poll:
GRN 35% (+14)
CON 27% (+4)
LAB 25% (-13)
LD 11% (-5)

From ICM

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/29/what-does-the-brighton-poll-say-about-tactical-voting/