Bayh (I) v. Obama (D) v. Palin (R)

[SPC]

Why does everyone think Palin would win? She currently trails Obama by about 20 points. There is no way Bayh would get anywhere near that, not even double digits is likely. And a good chunk of his vote would come from anti-Obama people who could never vote for Palin anyway. I have a tough time seeing him eat into the Democratic base, reminds me of that "Joe Lieberman as McCain's running mate would bring over TONS of Democrats because so many Democrats love him!" garbage.

It'd look something like 1980 in reverse with Bayh being John Anderson.

IIRC, the last PPP poll only had her behind by 8 points.

[milhouse24]

Wow, who called Bayh out on this?  How prescient.  He's definitely running in 2016.

he's made himself a quiter like Palin and he didn't even have a lawsuit filed against him every day. If he wanted a future he should have named himself the reformer of Washington and not be afraid to say no to the Democrats, instead he quit and plays the pointing finger games

Does Anyone Think Bayh will still run in 2016???
He could run for Indiana Governor in 2012 and improve his ground game.  I think however, that Democrats would not embrace him in the primaries, especially due to his Senate retirement. 

If you are a Democrat, would you vote for Bayh in the 2016 primary?

[Poundingtherock]

SPC,

7 points to be exact.

[Dan the Roman]

With those PV results I actually think Obama would win the electoral college.Because of the solidly of Obama's base, and Palin's weakness with non-evangelical and business Republicans, Obama would probably be very well positioned for a three-way race. Quite frankly, with his black support, he is not going below 42-43% in most southern states, and his likely-hood of peeling something like Georgia off 43-42-14 in such a situation goes up. Ditto for Florida where liberal jews+blacks+hispanics should get him to 45-46%.

[memphis]

Yeah, if you have two people from one side running, it helps the other side. Hardly news. Check out 1912.

[they don't love you like i love you]

With those PV results I actually think Obama would win the electoral college.Because of the solidly of Obama's base, and Palin's weakness with non-evangelical and business Republicans, Obama would probably be very well positioned for a three-way race. Quite frankly, with his black support, he is not going below 42-43% in most southern states, and his likely-hood of peeling something like Georgia off 43-42-14 in such a situation goes up. Ditto for Florida where liberal jews+blacks+hispanics should get him to 45-46%.

Another good point. But Bayh isn't dropping Obama below those numbers in the south.

Really since Bayh has voted almost all of Obama's agenda albeit with some whining, what is he going to campaign on? "Radical centrist" third party campaigns don't win based on Moderate Heroism, Jesse Ventura and Ross Perot picked up on their own issues and focused on those instead of the type of Moderate Hero stuff that is all Bayh could run on. What's he going to campaign on, "There should be no public option but there should be other health care reforms but Obama's go too far and are evil socialism"? That basically is his position, and it pleases neither the right or left.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bayh wouldn't do any better than Perot in '96. Obama wins.

[TheGlobalizer]

Obama would win comfortably.  Bayh would get 3-5%, tops.

He deserves to get more, but I think people would go with the incumbent Democrat endorsed by the Democratic Party over the turncoat or the sexy nutjob.  I don't see Bayh having the bona fides to pull off an independent bid.