the economy stays in the tank and the situation in Afghanistan is much worse. The unemployment is above 10 %
discuss
If Bloomberg and Hagel push an explicitly pro-gay marriage (Hagel would have to flip) and pro-Afghanistan withdrawal message (Bloomberg would have to flip), Palin/Romney win easily.
Palin/Romney 45%
Obama/Biden 40%
Bloomberg/Hagel 14%
Palin/Romney take Pa, Michigan, VA, Co, FL, OH, IN, NC and perhaps NV.
Wishful thinking. 10% unemployment is unstable. It goes down in a recovery or skyrockets in a double-dip
recessionDepression.