Blue State Mason/Dixons

[The Vorlon]

A small bird left these in my email.  This small bird has been 100% accurate in the past.

Last year my stock portfolio went up 24.3% - so it will go up 24.3% this year too... right..?

The "Blue" Mason Dixons

Pennsylvania

Kerry 46
Bush 45

Oregon

Kerry 46
Bush 45

Iowa

Bush 49
Kerry 43

Wisconsin

Bush 45
Kerry 45

New Mexico 

Bush 49,
Kerry 44

Michigan 

Kerry 47
Bush 46

Minnesota 

Bush 47
Kerry 45

All Polls 625 LVs - Oct 15-18th

[minionofmidas]

Iowa

Bush 49
Kerry 43

Whoa! Sheet.
Going by these MD polls (todays + yesterdays) the election looks almost over...

[Sam Spade]

Aren't they also going to poll Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico?

And where are you getting this info from?  

[kelpie]

Iowa

Bush 49
Kerry 43

Whoa! Sheet.
Going by these MD polls (todays + yesterdays) the election looks almost over...

I wish!  Almost none of the M-D polls were outside of the MOE.

[elcorazon]

Iowa

Bush 49
Kerry 43

Whoa! Sheet.
Going by these MD polls (todays + yesterdays) the election looks almost over...

Let us not forget:
1. some, even well done polls are wrong.
2. even if correct, they can be off a point or two, which in some of these cases would alter the leader.
3. there's still a couple weeks till the election
4. All have some number of undecideds which could break more to Kerry than Bush.

If I remember correctly the polls basically show Bush winning the Bush states from 2000 and Kerry winning the Gore states from 2000, except that he's tied in Wisconsin and trailing in Iowa (maybe that's the one that blew up?).

If all of them are correct, Kerry would be at 253 (assuming he picks up WI); that would still mean what we've been saying for months:  win OH or FL and Kerry wins; with the margins in those polls, and the other factors I mentioned above, that's not too farfetched.  Keep the faith.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kerry doesn't need Iowa to win if he can take Wisconsin and Ohio, where he was only down one in M-D yesterday.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

BTW, shouldn't there be a couple more polls?

[dougrhess]

The problem is that it might be safe to assume that Kerry only wins half of the states that appear tied. Only if there is a systematic shift in the results vs the polls (i.e., they are all off by one point in Bushes favor in each state). Assuming the bias is more random, don't know if it is since the same methods might produce equal bias in direction if not magnitude, this is bad for Kerry. However, 12 days is a lot of time.

[Sam Spade]

All of these points are valid and good, but simply put the scenario is this:

If Bush wins OH and FL, it's pretty much all over with.  All of these other states would simply be icing on the cake.

If Kerry can win either OH or FL, it causes Bush problems he can overcome, but the chances aren't that good.  The problems are greater with the loss of Florida than Ohio.

All other talk is sort of pointless now.

[dougrhess]

BTW, shouldn't there be a couple more polls?

Vorlon's doing a strip tease version of releasing poll data. He wants you to keep buying drinks here and slipping him bills.

[kelpie]

I look forward to a big change in electoral-vote.com...

No?

[elcorazon]

All of these points are valid and good, but simply put the scenario is this:

If Bush wins OH and FL, it's pretty much all over with.  All of these other states would simply be icing on the cake.

If Kerry can win either OH or FL, it causes Bush problems he can overcome, but the chances aren't that good.  The problems are greater with the loss of Florida than Ohio.

All other talk is sort of pointless now.

I agree.  I was just pointing out that it's not "almost over" based on these results, although they are generally good news for Bush.

[Alcon]

Kerry +1 in Oregon is a lot closer than we've seen, not counting the nutso Riley Research reuslt.

[Erc]

If the Republicans get lucky (big GOTV + apathy amongst Democrats + big Cobb vote), I think they have a shot at OR.


No data on Minnesota / New Mexico / Maine ?

[ATFFL]

Kerry +1 in Oregon is a lot closer than we've seen, not counting the nutso Riley Research reuslt.

Mason Dixon once showed Bush up 4.  Either a 1 in 20 or a sign that they are better polling the state than others.

More likely the 1 in 20, but it is probably closer than some polls indicate.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I doubt Bush is that far ahead in Iowa, but if Wisconsin is tied and Kerry wins it as well as Ohio I don't care.

[The Vorlon]

What these polls tell us is that all of these states are very close.

Bush up 6% in Iowa is a bit surprising.

These are the last 4 Iowa polls:

Mason Dixon - Bush +6
ARG - TIE
Strategic Vision (R) - Bush +3
Chicago Tribune-  Bush +2

A simple unthinking average of these 4 gives Bush +2.75

Mason-Dixon is I think universally regarded as a very good pollster.

But you never ever believe any one poll.

A poll from a good firm does not mean it is right - it means it has a pretty decent chance of being right

The last 4 polls range from Tied, and ARG is been a bit Bush unfriendly this year, up to Mason-Dixon showing Bush up 6, with two stops in between.

I would read these, taking everything into account, as perhaps a modest Bush lead, but "Tossup" is not a crazy call either.

[AuH2O]

Bush may only be up 4 or so in Iowa, but he also is up more than 1 in Ohio-- the assumption people are making is that Ohio is a perfect dead heat, which is not the case; it's close but leans Bush in a PV tie nationally.

The polls are only bad news for Kerry in so far as it confirms he is losing, and by a significant if small amount (3-4 points).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't know...I think the latest round of Mason-Dixons reflect a closer race than that.

Compare the latest M-D results with the 2000 election:

State     2000         M-D             Diff
FL         TIED          GOP +3      GOP +3
CO        GOP +8    GOP +6      Dem +2
MO       GOP +3     GOP +5      GOP +2
NV        GOP +4     GOP +10    GOP +6
NH        GOP +1     GOP +3      GOP +2
NC        GOP +13   GOP +8      Dem +5
OH        GOP +4     GOP +1      Dem +3
WV       GOP +6      GOP +5      Dem +1
IA          TIED          GOP +6      GOP +6
OR         TIED         Dem +1      Dem +1
PA         Dem +4     Dem +1     GOP +3
WI          TIED          TIED           TIED

Six show a gain for Republicans, five a gain for Democrats. 
The mean is a gain for Bush of less than 0.5%.
So I don't see at all how these show a Bush lead of 3-4% at all.  It's more likely that they show a popular vote tied, seeing as how Bush lost the popular vote by about 0.5% in 2000.

[Sam Spade]

Rumor from another site:

The other Mason-Dixons will be:

New Mexico:  Bush 49, Kerry 44
Michigan:  Kerry 47, Bush 46
Minnesota:  Bush 47, Kerry 45

Once again, this is just a rumor.  You will be returned to your scheduled programming shortly.

[MODU]

I don't know...I think the latest round of Mason-Dixons reflect a closer race than that.

Compare the latest M-D results with the 2000 election:

State     2000         M-D             Diff
FL         TIED          GOP +3      GOP +3
CO        GOP +8    GOP +6      Dem +2
MO       GOP +3     GOP +5      GOP +2
NV        GOP +4     GOP +10    GOP +6
NH        GOP +1     GOP +3      GOP +2
NC        GOP +13   GOP +8      Dem +5
OH        GOP +4     GOP +1      Dem +3
WV       GOP +6      GOP +5      Dem +1
IA          TIED          GOP +6      GOP +6
OR         TIED         Dem +1      Dem +1
PA         Dem +4     Dem +1     GOP +3
WI          TIED          TIED           TIED

Six show a gain for Republicans, five a gain for Democrats. 
The mean is a gain for Bush of less than 0.5%.
So I don't see at all how these show a Bush lead of 3-4% at all.  It's more likely that they show a popular vote tied, seeing as how Bush lost the popular vote by about 0.5% in 2000.

One thing your listing there show is, except for one state, MD polls showed the winner of each state.  That's pretty good considering how close things were last round.

[Nym90]

I don't know...I think the latest round of Mason-Dixons reflect a closer race than that.

Compare the latest M-D results with the 2000 election:

State     2000         M-D             Diff
FL         TIED          GOP +3      GOP +3
CO        GOP +8    GOP +6      Dem +2
MO       GOP +3     GOP +5      GOP +2
NV        GOP +4     GOP +10    GOP +6
NH        GOP +1     GOP +3      GOP +2
NC        GOP +13   GOP +8      Dem +5
OH        GOP +4     GOP +1      Dem +3
WV       GOP +6      GOP +5      Dem +1
IA          TIED          GOP +6      GOP +6
OR         TIED         Dem +1      Dem +1
PA         Dem +4     Dem +1     GOP +3
WI          TIED          TIED           TIED

Six show a gain for Republicans, five a gain for Democrats. 
The mean is a gain for Bush of less than 0.5%.
So I don't see at all how these show a Bush lead of 3-4% at all.  It's more likely that they show a popular vote tied, seeing as how Bush lost the popular vote by about 0.5% in 2000.

One thing your listing there show is, except for one state, MD polls showed the winner of each state.  That's pretty good considering how close things were last round.

Those are the actual 2000 results, not the final M-D polls in 2000.

[MODU]

I'm sorry.  I thought he was posting the 2000 M-D final poll figures and comparing them with the actual 2000 election results. 

[TheOldLine]

Bush may only be up 4 or so in Iowa, but he also is up more than 1 in Ohio-- the assumption people are making is that Ohio is a perfect dead heat, which is not the case; it's close but leans Bush in a PV tie nationally.

The polls are only bad news for Kerry in so far as it confirms he is losing, and by a significant if small amount (3-4 points).

Mysterpollster has made a good case that Bush is doin -1 his national number in Ohio right now.

I wouldn't be so sure.

TheOldLine

[Nym90]

I'm sorry.  I thought he was posting the 2000 M-D final poll figures and comparing them with the actual 2000 election results. 

Nope, those are the current Mason Dixon polls. It would seem that he is trying to extrapolate an estimate on the current national popular vote from the Mason Dixon polls (since M-D doesn't do a national poll of course.)