Blue State Mason/Dixons

[Nym90]

I don't know...I think the latest round of Mason-Dixons reflect a closer race than that.

Compare the latest M-D results with the 2000 election:

State     2000         M-D             Diff
FL         TIED          GOP +3      GOP +3
CO        GOP +8    GOP +6      Dem +2
MO       GOP +3     GOP +5      GOP +2
NV        GOP +4     GOP +10    GOP +6
NH        GOP +1     GOP +3      GOP +2
NC        GOP +13   GOP +8      Dem +5
OH        GOP +4     GOP +1      Dem +3
WV       GOP +6      GOP +5      Dem +1
IA          TIED          GOP +6      GOP +6
OR         TIED         Dem +1      Dem +1
PA         Dem +4     Dem +1     GOP +3
WI          TIED          TIED           TIED

Six show a gain for Republicans, five a gain for Democrats. 
The mean is a gain for Bush of less than 0.5%.
So I don't see at all how these show a Bush lead of 3-4% at all.  It's more likely that they show a popular vote tied, seeing as how Bush lost the popular vote by about 0.5% in 2000.

One thing your listing there show is, except for one state, MD polls showed the winner of each state.  That's pretty good considering how close things were last round.

Those are the actual 2000 results, not the final M-D polls in 2000.

[Nym90]

I'm sorry.  I thought he was posting the 2000 M-D final poll figures and comparing them with the actual 2000 election results. 

Nope, those are the current Mason Dixon polls. It would seem that he is trying to extrapolate an estimate on the current national popular vote from the Mason Dixon polls (since M-D doesn't do a national poll of course.)