Blue State Mason/Dixons

[The Vorlon]

A small bird left these in my email.  This small bird has been 100% accurate in the past.

Last year my stock portfolio went up 24.3% - so it will go up 24.3% this year too... right..?

The "Blue" Mason Dixons

Pennsylvania

Kerry 46
Bush 45

Oregon

Kerry 46
Bush 45

Iowa

Bush 49
Kerry 43

Wisconsin

Bush 45
Kerry 45

New Mexico 

Bush 49,
Kerry 44

Michigan 

Kerry 47
Bush 46

Minnesota 

Bush 47
Kerry 45

All Polls 625 LVs - Oct 15-18th

[The Vorlon]

What these polls tell us is that all of these states are very close.

Bush up 6% in Iowa is a bit surprising.

These are the last 4 Iowa polls:

Mason Dixon - Bush +6
ARG - TIE
Strategic Vision (R) - Bush +3
Chicago Tribune-  Bush +2

A simple unthinking average of these 4 gives Bush +2.75

Mason-Dixon is I think universally regarded as a very good pollster.

But you never ever believe any one poll.

A poll from a good firm does not mean it is right - it means it has a pretty decent chance of being right

The last 4 polls range from Tied, and ARG is been a bit Bush unfriendly this year, up to Mason-Dixon showing Bush up 6, with two stops in between.

I would read these, taking everything into account, as perhaps a modest Bush lead, but "Tossup" is not a crazy call either.

[The Vorlon]

here is an actual link now

http://www.freep.com/news/latestnews/pm889_20041021.htm

[The Vorlon]

<<iowa>>

I would read these, taking everything into account, as perhaps a modest Bush lead, but "Tossup" is not a crazy call either.

Another "gloat" bump