Blue State Mason/Dixons (user search)
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elcorazon
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Posts: 3,402


« on: October 21, 2004, 09:10:25 AM »

Whoa! Sheet.
Going by these MD polls (todays + yesterdays) the election looks almost over...

Let us not forget:
1. some, even well done polls are wrong.
2. even if correct, they can be off a point or two, which in some of these cases would alter the leader.
3. there's still a couple weeks till the election
4. All have some number of undecideds which could break more to Kerry than Bush.

If I remember correctly the polls basically show Bush winning the Bush states from 2000 and Kerry winning the Gore states from 2000, except that he's tied in Wisconsin and trailing in Iowa (maybe that's the one that blew up?).

If all of them are correct, Kerry would be at 253 (assuming he picks up WI); that would still mean what we've been saying for months:  win OH or FL and Kerry wins; with the margins in those polls, and the other factors I mentioned above, that's not too farfetched.  Keep the faith.
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elcorazon
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,402


« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2004, 09:22:21 AM »

All of these points are valid and good, but simply put the scenario is this:

If Bush wins OH and FL, it's pretty much all over with.  All of these other states would simply be icing on the cake.

If Kerry can win either OH or FL, it causes Bush problems he can overcome, but the chances aren't that good.  The problems are greater with the loss of Florida than Ohio.

All other talk is sort of pointless now.
I agree.  I was just pointing out that it's not "almost over" based on these results, although they are generally good news for Bush.
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