Blue State Mason/Dixons

[ATFFL]

Kerry +1 in Oregon is a lot closer than we've seen, not counting the nutso Riley Research reuslt.

Mason Dixon once showed Bush up 4.  Either a 1 in 20 or a sign that they are better polling the state than others.

More likely the 1 in 20, but it is probably closer than some polls indicate.

[ATFFL]

I don't know...I think the latest round of Mason-Dixons reflect a closer race than that.

Compare the latest M-D results with the 2000 election:

State     2000         M-D             Diff
FL         TIED          GOP +3      GOP +3
CO        GOP +8    GOP +6      Dem +2
MO       GOP +3     GOP +5      GOP +2
NV        GOP +4     GOP +10    GOP +6
NH        GOP +1     GOP +3      GOP +2
NC        GOP +13   GOP +8      Dem +5
OH        GOP +4     GOP +1      Dem +3
WV       GOP +6      GOP +5      Dem +1
IA          TIED          GOP +6      GOP +6
OR         TIED         Dem +1      Dem +1
PA         Dem +4     Dem +1     GOP +3
WI          TIED          TIED           TIED

Six show a gain for Republicans, five a gain for Democrats. 
The mean is a gain for Bush of less than 0.5%.
So I don't see at all how these show a Bush lead of 3-4% at all.  It's more likely that they show a popular vote tied, seeing as how Bush lost the popular vote by about 0.5% in 2000.

You are not taking into account population size. 

GOP +3 in Florida means more than the Dem +3 in Ohio

[ATFFL]

It averages out to about Bush +2%.